964
FXUS62 KMFL 151121
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
721 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A frontal boundary spurred forward by a southern stream mid-level
trough could enter south central Florida by Thursday, briefly
allowing a window for some increased shower and thunderstorm
chances. The weak front lacks the support for more widespread
activity which could provide more substantial relief from the heat
but the available moisture, cooler air aloft, and lift from sea
breeze boundaries and collisions could again allow for some stout
convection on Wednesday at the least.

Temperatures aloft will cool to around -9 to -8 deg C on Wednesday
into Thursday which could support a few strong to severe
thunderstorms across the Lake Okeechobee region Wednesday
afternoon and evening. A mitigating factor for more widespread
convection south of the Lake Okeechobee region is the presence of
the low level jet and other supporting dynamics aloft remaining
either in northern or central Florida on Wednesday. The trough
axis should enter the Atlantic by Thursday though some southward
amplification is possible which will need to be monitored in case
it provides support for additional stout convection on Thursday
coincident with peak heating though mid-level temperatures may
warm a degree or two for Thursday compared to earlier days.

Surface temperatures and dewpoints will continue to run on the warm
side with heat index values in the triple digits each day.
Significant portions of the east coast metropolitan areas could
flirt with 104 to 108 degree heat index values on Wednesday and
Thursday afternoons which could necessitate a Heat Advisory for
some areas. Things are not much better in Southwest Florida where
100 to 106 degree heat index values are widespread. Anyone
sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended exposure to the
outdoors during the peak heating of the day and anyone partaking
in outdoor activities or labor should ensure to take cooling rest
breaks and remain hydrated.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

The main story through this forecast period will be the potential
for hazardous heat which will linger through most of the weekend.
Most of South Florida could experience heat necessitating at
least a Heat Advisory through Saturday and this potential will be
monitored through the week. Afternoon high temperatures are
expected to be in the 90s area-wide each afternoon. Lower to mid
90s will be more likely for coastal areas with portions of
interior South Florida potentially approaching the upper 90s or
low 100s. Overnight low temperatures along the east coast metro
mid to late week could struggle to fall below 80 degrees and even
portions of the Naples metro may not fall below the upper 70s.
This could lead to a period of several days where relentless
sunshine, building heat, and a lack of relief overnight could lead
to escalating heat illness risk.

By the weekend, the mid-level low begins to exit into the Atlantic
off the Mid-Atlantic states with the potential for a southward
advancement of the associated front. If the front is able to move
into the area, it could provide a small bit of relief from the heat
late in the period. If the front stalls to the north, the excessive
heat risk could linger through the end of the forecast period as
southerly flow continues. Guidance is beginning to trend towards the
amplification of the mid-level trough along the Atlantic coast of
Florida late in the period that could potentially provide extra
support to push the boundary through the area to close out the
extended forecast period early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 718 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail throughout the forecast
period. Southerly winds early this morning will increase out of
the SW by late morning across all terminals, and will be gusty at
times through the afternoon hours. Shower and thunderstorm
activity may increase late in the afternoon mainly near KAPF and
KPBI as a weakening frontal boundary approaches from the
northwest.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

Advisory level wind flow will become southwesterly and remain
elevated as the pressure gradient remains tight with low pressure
passing through the Southeast. Cautionary conditions should
continue into the end of the week until the low completely passes.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 136 AM EDT Wed May 15 2024

A moderate rip current risk will linger today as winds only
slowly subside and onshore flow in the seabreeze zone continues.
The risk for rip currents should lessen towards the end of the
week as the low across the Mid-Atlantic moves further away.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            95  79  95  77 /  30  40  50  10
West Kendall     96  76  96  74 /  30  40  50   0
Opa-Locka        96  79  96  76 /  30  30  50  10
Homestead        94  79  94  76 /  30  40  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  94  79  93  76 /  40  30  50  10
N Ft Lauderdale  95  79  94  76 /  40  30  50  10
Pembroke Pines   97  79  98  77 /  30  30  50  10
West Palm Beach  95  76  93  73 /  50  30  50  10
Boca Raton       96  77  96  75 /  40  30  50  10
Naples           90  79  90  77 /  30  30  30   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ650-651-
     670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...RAG
LONG TERM....RAG
AVIATION...Redman