215
FXUS65 KVEF 030908
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
208 AM PDT Fri May 3 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions with seasonably warm temperatures are
expected through Friday. Over the weekend, a strong system will move
through the region bringing widespread strong winds along with much
cooler temperatures. Precipitation in the southern Sierra Saturday
will spread across parts of southern Nevada Saturday night and
Sunday Improving conditions are expected early next week with
temperatures slowly moderating.
&&

.SHORT TERM...Through Sunday night.

Everyone enjoy today, because the weekend will be quite turbulent.

There is a weak shortwave moving through southern Idaho early this
morning. Radar is detecting some light showers over northern Utah
with lower clouds extending westward through central Nevada, as far
as Fallon. In southern Nevada and the Mojave Desert skies are clear
with light winds. Skies will stay mostly clear today with afternoon
clouds developing over the mountains of Inyo County and central
Nevada. Temperatures will top out around 5 degrees above normal.

For the weekend, we are still tracking a potent trough that will
drop from the Gulf of Alaska. The trough will move east across
northern California and northern Nevada Saturday night through
Sunday. Primary impact for the entire region will be the onset of
strong south to southwest winds Saturday. Latest guidance suggests
the strongest winds through 5 pm Saturday afternoon will likely be
occurring in the Spring Mountains, Nye, Esmeralda and Inyo Counties.
Specifically for Inyo County, not seeing a significant downslope
signature through 5 pm Saturday but the cross section does indicate
strong southerly winds up the Owens Valley. Current hi-res guidance
is only going through 5 pm Saturday so its possible those downslope
winds may not develop until the evening, coinciding with the trough
axis. Best timing for potential high winds greater than 58 mph for
southern Nye County, Spring Mountains and Las Vegas Area will be
Saturday night into Sunday morning. That period looks to be 8 pm
Saturday evening through 8 am Sunday morning. NBM probability for
wind gusts >58 mph ranges between 30%-50% from Mountains Edge north
to Skye Canyon. Central and eastern parts of the valley mostly 20%
or less. Downward trend in the wind speeds will commence Sunday
afternoon into the evening. Hi-res guidance is only out through
Saturday afternoon but I`d love to see a cross section across the
Spring Mountains and the valley through Saturday night. For that
reason, kept with the high wind watch which will allow the next
shift to hopefully make a more precise decision on which zones need
to be included in a warning and which will fall under the wind
advisory.

Regarding precipitation. Light showers will begin in the southern
Sierra Saturday afternoon then spread east of the Sierra into
southern Nevada Saturday night and Sunday. Up to 2" forecast for
Aspendell in the southern Sierra. Similar amounts possible for the
mountains of northern Lincoln County. 0.5" or less for the Spring
Mountains and Pioche.

Temperatures will start to cool across the northern areas on
Saturday with much cooler conditions areawide on Cinco de Mayo. In
fact, forecast high of 67 for Las Vegas Sunday is only two degrees
warmer than our low maximum record of 65 set in 1973.

.LONG TERM....Monday through Thursday.

As the weekend system moves out, our area will be left under mostly
zonal flow with a touch of a NW component. This pattern looks to
linger through most, if not all, of the work week as persistent
troughing remains just to our north. At the surface, this results in
breezy afternoons with highs roughly 3-8 degrees below normal across
the area. We`ll remain dry as the troughing to our north has very
little moisture to work with. PoPs stay below 10% through Thursday.


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light and will follow
typical diurnal directional patterns through early afternoon when
winds will pick up and swing to the southwest. These southwesterly
winds will persist through tomorrow morning with wind speeds
decreasing during the overnight hours before picking back up on
Saturday morning. Wind gusts in excess of 35 knots are expected on
Saturday and Sunday with a 60% to 70% chance of wind gusts in excess
of 45 knots late Saturday evening through early Sunday morning.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...VGT will follow similar trends to LAS with light and
diurnal winds picking up and swinging around to the southwest during
the afternoon hours. HND will favor a southerly to southwesterly
direction through the evening hours with winds picking up slightly
during the afternoon hours. Light and variable winds will pick up
and swing around to the south later this morning at the Colorado
River Valley TAF sites. These southerly winds will continue into the
evening hours when EED will become more southwesterly while IFP
becomes more southeasterly. DAG will favor a more westerly component
with winds decreasing and becoming west-northwesterly this morning
before picking back up and shifting to the west-southwest during the
afternoon. Light and variable winds will pick up slightly as they
swing to the west-southwest later this afternoon at BIH. These west-
southwesterly winds will be relatively short-lived as winds are
expected to shift to the northwest a few hours later during the
evening hours.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Pierce
LONG TERM...Woods
AVIATION...Stessman

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