Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pocatello, ID

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FXUS65 KPIH 220931

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pocatello ID
331 AM MDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SHORT TERM...Today through Tue night. A vigorous shortwave trough
and associated cold front are expected to bring clouds and
possible rain/very high elevation snow this afternoon and this
evening, then more rain and a falling snow level for all day Mon
and into Mon night. Right now, the snow amounts barely reach 3 to
6 inches in the central Idaho mountains, and wind in the eastern
Magic Valley/Snake River plain only gets to 25 mph sustained, so
do not expect any sort of Advisory, let along a Warning, to be
necessary. By Tue morning, skies will be clear and high temperatures
will spike back up into the 60s, after plunging 12 to 17 deg F
from today to Mon. Messick

.LONG TERM...Wednesday night through next Sunday night. The extended
portion of the forecast can be summed up in one word: Warm. A weak,
dry Cold Front will offer a modest cool-down on Thursday along with
Northerly winds. Only expecting a 5 or so degree drop from
Wednesday. A Ridge of High Pressure then builds back in for Friday,
with High Temperatures well into the 70s for the Snake Plain and
many adjacent valleys. An organized area of Low Pressure is then
expected to track ashore by late-week. A consensus of available
forecast guidance takes the low through Northern California and
Southern Oregon by late next weekend. Southerly flow will be
maintained in advance of this system -- ensuring continued warm
conditions along with a gradual increase in Clouds and Shower and
Thunderstorm potential as we head through the Weekend. Will need to
monitor the potential for a few stronger Thunderstorms. AD/Messick


.AVIATION...VFR conditions expected for the daylight hours for
the TAF sites, with some breeziness during the afternoon for BYI,
IDA and PIH, although a few Knots lighter than the past couple of
days. An approaching Trough/Cold Front will spread Clouds and
Showers/Isolated Thundershowers across the region Sunday Evening
through Sunday night. SUN will be impacted first, with activity
arriving after 00Z. Some potential for MVFR CIGS after 06Z in
Showers/Iso T. The same holds true for PIH and IDA with activity
arriving shortly after 06Z. Impacts should hold off until after
09Z at DIJ. Enough cold air in place for a potential mix or even
changeover to Snow at DIJ after 09Z. Brief IFR conditions cannot
be ruled out in stronger Showers, with the best potential for this
at DIJ. AD/Messick



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