Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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270 FXUS61 KAKQ 270019 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 819 PM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Low pressure quickly tracks northeast from the Deep South tonight, then crosses the local area Friday morning. Dry weather is on tap for Saturday and Sunday, although a cold front passing Saturday night may cause a few showers. Warmer weather arrives next week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Weak high pressure traversing the area this afternoon will slide offshore this evening. Meanwhile, low pressure currently over northern AL will quickly track northward tonight. Clouds have thinned so far today allowing for a partly to mostly sunny sky. However, do anticipate clouds to be on the increase from S to N by this evening and overnight as the aforementioned low begins to lift NE from the Deep South. Will continue to watch the seabreeze boundary across eastern NC, which so far has not generated any isold shwrs, to see if a stray shower eventually is able to track into NE NC (~20% PoPs remain). For tonight, a quick increase in PoPs is expected this evening, then especially after 06z as the low enters the FA from the SW. Have chc PoPs 30-50% across the Piedmont thru 03z, then spreading east to the I-95 corridor by 06z when PoPs will increase to 50-90% across the Piedmont. After 06z, likely to categorical PoPs (60-100%) spread across the entire area, highest across the NW half of the FA. Lows tonight from the nr 50 NW to the upper 50 SE. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 320 PM EDT Thursday... Keeping PoPs 50-75% NE half of the FA Fri morning...tapering to 30-40% far SW as the low reaches the Delmarva. Models show ribbon of CAPE (to 500-750 J/KG) moving across the FA late tonight/Fri morning w/ period of enhanced UVM. Have kept a SLGT CHC of tstms from about 06Z- 18Z/26. Locally heavy rain is possible. The low pressure area lifts to the NE of the local area Friday afternoon, but with an attendant cold front nearby eastern VA that pushes offshore by 00z Sat. This will necessitate keeping 20-30% (for SHRAS/tstms) over the FA. Otherwise...mostly cloudy Fri morning, then VRB clouds-becoming partly sunny in the afternoon. Total QPF ranging from the 0.1-0.2" in SE VA/NE NC to 0.50-1.25" across the NW. Highs Friday from the upr 60s N-NW and at the coast to the mid/upr 70s central/southern locales. Improved conditions Fri night and Sat, although do expect a weak cold front to approach from the NW late Sat afternoon. Partly to mostly clear during this time. Lows Fri night from the upr 40s NW to the mid 50s SE. Highs Saturday mainly in the mid/upr 70s, except upr 60s-low 70s at the beaches. A potent upper low meanders across the eastern Great Lakes Saturday night and will force the weak cold front through the local area. Models now more bullish with indicating the possibility of showers with the fropa Saturday night. Thus, have added 20-30% PoPs for all but the far SW FA. Lows Saturday night from the low 40s NW to the low 50s SE. High pressure arrives for Sunday in the wake of the cold front. Cooler with plenty of sunshine. Highs in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 350 PM EDT Thursday... Upper low centered over New England slowly moves offshore Mon/Mon night. This will allow an upper level ridge to build over the eastern third of the country starting on Tuesday. Once the upper ridge arrives, it will be slow to break down. This will set the stage for our warmest stretch of the year so far. No rain/t-storm chances through the extended period. Long range guidance indicates that rain chances return next weekend as the ridge slowly breaks down. Highs around 70 Monday warming to ~80 on Tuesday (with 70s on the Ern Shore). Expect mid 80s in central VA/low 80s over the Ern Shore on Wed/Thu. Cool with lows in the 40s on Mon/Tue. Milder with lows between 55-62 on Wed/Thu. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
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As of 820 PM EDT Thursday... VFR conditions continue through ~06z, then SHRAs move in from SW to NE around or just after 06z tonight. SHRAs will be most widespread at RIC/SBY, but all sites will likely see some rain. Any lingering rain will exit all terminals by 12-15z Friday. Low end MVFR ceilings will accompany the SHRAs at all sites. Have included IFR ceilings at RIC/SBY starting around 10z. IFR CIGS will persist the longest (until ~16z) at SBY. Confidence in IFR conditions at RIC/SBY is moderate. There is a low prob of IFR conditions from 10-13z at PHF, but did not include it in the TAF. Ceilings will slowly improve after 15z Wednesday, and will be VFR (BKN between 3-5k feet) at all sites except SBY by 18z. There is a low chance of a few ISO showers/tstms after 18z Friday at all terminals. Mainly VFR conditions expected Sat/Sun.
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&& .MARINE... As of 355 PM EDT Thursday... SCA Headlines remain in effect into this evening for southern coastal waters and decided to extend them through Fri aftn farther north. This is marginal and due primarily to long period ESE swell, but general trend is for some increase in easterly flow later tonight and on Fri so think its going to be difficult for the seas to fall below 5 ft. Otherwise, E to SE winds avg 5-10 kt and will increase to 10-15 kt most areas later this evening/overnight. As the low pressure system moves NE and across the VA coastal plain Fri morning and eventually to the Delmarva fri aftn, winds will shift to the SSW. This area of low pressure is not very strong, so winds during this period are only expected to avg 10-15 kt and at this point have not raised any additional SCA headlines other than those over the Ocean. Relatively light winds Sat, then as a cold front crosses the waters Sat night, expect that we will need some SCA headlines over the Bay and possibly the rivers/sound as there will be some cold air advection moving across the area into Sun morning. Winds stay somewhat elevated and another secondary surge is likely Sun night (though Sun-Sun night will probably stay slightly below SCA thresholds). Genly lighter winds Mon-Tue. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for ANZ654- 656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for ANZ650-652. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ALB/JDM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI/JDM MARINE...LKB/TMG

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