Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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000 FXUS61 KAKQ 232041 AFDAKQ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wakefield VA 441 PM EDT Fri Mar 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A weak trough will drop southeast and across the region early tonight. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build down into and over the area tonight into Saturday morning. Low pressure moves east from the Mississippi Valley during Saturday, then across the Carolinas and off the coast Saturday night into Sunday morning. High pressure will build in from the north Sunday afternoon through Monday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A weak trough will drop SE and acrs the area early tonight, producing or maintain SCT-BKN SC-AC (5000-10000 ft). Clear or mostly clear sky later tonight into Sat morning, as weak sfc high pressure builds down over the region. Cold with lows ranging fm the upper 20s to mid 30s. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/... The center of strong high pressure will remain well north of the region near Hudson Bay during Sat. Meanwhile, low pressure will track acrs the MS Valley toward the TN Valley. Drier air associated with the weak sfc high will hold off pcpn fm moving into SW counties until mainly aftr 21Z. Will be going with a blend of the 12Z/23 GFS and 12Z/23 ECMWF models as far as timing of pcpn and placement of POPs for late Sat thru Sun morning. Model trends with this next low pressure area continue to be slgtly farther S, as low pressure tracks acrs the Carolinas and off the coast Sat night into Sun morning. Pcpn will start out as rain late Sat aftn into Sat evening, before mixing with or changing to snow during Sat evening into the overnight. Have adjusted POPs slgtly farther S during the event based on the latest guidance. With lesser QPF expected, a snow ratio of about 8 to 1, and mainly light snow only occurring for about 6-8 hrs, only expect .5 to possibly 1 inch of snow accumulation over Scntrl VA counties mostly. There could be a dusting to a few tenths of an inch over interior SE VA and interior NE NC fm Sat evening into Sun morning. Highs on Sat 45-50, but falling into the upper 30s to near 40 acrs the west once the pcpn arrives. Lows Sat night will range fm the upper 20s to mid 30s. Pcpn quickly ends acrs the SE Sun morning, as the low moves out to sea, and high pressure starts to build into the area fm the north. Sky will become partly to mostly sunny, but remaining chilly due to a brisk NE wind. Highs in the mid to upper 40s. Strong high pressure then builds down into and over the region Sun night and Mon. Clear or mostly clear and cold Sun night with lows ranging fm the mid to upper 20s NW, to the mid to upper 30s SE. Mostly sunny on Mon with highs ranging fm the mid 40s to lower 50s. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... The extended part of the forecast starts out cool then temperatures moderate mid-late next week. Ridge aloft and sfc hi pres will be aligned N-S invof E coast Mon night-Tue...then gradually weaken as deep layered SW flow develops from the Plains states to the mid-Atlantic region. Used blend of GFS/ECMWF/WPC through the period wrt timing return of cloudiness and increased PoPs. Dry wx hangs on through Tue night/early Wed...then PoPs expected to increase Wed afternoon-Fri along w/ VRB clouds/mostly cloudy conditions. Lows Mon night in the u20s W to the m-u30s at the coast. Highs Tue in the m-u40s at the coast (w/ still a bit of a ENE breeze). Lows Tue night from the m30s inland to around 40F at the immediate coast. Highs Wed 50-55F at the coast to the l60s inland. Lows Wed night ranging through the 40s. Highs Thu in the m-u50s at the coast to the m-u60s in central VA to interior NE NC. Highs Fri 55-60F at the coast to the l-m60s in central VA and the u60s across interior srn VA-NE NC. && .AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... VFR conditions will continue fm this aftn into Sat aftn, as high pressure builds into the area, before low pressure and a warm front affects the region later Sat into Sun morning. Expect SCT-BKN SC and AC thru early tonight, due to a weak trough dropping SE acrs the region. Outlook: Low pressure approaches from the west during Sat, and tracks acrs the Carolinas and off the coast Sat night into Sun morning. This could produce flight restrictions with a mix of rain and snow at PHF/ORF/ECG and possibly very light snow at RIC. High pressure becomes anchored over New England, with VFR conditions expected from Mon through the middle of next week. && .MARINE... NW winds below SCA over the local waters attm...expected to continue into this eve. Another surge of low level CAA and increased speeds expected by mid-late eve into the overnight hours. Boosted speeds to lo end SCA over the Ches Bay mainly after 02Z/24 and continued through 09-11Z/24...while elsewhere speeds expected to remain (just) below SCA criteria (based on hi res guidance). Lo pres passes S of the waters late Sat into Sun morning...but poor mixing will keep any SCA potential limited. NNE Winds and seas/waves increase (to at least mid range SCA) beginning midday/afternoon Sun as lo pres deepens offshore. These elevated conditions expected to remain over the local waters into Tue as lo pres is slow to move farther out to sea. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630>632-634. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TMG NEAR TERM...TMG SHORT TERM...MPR/TMG LONG TERM...ALB AVIATION...TMG MARINE...ALB is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.