Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 250915
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
515 AM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.DISCUSSION...

Today/Tonight...The mid-level closed low that generated several days
of unsettled weather will finally lift away from the southeast today
as it becomes absorbed within a northern stream trough digging
through the Great Lakes. The attendant trough axis will swing off
the east coast today, leaving dry and somewhat subsident air in its
wake over the peninsula as zonal flow develops aloft (albeit
temporarily). Will leave the forecast dry into tonight given
precipitable water values of 0.60-0.80". Guidance indicates
shortwave energy passing over northern Florida late today, which
will lead to scattered clouds this afternoon and perhaps a shower or
two over the Atlantic tonight. Temps should rebound nicely as
offshore flow and ample sunshine leads to highs in the mid 80s even
close to the coast. West winds look elevated enough this afternoon
to keep the sea breeze just off the coast, though it may creep
inland at a few locales south of the Cape. Overnight lows near to a
few degrees below their late April climatology: upper 50s to near
60.

Thu...Another cut-off low in the mid levels will rotate across the
southeast US and maintain the broad troughing over the eastern
CONUS. The mid level energy will remain north of EC FL and our
airmass will be quite dry so no rain is expected but there will be
high clouds increasing across the north half. A light westerly
flow will turn onshore in a sea breeze in the afternoon. Max
temps will be a few degrees above average in the mid 80s but
humidity will be low.

Fri...The next shortwave trough will dive farther south into the
northern Gulf of Mexico then across north FL and this will help
drive the next cold front across the area Friday night. Moisture
return ahead of the front will be limited but daytime heating will
combine with cooling temperatures and forcing aloft to initiate
scattered showers and isolated lightning storms during the
afternoon and early evening. Have adjusted PoPs to focus best rain
chances (40 percent) over Orange, Osceola and Brevard decreasing
to 20 percent across the far north and far south. There is a
chance for a few strong storms containing hail and gusty downburst
winds.

Sat-Tue...Behind the cold front, drier air will overspread the
area this weekend with max temps in the low to mid 80s with low
humidity. High pressure to the north is forecast to build over the
area Mon-Tue resulting in a breezy easterly flow developing with a
chance for Atlc showers along the leading edge of this surge. Max
temps early next week in the upper 70s/near 80 along the coast
and low to mid 80s interior. Min temps will be noticeably milder
along the coast, in the upper 60s and lower 70s, due to the
persistent winds off the ocean.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR with scattered clouds developing this afternoon FL040-FL055 with
west winds around 10 knots. Though a sea breeze is expected to
develop south of Cape Canaveral, it will likely remain over the
waters or just east of the aerodromes.

&&

.MARINE...
Today...Post-frontal offshore flow will remain elevated early this
morning around 15-20 knots, generating choppy seas up to 6 feet well
offshore. Winds will begin to decrease after sunrise, but especially
this afternoon as the Atlantic sea breeze circulation develops over
the nearshore waters. Seas 3-5 feet nearshore and 4-6 feet offshore
early this morning, subsiding to 2-3 feet nearshore and 3-5 feet
offshore by this afternoon.

Tonight...Offshore breeze expected to develop after sunset,
increasing to around 10-15 knots. Seas generally 2-4 feet, up to 5
feet well offshore.

Thu...Offshore flow will not be as strong, 5-10 knots, so there
will be a better chance for a 10 knot SE sea breeze near the
coast in the afternoon. A 3 foot east swell will be the primary
contribution to wave height.

Fri...A cold front will approach the waters with a chance for
showers and a few storms pushing offshore during the afternoon
and evening. The offshore flow will increase a bit ahead of the
front, 10-15 knots with seas 2 ft nearshore and 4 ft offshore.

Weekend...A period of NW to N winds around 15 knots should occur
behind the front Friday night and early Saturday and produce
choppy conditions esp in the gulf stream. The pressure gradient
should relax Sat aftn with flow veering NE-E. Weak (baggy)
pressure pattern should exist Sat night and Sunday with wind
speeds less than 10 knots and seas 2-3 feet.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...Post-frontal drying will lead to minimum relative humidity
values mainly in the upper 30s to low 40s, even along the coast
where the sea breeze should remain pinned this afternoon given the
elevated offshore flow between 10-15 mph. Elevated mixing heights
and westerly transport winds will lead to very good to excellent
dispersion.

Min RH values are forecast to fall between 35 and 40 percent Thu
afternoon with SW winds around 10 mph. A slight increase in
moisture Friday ahead of a cold front should produce isolated to
scattered showers and possibly a few lightning storms. Reinforced
drying is expected Saturday behind the front with min RH values
around 35 percent.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  81  59  83  62 /   0   0   0  10
MCO  85  61  87  64 /   0   0   0  10
MLB  85  60  85  62 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  85  58  86  61 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  82  62  85  64 /   0   0   0  10
SFB  84  61  86  64 /   0   0   0  10
ORL  84  62  85  66 /   0   0   0  10
FPR  85  57  86  60 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Ulrich
LONG TERM....Kelly
AVIATION...Ulrich



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