Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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FXUS66 KEKA 231105

National Weather Service Eureka CA
405 AM PDT Mon Apr 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain partly cloudy skies and
dry conditions through the middle of the week with temperatures
above normal in the inland areas. Late week and for the weekend
an upper level low approaching the area will bring cooler
temperatures and the chance for showers.


.DISCUSSION...High pressure is in place across the area this
morning. This is bringing mostly clear skies and dry condition.
There are a few high clouds moving overhead this morning as a weak
disturbance moves through. Above normal temperatures will
continue across the area, with most areas seeing a few degrees of
warming over yesterday. This will likely be the warmest day along
the coast. Tuesday the coastal areas will start to see more
onshore flow and stratus as an upper level low starts to approach
the area. This will cool temperatures at the coast and it may
spread inland to the near coastal areas. Wednesday the marine
layer will likely be slightly deeper and the stratus will be a bit
more persistent. Inland temperatures will remain nearly steady
through Wednesday.

Thursday the models show the low getting closer to the coast,
however the ECMWF is still slower with this progression. The main
difference that will be felt is with the afternoon high
temperatures. The ECMWF keeps the warm weather around for one more
day. Generally went with a compromise for the forecast and have
temperatures cooler than on Wednesday, but still above normal in
the inland areas.

Friday and into the weekend the models start to diverge with their
solutions. The ECMWF keeps the low just off the coast on Friday
and moves it onshore on Saturday. The Canadian is similar, but the
GFS quickly ejects the low out of the area and moves an open
trough over the area for the weekend. Both of these solutions will
keep the high temperatures below normal and there will be showers
around. Thunderstorms are possible with best chance on Friday,
but due to the model uncertainty have not added them to the

Sunday and Monday the models really start to show some significant
differences. Solutions range from a strong ridge (the Canadian),
a weak ridge (the ECMWF) and a deep trough (the GFS). Confidence
is low on any particular solution, but a ridge building back in
has been a more consistent solution. MKK


.AVIATION...Some small patches of low clouds and light fog have been
noted near the Redwood Coast overnight, but current conditions are
VFR across all the observing sites. High clouds will likely inhibit
additional radiational cooling for the next few hours, but they may
clear enough to allow some radiational fog to develop in some
coastal plain and inland river valley locations prior to sunrise.
High resolution model data indicates little low cloud formation over
land during the next 24 hours with a low confidence of some
scattered to broken clouds around the Eel River Delta and offshore
Mendocino county. Winds will be light. /SEC


.MARINE...N winds continue to slowly subside and are generally below
advisory criteria across the area. Steep seas have been a bit slower
to fall, so a Small Craft Advisory continues through 9 AM this
morning. Conditions will continue a gradual improving trend through
mid-week with winds shifting to light southerly by week`s end. Nw
swell trains will continue to traverse the area through the period.


     Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning
     for PZZ450-455-470-475.



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