-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
944
FXUS61 KAKQ 301901
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
301 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and
out to sea this evening, as a weak cold front approaches from
the northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight
through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible
Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected
Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend,
as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 1010 AM EDT Tuesday...

Late this morning, a strong upper level ridge was centered just
offshore, while sfc high pressure was centered off the SE coast.
The sky was partly to mostly sunny across the region with temps
in the lower to mid 70s.

High pressure that is centered off the SE coast will shift farther
out to sea this aftn, as a cold front begins to approach from
the NW. Very warm again this aftn, under a partly to mostly
sunny sky. Highs will be mainly in the mid 80s, just a degree
or two cooler than yesterday`s highs. Dry weather is expected
through the daylight hours. Overnight, there is a low chance
(~20% or less) for an isolated shower or storm, with the best
chances across WNW portions of the area (closer to the boundary).
Partly to mostly cloudy and mild tonight with lows in the lower
to mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

The cold front will be fairly weak/decaying by the time it moves
through the local area during the day on Wednesday. Latest CAMs
focus the majority of the shower/thunderstorm chances across
southeastern portions of the forecast area Wednesday afternoon, with
the forecast trending drier for locations further northwest. Total
QPF will generally be ~0.25" across southeastern portions of the
area (locally higher in thunderstorms). Inland, temperatures will be
slightly cooler compared to the past couple of days with highs
generally forecast in the lower 80s. Closer to the coast and along
the MD/VA Eastern Shore, an onshore breeze develops Wednesday
afternoon leading to highs in the 70s and possibly upper 60s across
the far NE (Ocean City MD). Any shower/storm activity comes to an
end shortly after sunset Wednesday evening, with dry conditions
returning for Wednesday night. Low temperatures will generally be in
the 50s. Will have to watch for the potential for some patchy fog
formation late Wednesday night/Thursday morning, with the NAM being
the most aggressive.

Dry and warmer on Thursday as the upper ridge builds back over the
Eastern US and high pressure builds at the surface. Highs will range
from the mid 80s inland to the 70s to lower 80s closer to the coast
(due to an onshore wind). Low temperatures will generally be in the
upper 50s (mid 50s Eastern Shore).

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather through Friday.
At the surface, high pressure will be centered over New England or
just offshore, resulting in continued onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland. Highs
on Friday in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the lower
70s to upper 60s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlantic
beaches of the Eastern Shore).

A cold front will gradually approach from the NW Saturday, gradually
crossing/decaying across the area Sunday into Monday. Rain chances
increase during the day Saturday, with the highest chances likely
Saturday evening into Saturday night. Clouds, rain, and an onshore
wind will keep temperatures cooler on Saturday with highs in the 60s
across the northern and northeastern portions of the area to to the
mid to upper 70s across the south. Unsettled conditions will
continue Sunday into Monday as the front slowly decays across the
local area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 220 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites from this aftn into
Wed aftn. SW winds will be 12-17 kt with gusts to 20-26 kt this
aftn into early this evening, then SSW 5-10 kt from this evening
into Wed morning. Expect increasing clouds (mainly CI and AC)
from later this aftn into early Wed morning. Isolated to sctd
showers or tstms will be possible tonight Wed evening, with the
best chances at the ORF/ECG Wed aftn into Wed evening.

Outlook: Dry/VFR conditions are expected for Thu and Fri. There
is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR
conditions from late Fri night through Sun with the next front.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 300 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Sub-SCA conditions expected through the end of the week and into
the weekend.

A cold front continues to approach from the NW this afternoon with
sfc high pressure anchored off the SE CONUS coast. It is a bit
breezy with SW winds of 10-15 kt with gusts to 20 kt (a few higher
gusts have been observed right at the land/water interface with peak
daytime mixing over land). Seas are generally 3-4.5 ft. The front is
expected to cross the local waters tonight-Wed. Breezy conditions
continue through the evening with S-SW winds of 10-15 kt. Winds
diminish to 5-10 kt and turn to the W then NE through the day Wed as
the front crosses the waters. Winds turn back to the south on Thu
(and remain 5-10 kt) before becoming E-NE at 10-15 kt Fri-Sat AM as
another weak front crosses the waters.

Seas remain 3-4 ft through tonight, with a few 5 ft seas possible
out near 20nm off the eastern shore, but will not issue SCAs. Seas
drop back to 2-3ft by Wed evening and may build back to 3-4 ft by
Fri night. Waves stay at 1-2 ft through most of the week.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 315 AM EDT Tuesday...

No record highs were set yesterday, 4/29. SBY has a chance today,
while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974
* ORF: 93/1988
* SBY: 86/2017
* ECG: 90/1974

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...AJB/TMG
SHORT TERM...AJB
LONG TERM...AJB
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...AM/ERI
CLIMATE...