Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

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FXUS64 KHGX 270008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
708 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period.
Surface analysis shows a cold front moving across the Texas
Panhandle early this evening. Expect winds to go light and
variable ahead of the front with northerly winds 5-8 knots
becoming established behind the front after 12Z. 18Z guidance has
backed off on potential for SHRA with front tonight and have
maintained dry TAFs.

Monitoring what appears to be two controlled burns in the Moody
National Wildlife Refuge for potential smoke impacts at GLS.
Expect the plume to waffle between a south and southeast
trajectory through sunset, remaining east of the terminal. Should
it continue this evening, high resolution guidance is fairly
consistent in low level winds veering to the north-northeast
around 05-06Z in response to the location of a surface high over
the Gulf of Mexico. This could possibly allow the plume to make a
run for GLS as a nocturnal inversion around FL008 develops. Have
not included any visibility impacts at this time, but will
continue to monitor plume trends for possible amendments.



.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 PM CDT Thu Apr 26 2018/

Beautiful weather is expected today through the weekend as high
pressure settles in overhead. A reinforcing cold front will pass
through the region overnight tonight but is expected to be dry.
Most people probably will not even notice its passage. Onshore
flow returns this weekend and allows for a slow but steady
moisture return as we head into next week.

Upper level ridging this weekend pushes off to the east early next
week, setting up SW flow aloft. Several shortwaves rotate across
the region during the first half or so of next week, but coverage
will largely depend on timing and available moisture. Right now it
looks like the better coverage could be over Central Texas, but
that can certainly change between now and then. Next big system
looks to push through the area late next week.


No significant forecast concerns through the weekend with generally
light winds and low seas prevailing. A weak reinforcing front will
move into the waters tonight into early Fri morning. Onshore flow
should resume later in the weekend as high pressure moves off to the
east. Long fetch of moderate to strong se winds develops early-mid
parts of next week so expect a corresponding increase in seas
during that timeframe.



College Station (CLL)      54  79  54  82  57 /   0  10   0   0   0
Houston (IAH)              56  80  57  82  59 /   0  10   0   0   0
Galveston (GLS)            64  76  65  76  67 /   0  10   0   0   0




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