548
FXUS61 KAKQ 300715
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
315 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and
out to sea today, as a weak cold front approaches from the
northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight through
Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday
into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and
Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend, as another
cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, a strong upper level ridge remains in place
across the eastern US and ~1020mb high pressure is centered off
the southeast US coast. Skies are generally mostly clear with a
few higher clouds beginning to approach the region from the
west. Mild early this morning with temperatures generally in the
mid to upper 60s (a few locations are still in the lower 70s).
Temperatures will generally fall back into the low to mid 60s as
we approach sunrise, with a few pockets of upper 50s possible in
the typically cooler locations.

High pressure that is centered off the southeast US coast will
shift further off the coast and out to sea today as a cold front
begins to approach from the northwest. Another very warm day is
expected for today with a mostly sunny sky becoming partly sunny
(due to increasing high clouds). High temperatures will be
fairly similar to yesterday, just a degree or two cooler
(generally mid to upper 80s except right along the coast). Dry
weather is expected through the daylight hours. Overnight, there
is a low chance (~20% or less) for an isolated shower or storm,
with the best chances across northwestern portions of the
forecast area (closer to the boundary). It will be another mild
night with lows in the 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves
through the local area during the day on Wednesday. Latest CAMs
focus the majority of the shower/thunderstorm chances across
southeastern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, with
the forecast trending drier for locations further northwest. Total
QPF will generally be ~0.25" across southeastern portions of the
area (locally higher in thunderstorms). Inland, temperatures will be
slightly cooler compared to the past couple of days with highs
generally forecast in the lower 80s. Closer to the coast and along
the MD/VA Eastern Shore, an onshore breeze develops Wednesday
afternoon leading to highs in the 70s and possibly upper 60s across
the far NE (Ocean City MD). Any shower/storm activity comes to an
end shortly after sunset Wednesday evening, with dry conditions
returning for Wednesday night. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 50s. Will have to watch for the potential for some patchy fog
formation late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with the NAM being
the most aggressive.

Dry and warmer on Thursday as the upper ridge builds back over the
Eastern US and high pressure builds at the surface. Highs will range
from the mid 80s inland to the 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast
(due to an onshore wind). Low temperatures will generally be in the
upper 50s (mid 50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather through Friday.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over New England or
just offshore, resulting in continued onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland. Highs
on Friday in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the lower
70s to upper 60s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlantic
beaches of the Eastern Shore).

A cold front will gradually approach from the NW Saturday, gradually
crossing/decaying across the area Sunday into Monday. Rain chances
increase during the day Saturday, with the highest chances likely
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Clouds, rain, and an onshore
wind will keep temperatures cooler on Saturday with highs in the 60s
across the northern and northeastern portions of the area to to the
mid to upper 70s across the south. Unsettled conditions will
continue Sunday into Monday as the front slowly decays across the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 06Z/30
TAF period. SSW winds will avg 5-10 kt early this morning, with
SW winds 10-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt later this morning
through this afternoon. High clouds will be on the increase
today, becoming BKN-OVC later this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook: Showers or thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday
into Wednesday evening (best chances at the SE terminals), with
brief flight restrictions possible in any storms. Dry/VFR
conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday. There is chance
for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions late
Friday night through Saturday with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into
the weekend.

Strong high pressure remains anchored offshore from the SE CONUS
early this morning. A weak cold front/low pressure is located to the
NW of local waters. Enough of a pressure gradient exists between
these features to allow for breezy conditions. Latest obs indicate
SSW winds of 10-15kt with a few gusts to 20kt. Breezy conditions are
expected to continue through the day as the aforementioned front
approaches the coast. Southerly winds over coastal waters increase
to 15-20kt this afternoon. The front is expected to cross local
waters by Wed morning. Behind the front, winds diminish to 5-10kt,
turning westerly, then to the NE through the day Wed. Onshore flow
at 5-10kt then continues through the end of the week.

Latest buoy obs indicate seas of 2-3ft. Waves are 1-2ft. Given
breezy conditions today, seas are expected to increase to 3-4ft
during the afternoon and evening. May see seas up to 5ft out near
20nm, but will hold off on issuing SCAs for now. Seas drop back to 2-
3ft by Wed evening. Waves stay at 1-2ft through the end of the week.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

No record highs were set yesterday, 4/29. SBY has a chance today,
while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974
* ORF: 93/1988
* SBY: 86/2017
* ECG: 90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...AM
CLIMATE...