447
FXUS64 KSHV 090520
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1220 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Storms continue to weaken on a widespread basis and we have
allowed Tornado Watch 210 to expire.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Thursday through Friday)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

No other changes at this time except to remove the Tornado Watch
headline from the zone forecast wording for the rest of tonight.
/24/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Quieter weather briefly returns through the weekend before
precipitation chances are reintroduced early next week. Quasi-
zonal flow aloft will allow for a mid-level trough to drift
eastward across the Four Corners into the Southern Plains. This
trough, in combination with ridging shifting further east across
the Mississippi River, will maintain enhanced southerly flow and
moisture through most of early next week. Precipitation chances
will remain through the same time period as a result. /16/

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

For the 06z TAF package, having to account for remnant convection
across our NE TX and SW AR terminal sites but if progs are
correct, this activity should continue to dissipate the closer we
get to sunrise. Boundary interaction near the I-20 Corridor may
tend to limit northward expansion of MVFR/IFR ceilings and will
also need to contend with the development of patchy fog mainly
near and south of the I-20 corridor as well. Do have all terminals
becoming low VFR ceiling wise by late morning and into the
afternoon but introduced VCTS once again with a complex of strong
to severe convection that is forecast to move rapidly eastward
from Central Texas through the tail end of this TAF package.

13

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  90  67  83  62 /  30  50   0   0
MLU  90  65  81  58 /  20  60   0   0
DEQ  86  58  80  53 /  30  30   0   0
TXK  87  62  81  57 /  30  40   0   0
ELD  86  61  80  55 /  20  40   0   0
TYR  88  65  82  60 /  40  40   0   0
GGG  88  65  82  60 /  30  50   0   0
LFK  92  67  84  62 /  30  40   0  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...13