-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
263
FXUS61 KAKQ 120607
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
207 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern is expected to persist through
the weekend, with isolated to scattered thunderstorms each day.
The potential for afternoon thunderstorms will continue early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 950 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Lows in the 70s tonight with locally dense fog in spots.

Bermuda high pressure remains well offshore this evening. A
stationary and cold front are located well to our N and NW,
producing widespread tstms near the Great Lakes region. A weak
ridge has set up over the eastern CONUS aloft. Evening radar
shows most of the isolated showers/storm activity has diminished
with the loss of heating.

Expecting a dry night under a mostly clear sky. However, areas
of fog or stratus are likely to develop offshore and move
gradually inland onto the Eastern Shore later tonight. Some of
the guidance shows dense fog, but confidence in this is rather
low. Elsewhere, patchy fog could develop given the weak flow and
moist low levels. Will monitor through the night. Overnight
lows in the lower 70s inland and mid 70s at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

The typical summer pattern of diurnal afternoon/evening showers and
storms will continue this weekend as upper height rises continue
over the area. A weak backdoor front will attempt to make its way
south towards the MD Eastern Shore, but will likely lose its forcing
before making it to the area. Temperatures are still expected to be a
few degrees cooler, regardless. As for the rest of the area,
Saturday will be slightly warmer with less cloud coverage than
Sunday and Monday. Heat indices on Saturday will reach 100-104F in
some places, but heat headlines are not expected at this time.
Isolated to scattered showers and storms remain possible each
afternoon/evening (further inland and west of the backdoor front on
Saturday and Sunday. A weak cold front approaches the region
Sunday/Monday, which increases PoPs for Monday afternoon/evening.
Localized flooding cannot be ruled out any day as the atmosphere
remains moist and localized rainfall totals of 1-3" is possible each
day. With a little bit better lifting mechanism on Sunday, isolated
damaging winds are also a low-end threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 300 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Staying seasonably warm and humid for much of next week with
  mainly afternoon/evening storm chances persisting.

A more seasonable weather pattern is expected to continue from the
early to middle part of the week. Behind the weak cold front, upper
ridging will build back into the area from Tue-Thu, although
isolated to scattered aftn/evening tstms are possible each day.
Highs next week will be around seasonal averages for this time of
year (upper 80s/around 90F).

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 200 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions prevail early this morning at the main terminals,
with some MVFR/IFR noted across SW. Guidance has been quite
variable with respect to IFR potential toward sunrise. Recent
satellite imagery and hi-res guidance lean toward MVFR
conditions at SBY, RIC, PHF, and ORF between 9-12z this morning.
Confidence is highest at SBY and PHF so have prevailing MVFR
during this period with TEMPO groups at ORF and RIC. ECG may see
a brief dip into MVFR just after sunrise but confidence in
sustained MVFR is low. Light and variable winds this morning
become SE 5-10 kt this afternoon. Some CU expected after mid
morning with bases around 4000 ft. Some showers and isolated
storms are possible for inland terminals during the afternoon
and evening but very low confidence in coverage and timing
preclude a specific mention in the forecast.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered afternoon-late evening tstms are
expected through the weekend and into early next week, along
with the potential for early morning fog/stratus.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 230 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue outside of local influences from
afternoon and evening storms.

Sub-SCA conditions are forecast to persist tonight through this
weekend, and likely into next week as well. High pressure remains
situated well offshore and a weak trough is located along/just east
of the Blue Ridge. Winds are generally light and variable over the
waters this afternoon. The surface trough translates offshore this
weekend with flow becoming ENE or E Saturday and Sunday. Southerly
flow returns next week. Waves in the Ches Bay will average 1-2 ft
through the period with seas mainly 1-3 ft. Coverage of afternoon
and evening showers and storms will be more isolated this evening
into the weekend as the upper trough axis moves into the western
Atlantic. However, any storms that do manage to form will continue
to pose localized threats of gusty winds and frequent lightning.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
-- Changed Discussion --
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ERI
NEAR TERM...KMC/SW
SHORT TERM...ERI/KMC
LONG TERM...ERI/KMC
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...AJB/RHR