Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, OH

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FXUS61 KILN 210243

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1043 PM EDT Tue Mar 20 2018

Snow will continue across the region overnight and through the
day on Wednesday. High pressure will allow for dry conditions
Thursday and Friday. Another system will bring a mix of rain and
snow to the region for the weekend.


Low pressure over western West Virginia will meander overnight
and then diminish as energy moves off to the east. Large shield
of precipitation has blossomed across the area and will continue
tonight into Wednesday. There are still some places in the
eastern counties where the boundary layer is warm enough for
rain or a rain/snow mix, but these locations should change over
to snow shortly. So far accumulations have been quite limited
and mostly on grassy areas, so most of this event has yet to
play out.

There will be some bursts of heavier snow, mainly in
western counties. High resolution guidance still suggests that
an arching band will occur along the western periphery of the
forecast area which corresponds well with forecast axis of
higher snowfall totals. Forecast looks on track with only very
minor adjustments.

The snow will gradually taper off during the day Wednesday.
Given the time of year and higher sun angle, even with clouds
and precipitation, additional accumulations during the day are
expected to be an inch or less.


A weak disturbance working through Wednesday night will keep
clouds in the forecast for awhile Wednesday night. Kept the
forecast dry at this point, however cannot rule out some
flurries or light snow.


Under northwest flow aloft, our region will be on either side of
weak systems to our northeast and southwest Thursday into Friday. At
the surface, high pressure will prevail. Temperatures will remain
chilly for late March with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s.

It still looks like energy will eject eastward from an upper level
low off the Pacific Northwest Coast, which will perturb a wave of
low pressure and warm front. These systems will affect the Ohio and
Tennessee Valleys Friday night into Saturday night. This will bring
the threat of rain, snow, or a rain/snow mix depending on the
diurnal cycle and thermal fields. Highs on Saturday will be cold
given the likelihood of pcpn and much of the region remaining
northeast of the surface low and warm front. Highs will range from
the upper 30s to the lower 40s.

By Sunday into Monday, high pressure at the surface and aloft should
establish itself across the region. Temperatures will gradually

The next threat for pcpn is expected by Monday nigh into Tuesday as
the ridge moves east and energy and frontal boundary encroach from
the west. By this time, it should remain warm enough for just liquid


Snow will cause visibilities to drop to IFR for a good part of
the night. Ceilings will also lower to MVFR/IFR. The snow will
decrease after 12Z which will allow for an improvement in
visibilities initially. Ceilings will be slow to rise but
eventually become VFR by the end of the TAF period. Northerly
winds between 10 and 20 kt will persist with some gusts
especially on Wednesday morning. Winds will back slightly to
northwest and start to diminish late.

OUTLOOK...MVFR ceilings and visibilities are possible
Saturday and Saturday night.


OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for OHZ026-
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for KYZ089.
IN...Winter Weather Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ050-
     Winter Storm Warning until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for INZ066-


LONG TERM...Hickman
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