465
FXUS61 KAKQ 080519
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
119 AM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The post-tropical remnants of Chantal lift north of the area
through tonight, with showers and storms tapering off this
evening over coastal VA and Maryland. Behind the storm, mild,
muggy conditions are expected tonight, with very warm and humid
conditions are expected for the latter half of next week. A
rather stagnant, unsettled pattern takes hold for the rest of
the week, with mainly hit or miss type afternoon and evening
showers and storms possible each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- Drying out, with warm and muggy conditions overnight.

Any lingering showers and thunderstorms from earlier this
evening have largely come to an end with the loss of daytime
heating. Decreasing clouds, warm and muggy overnight with lows
in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Some patchy fog possible toward
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

- A weakening cold front approaches the area through midweek,
  then stalls north of the area. This front will be the focus
  for afternoon and evening storms tomorrow and through late
  week.

- A Slight Risk for severe storms is now in place for much of
  the northern half of our area, including central and eastern
  VA, Richmond Metro and the bay side of the MD eastern shore.
  A Marginal Risk for severe storms is in place for the rest of
  the area.

- A Slight Risk for Heavy Rainfall is also in place for the
  northern half of the area, with a Marginal Risk farther SSE.

-  A Heat Advisory is in effect for most of the area for
   Tuesday.

More typical July weather is on the way for the midweek period,
with the hot and moderately humid airmass returning, along with
daily thunderstorm chances. An upper trough slides across the
Great Lakes tomorrow, shunting a weakening sfc front toward the
region from the northwest. As is typical for this time of year,
the boundary is likely to become stalled just NNW of the FA
tomorrow evening, with that front then meandering in place for
the rest of the week.

Heat Headlines: Highs tomorrow will be in the low-mid 90s,
which in tandem with dewpoints in the low to mid 70s bring heat
indices approaching 105 for much of the area (primarily along
and E of I-95). Further complicating matters, we expect late
afternoon and evening scattered storms across the area with
highest coverage in the NW by evening, shifting over to the
Eastern Shore later in the evening. That said, late timing
allows a full to nearly full heating day across the area, with
most if not the entire area reaching 103-108 deg heat indices,
not unusual for early July, but nonetheless within Heat Advisory
criteria. For that reason, a Heat Advisory has been issued for
most of the area, with the exception of the far NW that may mix
a little bit better and could see mid afternoon convection.

Severe/Heavy Rain threat: To that end, SPC has upgraded much of
the northern half of the area (except coastal MD/VA eastern
shore E of US-13) to a convective Slight Risk for severe, with a
Marginal Risk for the rest of the area, with damaging wind
gusts as the main threat. However, confidence is low since the
flow aloft looks rather week and storms will be relying on large
amounts of instability and water-loaded downdrafts. A SlightPTC
Risk ERO will also be in place across the northern half of the
area nearer to the stalling front, with a Marginal Risk ERO
for south central VA and SE VA/NE NC. Again with slow steering
flow, instances of flash flooding remain a concern. Will not
extend or re-issue Flood Watches at this time for tomorrow or
Wednesday, but additional targeted flood headlines may well be
necessary tomorrow and as the week wears on given the rather
stagnant/persistent warm/muggy setup, with numerous rounds of
sct convection and heavy rainfall likely.

Wednesday: Wednesday looks largely the same, except a couple of
degrees cooler with highs in the low 90s due to earlier and
more widespread storm coverage, with the stalled front again
serving as the focus for afternoon and evening convection.
Another Slight Risk north/Marginal south for heavy rainfall on
Wednesday, with a Marginal severe risk area wide. Heavy rain
and isolated flooding will again be possible with gusty winds
the main severe threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 250 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- Staying seasonably very warm and humid through the end of the
  week with mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

The typically warm and unsettled pattern continues to end the
week and into the weekend. Highs each day will be around norms
for this time of year i.e. upper 80s/around 90. We will continue
to see diurnal showers and thunderstorms each day through Sun.
Thursday looks like the highest coverage day of the period as
of now owing to potential development of weak low pressure near
the FA/along the front. Will say that exact details are
difficult to latch on to at this point since a lot of it will
be conditional upon where the meandering front goes and when,
plus the weaker flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Tuesday...

Mainly dry and VFR through at least early afternoon. There is a
low potential for some ground fog early this morning at
SBY/PHF, though probabilities too low to include this in the
TAFs. Scattered tstms develop NW of the terminals this aftn
ahead of a weak cold front before pushing toward the area this
evening. Tstms will likely make it close to RIC/SBY before
weakening after 04z/midnight. The most likely time for
convection at the terminals is 22-04z. Have PROB30 groups at
RIC/SBY/PHF with no mention of thunder at ORF/ECG where PoPs are
lower. Any tstm will be capable of producing brief LIFR VSBYs in
+RA along with variable gusty winds of 30+ knots. Dry/VFR after
06z Wed with a slight chc of a shower/tstm near the coast.

Outlook: Mainly VFR from Wed-Fri with scattered to numerous
afternoon-late evening tstms each day, along with some early
morning ground fog/stratus.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 1005 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

- SCAs are in effect until tomorrow morning for Lower
  Chesapeake Bay.

- A Moderate Rip Current Risk continues for all beaches
  Tuesday.

- Sub-SCA conditions prevail Tuesday-Friday with daily
  thunderstorm chances.

The remain surface trough from Chantal is lifting NE along the
NJ coast. The wind has shifted to SW behind this system and is
generally 5-15kt late this evening. High pressure builds off the
Southeast coast tonight and this should allow for an increase
in SW flow. Given this, the SCA has been maintained for the
Lower Bay. However, seas have dropped below 5ft for the coastal
waters and peak gusts overnight are only ~20kt. Therefore, the
SCA has been cancelled for the coastal waters.

For tomorrow, winds will be out of the S-SW between 10 TO 15 kt
across the bay and 15 to 20 kt across the ocean. The daily chances
of showers and thunderstorms do increase for tomorrow afternoon.
These thunderstorms could potentially bring gusty wind that could
bring elevated winds and seas across the local waters. The stronger
thunderstorms will be handled with SMWs.

Rip Currents: A Moderate Risk of rip currents continues across all
beaches Tuesday. This is due to ~3 ft nearshore waves.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for MDZ021>024.
NC...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening
     for VAZ062-064>069-075>090-092-093-095>100-511>525.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for ANZ632-
     634.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...AJB/MAM
SHORT TERM...AC/MAM
LONG TERM...AC/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJZ/HET