-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KAKQ 170730
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
330 AM EDT Wed Apr 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the area today. Another front
crosses the area Thursday with a stronger cold front then
expected by early this weekend. High pressure slowly builds into
the area late this weekend through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Early morning wx analysis indicates a closed upper low spinning
across Minnesota, with a high amplitude upper ridge from the srn
Appalachians all the way north to Hudson Bay. Sfc high pressure is
now offshore of the area, with strong sfc low pressure near the
IA/MN border. A warm front extends SE of the low into NC. SCT high
clouds have begun to move into the area from the W in advance of the
approaching warm front.

The warm front will steadily move north today as an upper shortwave
approaches from the W. There is high confidence that the front moves
north of all the CWA by late aftn aside from the MD Eastern Shore.
Clouds gradually thicken and lower today with a few showers arriving
from the west by this aftn. Despite the mid to high level clouds,
temperatures will warm into the upper 70s-lower 80s in most areas,
with upper 60s-lower 70s on the eastern shore. As the shortwave
crosses the area this evening, showers will become more numerous,
and a few tstms are also possible (especially near the front where
there may be a bit of moisture pooling). No severe wx is expected
given the limited amount of instability, but gusts to 45 mph can`t
be ruled out in the stronger storms. The precipitation should move
offshore by 2-3 AM with lows only falling into the upper 50s-lower
60s in most areas. QPF amounts are less than 0.25" given spotty
coverage of precip, with the highest PoPs/QPFs on the eastern shore.
Most areas across srn VA/NE NC will see less than 0.10" of
precipitation.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

Warm temperatures return for Thursday with a very weak cold front
moving through in the afternoon. Expect a dry day with partly to
mostly sunny skies. Temps range from the mid 80s in most areas west
of the bay to mid-upper 70s for the immediate coast and Eastern
Shore. A backdoor cold front crosses at least part of the region
Thursday night before retreating to the NE on Friday as a stronger
front approaches from the NW. Dry with lows mostly in the 50s Thu
night with a few upper 40s possible on the MD Eastern Shore. That
stronger front will be just to our NW by Fri evening with scattered
showers/isolated tstms developing to our west during the aftn.
Precip chances increase across western portions of the area by
evening and overspread the remainder of the area during the first
part of Fri night. With the retreating backdoor front, will confine
thunder chances to the SW half of the FA where temps/dew points will
be highest. This does not look like a widespread event, and in fact,
many areas will see little to no precip Fri-Fri night. High temps
will again be warmest across the SW counties and coolest NE, ranging
from ~80F to the low 60s. Precip chances end by late Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 250 AM EDT Wednesday...

There is increasing confidence that Saturday will be mostly dry with
the front south of the area. Forecast highs are in the upper 60s to
mid 70s. A stronger shot of CAA arrives Sat night-Sun AM, and as a
result, it will be much cooler on Sunday and Monday. There is still
some disagreement with respect to the the evolution of a southern
stream low pressure system late this weekend-early next week. This
system may bring additional rain to the region during this time
(highest PoPs are in SE VA/NE NC). Also, if it does rain during the
majority of the day, temps will struggle to get out of the 50s
(which is not reflected in the forecast given the uncertainty). For
now, have slight chance-chance PoPs (highest SE). Otherwise, high
pressure slowly builds in from the NW into early next week. A
warming trend likely begins on Tuesday with highs back into the 70s
almost everywhere by Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 AM EDT Wednesday...

Prevailing VFR conditions will continue for the majority of the
06z/17 TAF period...but cloud bases gradually lower this
morning as the warm front slowly works its way back toward the
area. Could see some MVFR CIGs across SE VA/NE NC terminals
around sunrise, but confidence in this is not that high.
Elsewhere, VFR today with CIGs aoa 10000ft. Winds will mostly be
from the SE to SSW at ~10kt. Shower chances increase later this
aftn and especially this evening (highest PoPs are across
northern portions of the area INVOF SBY). It will mostly be VFR
except on the eastern shore where MVFR CIGs are possible this
evening-tonight. Shower chances continue through 06z before the
precipitation moves offshore. Cannot rule out a rumble of
thunder or two between 00-06z (mainly at SBY).

Outlook: Mainly VFR early Thu except for lingering flight
restrictions at SBY. Drier conditions move in for most of
Thursday through Friday morning. Low pressure and a cold front
will bring another chance for showers and flight restrictions
later Friday into Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 AM EDT Wednesday...

Early this morning, weak high pressure was centered off the Mid
Atlc coast. Winds were E-S 5-10 kt across the waters. Waves were
1-2 ft and seas were 2-3 ft. Winds will be mainly SE or S 5-10
kt today, then turn SSW at 10-15 kt this evening/tonight, as a
warm front lifts back north through the area. Weak low pressure
moves across the nrn waters during Thu allowing winds to turn
N then NE. This low is forecast to deepen slightly offshore of
the Delmarva late Thu into Thu night, which will result in NE
winds to increase to 10-20 kt across the waters. Will keep
conditions below SCA criteria for now, as the low is expected
to stay far enough offshore to limit SCA conditions. NE winds
10-15 kt Fri morning, will become E then SE 5-10 kt Fri aftn.
A frontal boundary will push through the region by early Sat
morning, with winds becoming northerly.

Waves generally 2 ft or less in the bay through the week (except
building to up to 3 ft at the entrance of the bay by Fri morning).
Seas 2 to 3 feet building to 3 to 4 ft by Fri.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RHR
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/RHR
LONG TERM...ERI/RHR
AVIATION...ERI/LKB
MARINE...TMG/MRD