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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 171829
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
229 PM EDT Tue Apr 17 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry...cool weather expected through tonight then warmer mid
week as high pressure slides by to our south. Gusty west winds
will accompany a cold front crossing the region Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Cool/dry wx continuing through the rest of the day as lo pres
circulates invof SE Canada/NE CONUS. Mainly W winds will be
gusty to 20-30 mph w/ SCT-BKN CU. Highs in the l-m50s N to l60s
SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Mstly clr this evening with some low-mid level clouds coming back
into the wrn zones after midnight. Lows from the mid 30s north to
lwr 40s south. Once again, temp / dp temp range not conducive for
any frost development.

Winds shift back to SW Wed ahead of low pres diving ESE into the OH
Valley. Milder with highs ranging in the 60s across the eastern
shore and near the water to the low-mid 70s west of the bay.

Low pressure tracks east across Ohio/PA Wed night then into srn New
England Thurs. Best support for pcpn with this systm will remain
well to the north with only limited moisture south of its track.
Dry and milder Wed night with more clouds across the north. Lows in
the 50s except some upr 40s ern shore areas. Latest data suggests
the a few shwrs are psbl across the lwr Md ern shore Thurs morn
closest to the low and assctd frontal boundary. Otw, expect gusty
west winds to develop along with a drop in dew point temps / humidity
levels. Highs 65-70 north, 70-75 south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Below normal temperatures are expected through the extended period.
NW flow aloft maintains dry/cooler wx will prevail for Thu-Sat.
Lo pres will be exiting the central Plains Sat...tracking E and
approaches the (lower) mid-Atlantic and SE states Sun-Mon...resulting
in increasing clouds and 20-30% PoPs. Some drying from the N anticipated
attm during next Mon.

Lows Thu night in the u30s NW-m40s SE. Highs Fri in the m-u50s E to
around 60F W. Lows Fri night from the u30s NW to the l-m40s. Highs
Sat in the m50s at the coast to 60-65F inland. Lows Sat night in
the 40s. Highs Sun in the u50 N-l60s S. Highs Mon 60-65.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions expected at all sites through the forecast
period. SCT-BKN ceilings around 5k feet along with gusty west
winds between 15-25 kts will last through early evening. Winds
start to diminish after 22z and become light/variable overnight
before turning to the S/SW by 12z Tuesday.


Outlook: VFR conditions expected through Thursday. A period of
BKN VFR ceilings will move from south to north during the day on
Tuesday. A cold front will cross the region on Thursday
accompanied by BKN (VFR) CIGS and gusty WNW winds.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
SCA headlines now in effect for entire marine area as winds have
increased overnight, and expected to remain in the 15-20 kt range at
times through this aftn. Seas also to continue at 4-6 ft through
this aftn.  Marine conditions then improve into tonight into Wed as
low pressure over New England advances into Canada and a weak ridge
of high pressure builds over the Mid Atlantic. Next cold front
crosses the area Thu, with another round of marginal SCA conditions
expected following the front late Thu into Thu night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Will likely be looking at potential enhanced fire wx concerns
Thu due to expected gusty WNW winds and lowering dew points/lo
afternoon RH. This will all depend on how fast the 10 hour fuels
dry up after the recent rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
River flood warnings remain in effect for the James River at Bremo
Bluff and Meherrin River at Lawrenceville.  See FLSAKQ for details.
Latest guidance has RIC Westham and RIC locks going above flood
stage tonight. Will hold off on any warning for now and allow the
day crew / SH to evaluate new guidance when it comes in this morning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ630>638.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650-
     652-654-656-658.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ALB
NEAR TERM...ALB
SHORT TERM...MPR
LONG TERM...ALB
AVIATION...ERI/MPR
MARINE...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...
HYDROLOGY...