174
FXUS65 KPUB 092328
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
528 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rather heavy qpf for our S mtns, especially tonight, with heavy
  wet snow likely for the higher elevations of the S Mtn areas.

- Overall very beneficial wet wx system for the southern mtns and
  adj I-25 corridor region, however far eastern plains will likely
  remain dry.

- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue
  over the area (most numerous in the mountains) from Friday
  into Sunday, then a slow drying trend develops early next
  week.

- Snow levels waver between 9K-10K feet from Friday night into the
  weekend, which will limit any additional snow accums to mainly
  the higher peaks.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Currently...

Scattered showers were noted over a good part of the region at 2 pm,
with lots of clouds region-wide. Best concentration of precip was
noted over the greater San Luis Valley region and adj mtns. Temps
were in the 60s far east plains, 50s I-25 corridor and 40s and 50s
valleys. A general N-NE flow as noted in the low levels over the
region.

Overview...

Guidance is predicting an overall rather impressive wet system to
move over the region during the next 24 hours, with the brunt of the
qpf occurring tonight over the greater southern mtn region, with the
max occurring over the N Sangres and Wet mtns. Overall values at
first glance look a bit overdone but guidance is not holding back at
1 to 2" liquid amounts occurring over parts of the region. For now
cut back a bit on QPF but will not cut back too much. Any snow in
the mtns will be quite wet, and will compress, but I would not be
too surprised if we see a foot or more over the higher elevations of
the Sangres and Wets. Guidance was also showing rather high values
for the San Valley Floor, but have cut back somewhat on these
values. Overall given the deep upslope flow and nice warm air
advection pattern at mid levels, a good part of our fcst area should
do well qpf-wise with this system.

Tonight...

Brunt of precip will come through tonight, especially during the
predawn hours. Wet mtns (especially east slopes), N Sangres and
greater Wet Mtn valley region should see the highest amounts. Expect
to see 3 to 6 inches in the Wet Mtn valley with amounts over a foot
for the Wets and N Sangres. Snow will also fall on the SLV floor but
overall accums should be light

San Juans (especially east slopes), the central mtns and the N
Fremont county should see widespread 4 to 8 inch amounts,

N El Paso county will also see some snow but accums should primarily
be on the exposed surfaces. Teller/PP should see 3 to 10 inches.

The I-25 corridor will also see beneficial precip, with 0.1 to 0.3
inch values by sunrise, but areas east of there may not see much, if
any, precip with this system during this time period.

With deep upslope developing tonight, modest easterly flow will push
over the S mtns into the San Luis vally, and some breezy east winds
will occur over the SLV floor tonight, especially in the Great Sand
Dunes region and La Veta Pass. It will this easterly flow which will
enhance the snowfall over the eastern slopes of the San Juans
tonight and into tomorrow.

Some isolated rumbles of thunder will be possible during this
period.

Tomorrow...

Showery precip will continue over the sam areas where it will fall
tonight, but is expected to be much lighter. However the focus areas
during the daylight hours of tomorrow will be over the CONTDVD
region and the N sangres/Fremont county regions. Brunt of precip
tomorrow will go over to mainly rain showers, except highest
elevations. Temps will be cool over the mtns, SLV, and I-25 corridor
region with temps in the 50s, with 30s and 40s mtns. Farther east on
the plains it will remain dry once again with temps warming into the
60s to around 70F over the far eastern plains.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 243 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

Friday night-Sunday night...The retrograding upper low into the
Great Basin Friday night remains progged to slowly lift back out
across the Central Rockies through the day Sunday, keeping unsettled
weather in the forecast through Mother`s Day weekend. There looks to
be a brief break in shower activity Friday night, especially across
eastern Colorado, before showers and thunderstorms increase in coverage
again Saturday morning across the higher terrain, especially the
southern mtns and the along the ContDvd, with modest southwesterly
orographic flow aloft ahead of the upper system translating into the
Rockies. Scattered to numerous showers and storms over and near the
Saturday morning and afternoon continue to spread east across the
immediate adjacent plains and out across the far southeast Plains
through the afternoon and evening, as instability increases with
the passing system. Showers wane some through Saturday night and
increase in coverage once again Sunday late morning and afternoon.
With limited shear and moisture return (dew pts in the 40s to low 50s)
the threat of severe weather and heavy precipitation is not expected
across the region, as well as a lull in critical fire weather conditions.
Snow levels are expected to waver between 9K-10K feet during through this
period, which will limit any additional snowfall to mainly the higher
peaks through out the rest of the weekend. As for temperatures, generally
at and below seasonal levels are expected through the weekend with highs
in the 60s to low 70s across the Plains, and mainly 40s and 50s across
the higher terrain, save for 30s at the peaks.

Monday-Tuesday...Warmer and drier weather remains in the offing as
upper level ridging builds across the region early next week.
There looks to be enough moisture in place to support isolated
to scattered afternoon showers and storms, which mainly stay
over the higher terrain.

Wednesday-Thursday...Models differ on the timing and location of the
next system moving across the region through the middle of next week,
with the latest GFS stronger and further south with the system, as
compared with the ECMWF solutions. Either way, models indicate
increasing chances of precipitation on Wednesday, along with cooler
temperatures as a front pushes south across the region. Drier west to
northwest flow to prevail across the region on Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 516 PM MDT Thu May 9 2024

An upper low will retrograde and linger over UT and northern AZ
through the forecast period, producing a predominant easterly
flow aloft across the entire area. This will aid in thickening
and lowering cloud cover, as well as widespread pcpn and a
lowering snow level.

Current conditions along much of the I-25 Corridor including
KCOS and KPUB, are VFR but are expected to deteriorate to
MVFR/IFR between 02z and 04z this evening. Showers to develop
between 02z and 04z and will last through 15z-17z Friday.

MVFR/IFR conditions with intermittent -SHRA exist at KALS and
will continue through the period. Rain to mix with snow, and
possibly switch over to all snow, around 03z-04z this evening.
Snow will likely accumulate on grassy surfaces, but there is the
possibility of higher amounts during the overnight period. Moore

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 PM MDT Friday for COZ058-060-
061-063-066-068-072>076-079>082.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HODANISH
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...MOORE