603
FXUS62 KMFL 012329
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
729 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Some fairly robust convection developed this afternoon along
primarily the Lake breeze/east coast sea breeze intersection and
then later this afternoon near the Gulf breeze in SW Florida. This
activity may linger through 9PM or so over SW Florida, but should
become increasingly cold pool dominant thereafter and wane with
lack of heating. Generally dry conditions are then expected
overnight although a few showers can`t be ruled out over the
Atlantic waters and east coast late tonight into early Thursday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

We will continue to see a teaser of the upcoming wet season in the
short term period, with showers and a few afternoon thunderstorms
possible each day. Thursday will generally be less active, as
drier air starts to filter in with a mid-level ridge building over
the area in the wake of a trough passing through today. Convective
activity will generally initiate along East Coast sea breeze
boundaries before moving inland and over the Gulf Coast areas
later in the day. The primary hazards with any thunderstorm would
be heavy downpours and gusty winds. Other than the convective
activity, conditions will be pleasant with an easterly breeze and
mostly clear skies.

Temperatures will range from the low to mid 80s over the East
Coast metro areas to the upper 80s and near 90 over the interior
sections today and tomorrow.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 244 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

As we wrap up the week, the trough will make it`s exit eastward into
the Atlantic as a mid-level ridge gradually moves into the
Southeast. With easterly flow and remnant moisture, there is a
chance for isolated light showers late Thursday before a dry day on
Friday. Through the majority of the long term, a weak body of
surface high pressure will have an influence on the conditions over
the Peninsula, thus keeping it drier and warm. The high will be
situated over the western Atlantic which will lead to consistent
easterly flow near the surface. With the E/SE flow and a quick
moving shortwave trough, there will be a chance (15-30%) for
isolated to scattered showers over the weekend, due to modest
moisture advection and pooling. By late Monday, strong, mid-level
ridging builds back in over the Gulf of Mexico and Southeast. There
is potential for daily isolated showers and storms enhanced by
gulf and sea breezes as we move into the new week. At this point,
however, ensembles indicate that next week will begin mostly dry
as we quickly move towards the wet season which begins mid-month.

Temperatures will be near to just above normal through the extended
period. The highs will rise into the upper 80s across SW FL and
interior, while remaining in the low to mid 80s along the Atlantic
Coast. The overnight lows will be in the 60s, except for low to
mid 70s across the east coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 722 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period.
Isolated-Scattered showers will be possible at the east coast
terminals late tonight through early Thursday afternoon although
confidence only lends itself to VCSH at this point. Winds will
generally become light and variable overnight and then trend
easterly on Thursday, apart from KAPF which will see a shift to
the SW in the afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

Mostly benign conditions will continue through the end of the
week. There will be chances for showers and a few thunderstorms
each day, which could create locally hazardous conditions. Other
than the convective threat, there is not expected to be concerns
for marine conditions. Seas will generally remain at 2 to 4 feet
in the Atlantic waters and 2 feet or less in the Gulf waters.
Winds will be around 10-15 kts out of the east.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Wed May 1 2024

A high risk of rip currents will be present for the Palm beaches
today with a lingering swell and onshore flow. The rest of the
coast will see a moderate risk and it is likely that at least an
elevated risk continues for all beaches along the Atlantic coast
through the end of the week as breezy onshore flow continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  73  84 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     70  86  70  85 /  20  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        72  86  72  86 /  20  20  10  10
Homestead        72  85  72  84 /  20  20  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  73  83 /  20  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  73  84  73  83 /  20  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   72  87  72  87 /  20  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  70  84  71  83 /  20  20  10   0
Boca Raton       72  85  72  85 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           71  89  70  88 /  30  40  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday morning for FLZ168.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Simmons
AVIATION...Carr