Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 221956 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 356 PM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast through tonight. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through midweek. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered just offshore, and extending back NW into the Great Lakes region. To the north, a weak upper trough is sliding across the northeast and northern Mid-Atlantic. Farther west, a potent upper level/closed low continues to slide slowly east across the southern plains toward the lower Mississippi River Valley, with an inverted surface trough developing over the west-central Gulf coast region. Afternoon MSAS data continues to show pressure falls over the deep south, in the vicinity of developing sfc low pressure in E Louisiana into MS. It is this feature that will slowly lift our way tonight through Monday, bringing steadily increasing rain chances Monday evening through midweek. Mid to high clouds have increased as expected, and will continue to do so through late afternoon, especially inland. Clouds briefly thin a bit with passage of upper trough and with loss of heating early this evening. However, expect clouds to thicken and lower all over again after midnight as the upper low nudges closer into the mid-south. Local area remains under the influence of sfc high pressure positioned just off the coast. Another dry night with any pcpn staying well W-SW of the local area. Expect a partly to mostly clear night north, partly cloudy south with low temps ranging through the 40s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Short term period characterized by gradually deteriorating conditions Monday and Monday night, as aforementioned southern stream low lifts out of the southeast through Monday night, with the attendant sfc low sliding E-NE along the southeast coast Monday afternoon through Tuesday, reaching a position along the Carolina coast Tue night. This keeps the local area on the cooler side of the system with a general light to moderate rain expected to overspread the area. Most of Monday will be dry across the local area, with the exception of some low chc POPs SW (for isolated to widely sct showers after 18Z) of the I-85 corridor. Otw, becoming cloudy with highs in the 60s except for upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa Mon night except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take until 12Z Tue morning to reach. Pops ramp up to categorical south of I64 Monday night/Tuesday morning, with high end chc to likely pops to the north. Lows Mon night mid 40s nw to mid 50s se. Tue looks breezy and wet, courtesy of strong (albeit slightly weakening) onshore flow and upper forcing. Still appears enough lift/moisture for periods of moderate to heavy rainfall. Event total qpf ~1.5-2" inland, tapering to ~1 far NE sections. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se. Drier, albeit with lingering clouds for Wednesday. Slightly warmer with some peeks of sun likely. Still enough remnant low to mid level moisture for a few showers, so will maintain chc Shower wording. Highs in the mid 60s to low 70s, with a few mid 70s possible across the southern tier. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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As of 355 PM EDT Sunday... A fast moving shortwave is forecast to track from Georgia to ern North Carolina Thursday-Friday AM. 22/12z GFS has 999mb sfc low pressure centered over SE VA at 12z Friday with around 1 inch of QPF over much of the CWA. The most recent 12z ECMWF has a much weaker low pressure system centered around 150 miles to the southeast with less than a quarter inch of QPF confined to SE VA/NE NC. Kept PoPs between 25-35% with the highest values in the southeastern CWA given the differences between the guidance. Highs in the upper 60s on the Ern Shore/low 70s elsewhere Thu-Fri. A more potent mid-level shortwave is still forecast to track over the northeastern US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as a cold front passes through the region. Once again, there are differences between the guidance regarding the strength and timing of the storm system. Therefore, have carried slight chc/chance PoPs from Friday through 00z Saturday. Highs in the mid-upper 60s Saturday warming to around 70 on Sunday. Lows in the mid 40s to around 50 next weekend.
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&& .AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 145 PM EDT Sunday... VFR through the 18Z TAF period. Expect E/SE winds at 5-10 kt this afternoon. FEW cu possible at ~5k feet through 22-23z for RIC/SBY/ECG. High clouds gradually lower after 12z Monday from SW to NE. Winds increase out of the E to 10-15 kt during the day Monday. Outlook: Expect conditions to deteriorate from SW to NE Monday night as a large area of rain approaches the CWA. This will result in flight restrictions throughout the day Tuesday at all terminals. Restrictions will likely last through ~12z Wed before conditions slowly improve during the day. Winds remain E for all sites at ~10 kt through 9z Tue. East winds increase to between 15-20 kt (gusts to ~25 kt) at ORF/PHF/SBY/ECG during the day on Tue and last through 0z Wed. Slightly lower winds (E at 10-15 kt) expected at RIC during this timeframe. Winds decrease after 00z Wed and turn to the SW by Wed afternoon. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... High pressure centered over New England will prevail across the region through tonight, allowing for a SE wind of 5-15. Waves/seas 1- 2 ft. High pressure pushes off the Srn New England coast Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lifts from the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. This will result in increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by Monday, and then 15-25kt by Tuesday/Tuesday night. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft, with 4-5ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (2-4ft elsewhere in the Bay). SCAs will eventually be needed for this time frame. Broad low pressure lifts north of the region during Wednesday with SSW winds 5-15kt becoming NW in the wake of the low Wed night into Thurs morning. The next low pressure system then impacts the region Friday/Saturday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MAM NEAR TERM...MAM SHORT TERM...MAS/MAM LONG TERM...ERI AVIATION...ERI MARINE...AJZ is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.