246
FXUS64 KSJT 091102
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
602 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 234 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Low level moisture will quickly increase across the area through
the early morning hours. Several CAMs indicate isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across portions of
the Concho Valley and northern Edwards Plateau shortly after
daybreak, with this activity tracking east through the morning
hours. Confidence remains low in this solution, but if storms do
develop, a few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible. Slight
chance PoPs were kept for this time frame to account for the
possibility.

A cold front is forecast to track south across the area today.
Ahead of the front, hot temperatures are forecast, with highs in
the 90s. Behind the front, gusty north winds and much cooler
temperatures are expected. Highs across the northern Big Country
will be in the 70s, with highs across the southern Big Country in
the low to mid 80s. Farther south, highs will generally be in the
low to mid 90s, although a few locations could top out in the
upper 90s. These highs, especially across central portions of the
forecast area, might be a bit too high, if the front is slightly
faster than currently forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms are possible this afternoon, east of
the dryline and south of the cold front. The extent of coverage
this afternoon will be dependent on how much, if any, convection
develops across the region this morning. At this point, have kept
PoPs in the slight chance to low end chance category, mainly
confined to our eastern counties. Any storms that develop will
likely become severe, with large hail and damaging winds being the
main hazards, although a tornado is also possible. Most of the
storms should be east of the area by this evening. Expect
overnight lows in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 326 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Cooler temperatures along with precipitation chances are still
anticipated this weekend.

Expect highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s Friday, with
increasing clouds and breezy northeast winds.

Saturday into Sunday continues to look promising for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Medium range models are in fairly good
agreement with the evolution of the upper level pattern from
Friday night into Sunday. An upper level low will move from
northwestern AZ into the southern plains. As this trough
approaches, shortwaves will move over Texas in southwest flow
aloft. At the surface east to southeast flow will result in
upslope lift, especially to our west. In addition, the cold front
that will move through the area today will be returning back to
the north as a warm front. All this should be enough to bring some
scattered showers and thunderstorms into the area from Saturday
into Sunday. As far as strength of storms, plenty of deep layer
shear will be available, but low level instability is expected to
be fairly low until during the day Sunday. So, while thunderstorms
will be possible, most should remain below severe levels from
Saturday into Saturday night, with stronger storms possible
Sunday.

Expect precipitation to move out of the area by Monday night, and
we`ll see a warming trend for the first half of next week. The
next chance for precipitation will begin affecting the area by
late Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Thu May 9 2024

Patchy stratus will result in MVFR to IFR ceilings at all sites
this morning. In addition, patchy fog may result in reduced
visibilities, especially at KBBD. Expect a return of VFR
conditions by mid to late morning. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are possible this morning, so have continued the
mention of VCSH at KSJT, KBBD, and KJCT. Additional thunderstorms
are possible at KBBD this afternoon. A cold front will move
through the area today. Ahead of the front winds will be from the
west at 8 to 12 knots, while winds behind the front will be from
the north at 12 to 15 knots, with higher gusts.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     86  60  78  59 /  20  10  10  10
San Angelo  95  61  82  61 /  10  10  20  20
Junction    97  64  84  62 /  20  10  20  20
Brownwood   87  60  78  59 /  30  20  10  10
Sweetwater  82  58  77  59 /  10  10  10  10
Ozona       95  63  80  62 /  20  10  30  20
Brady       90  63  78  61 /  30  10  20  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Daniels
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...Daniels