Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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710 FXUS61 KAKQ 100021 AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 821 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 .SYNOPSIS... An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through Thursday, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms occuring both days. The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
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As of 820 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Numerous showers and thunderstorms will slide eastward through southeast Virginia and the lower Maryland Eastern Shore through Midnight, potentially impacting portions of northeast North Carolina. -The severe threat will continue to diminish as the storms move east late this evening. -Localized instances of flash flooding will also be possible. SVR Watches 497 and 499 will remain in effect from 10pm- Midnight, respectively, to account for the line of thunderstorms currently moving eastward through southeast VA and lower MD. Isolated instances of strong winds and also localized flash flooding will be the main threats as this activity pushes east through Midnight/early Thurs AM. After storms exit, low temperatures will fall into the lower-mid 70s overnight.
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&& .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Numerous thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon through late evening on Thursday. -Scattered thunderstorms are still expected on Friday and Saturday as the unsettled pattern continues. - The flooding threat will be highest on Thursday, but could continue on Friday and Saturday. An upper trough axis crosses the area on Thursday before moving to our east on Friday. Numerous tstms are expected across much of the area on Thursday, with the highest coverage shifting a bit to the south. Temps only warm into the mid 80s-90F...which will lessen the severe threat (but SPC still has a Marginal Risk for damaging wind gusts). Given that PWs will still be around 2.0" on Thursday (in addition to the rain that fell yesterday and is expected today), WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall across much of the area. We finally start to see some upper height rises on Friday and Saturday, but diurnally driven tstms will continue each day (although coverage will be less than what is expected on Thursday). Additionally, the swath of 2.0"+ PWs will be shunted to our SE by Friday/Saturday. So while there is certainly a possibility of flooding, it won`t be as high (or widespread) as what is expected today/Thu. Temperatures will be around seasonal averages on Fri/Sat.
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&& .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Message: - Staying seasonably warm and humid through early next week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting. A more seasonable (but somewhat unsettled) July weather pattern is expected late this weekend into early next week. The upper ridge will try to build back toward the area, with decently fast zonal flow aloft expected across the northern United States and southern Canada. This will result in typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day from Sun-Tue. The good news is the storm coverage will be isolated to perhaps scattered. Exact details are difficult to pinpoint this far out, but the main concern with any storms will likely be localized flash flooding given the rain expected from today-Saturday. Highs each day will be around seasonal averages for this time of year (upper 80s/around 90F). && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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As of 800 PM EDT Wednesday... As of 00Z, storms were moving east of KRIC and will impact KSBY between 00Z-02Z. VSBY will be reduced to around 2SM at SBY during the heaviest rain with wind gusts up to 30kt possible. Have a TEMPO group included at KPHF as it looks more likely that a storm will impact the terminal around 02Z. Low confidence in any storms making it to the SE terminals, so will keep and eye on progression of any storms and amend TAFs for KORF/KECG as necessary. Outside of storms, winds will be SSW at less than 10 kt overnight. Expect MVFR to IFR CIGS to develop overnight (after 06Z)...lowest at KRIC/KSBY. Outlook: Scattered to numerous afternoon-late evening tstms are expected on both Thu and Fri, along with the potential for early morning ground fog/stratus.
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&& .MARINE... As of 255 PM EDT Wednesday... Key Messages: - Benign marine conditions continue as high pressure offshore keeps SSW winds. - Another round of showers and strong storms is likely late this afternoon into the overnight period. High pressure well offshore and a surface trough inland is resulting in SSW winds 10-15 kt. Sub-SCA conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period. However, the gradient tighten ups a bit this evening as the inland/lee trough sharpens late tonight. A brief period of SCA winds are possible in the mouth of the Ches. Bay late tonight/early tomorrow, but confidence is not high on reaching the threshold, as local wind probs continue to keep 30-40% chance of sustained 18 kt winds during this period. In addition, CAMs show the highest wind speeds to be associated with the convection, which would be handled with SMWs. Strong to severe storms will be a concern again this evening into tonight with slightly better flow aloft than was present yesterday. Gusty winds and frequent lightning are the main marine threats from storms this evening. Beyond tonight, the sub-SCA SSW winds will continue tomorrow and Friday with winds becoming 5-10 kt by Friday morning, but afternoon and evening convection continues. There is a Low Rip Current Risk at all beaches today and Thursday. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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MD...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for MDZ021>025. NC...None. VA...Flood Watch until 2 AM EDT Thursday for VAZ060>062-065>069- 075>090-511>523. MARINE...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...JDM NEAR TERM...JDM SHORT TERM...ERI/JDM LONG TERM...ERI/JDM AVIATION...JDM/JKP MARINE...KMC/RHR