Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
519 FXUS65 KVEF 110812 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 111 AM PDT Sat May 11 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Shower chances along with isolated thunderstorms will occur in eastern Lincoln, northeast Clark and Mohave Counties today. Sunday onward, a sharp climb in temperatures into above normal territory is expected with dry and breezy conditions in the afternoons. && .SHORT TERM...through Sunday night. Radar continues to detect some light rain showers over far northeast Mohave County at this hour. Otherwise, skies are mostly clear to partly cloudy. Everyone`s buzzing about the northern lights. Not only are they visible tonight, but they should be visible through the weekend. The cutoff low over southern Nevada will move steadily east across southern Utah and northern Arizona today. Cyclonic shear associated with the cutoff low will help generate the greatest instability across northwest Arizona, northeast Clark and eastern Lincoln Counties this afternoon and early evening. Again, blended NBM with camPoPs to better capture the convective potential. Gusty outflow winds will occur with stronger storms. Dry and warmer on Sunday as a ridge of high pressure begins to build in from the west. .LONG TERM...Monday through Saturday. Model clusters are in reasonable agreement through Tuesday showing mean ridging just off the Pacific Northwest Coast and weak low pressure over or near southern California. This suggests above normal temperatures and dry conditions, except possibly over the Sierra, where southeasterly upslope flow could kick off a few thunderstorms. Model agreement breaks down pretty quickly thereafter, mainly centered around whether and to what degree to amplify a trough rolling through western Canada. Clusters strongly favor generally dry weather Wednesday through Saturday, but from Thursday onward, temperature forecasts become very uncertain. For example, the ECMWF ensemble MOS gives high temperatures at KLAS ranging from 80F to 99F. Will watch how the pattern evolves over the next few days. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Northerly winds increase to over 10 knots early this morning, decreasing again to less than 10 knots in the afternoon. Showers may develop in northeast Clark County, but confidence is low in any showers reaching the Las Vegas Valley. Outflow winds from showers leading to changes in wind direction and speed cannot be ruled out. By the evening, winds shift to the southwest, maintaining that direction through the night. FEW-SCT mid and high clouds stream across the area throughout the forecast period. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...TAF sites will experience north to northeast winds over 10 knots this morning, decreasing later in the afternoon and evening. One exception is KDAG, where southwesterly winds may remain over 10 knots through the evening. Convection over northern Clark/Mohave counties is not expected to reach the terminals, but outflow winds may bring temporary changes in wind direction and speed. Winds will begin to follow a diurnal pattern starting this evening. FEW-SCT mid and high clouds stream across the area throughout the forecast period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pierce LONG TERM...Morgan AVIATION...Meltzer For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter