Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 280837 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 437 AM EDT Tue Jun 28 2022 .SYNOPSIS...
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It will be a mostly to partly sunny day as a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere passes over the region with high pressure building in at the surface. Another disturbance will approach and pass over the region Wednesday resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon into the evening. Fair and dry for Thursday. Today will be a bit cool for summer but temperatures will warm some each day as the week progresses.
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&& .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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Cooler and drier air mass was ushered into the region yesterday. Temperature today will run around 5 degrees below normal but should be pleasant for many with northwesterly winds of 10 mph or less along mostly to partly sunny skies. Highs will be in the 70s below 1500 feet and in the 60s above that. A short wave trough will continue moving across the region this morning. It`s resulting in isolated light rain showers across portions of the southern Adirondacks. Any lingering showers will dissipate as the trough axis begins to move off to our east later this morning. Weak ridging aloft will build in this afternoon. In the meantime, higher pressure will build into the region from the west.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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It will be cool night tonight with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees below normal with lows dropping down in the lower to mid 50s mainly below 1000 feet and into northwest Connecticut with 40s above 1000 feet. With mainly clear skies and very light winds some patchy fog is expected to develop in some valley locations overnight. Another short wave trough will be in the approach Wednesday along with a weak surface boundary. A southwesterly flow will develop and temperatures will be warm to seasonable levels with lower 80s up the Hudson River Valley and into portion of northwest Connecticut with 70s elsewhere with 60s limited to above 2000 feet. The timing of the short wave trough will tap into daytime heating, however moisture will be limited so only expected isolated showers and thunderstorms are expected during the afternoon into the evening. Heights will rise in the trough`s wake with ridging building in for Thursday with high pressure remaining across the region at the surface. Milder Wednesday night with seasonable lows in the 50s. Thursday will also be warmer with 70s and 80s across the area with abundant sunshine. Even milder and becoming muggy Thursday night with the surface high shifting off the coast. Lows will ranges from the mid 50s to lower 60s.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The extended forecast begins with mid and upper level ridging along the East Coast to close the week with above normal temps and a hot day for the region. The mid and upper level flow flattens heading into the holiday weekend with a cold front sliding southward with showers and some thunderstorms Friday night through Saturday. The placement of the boundary will determine how dry conditions remain Sunday, but latest medium range model guidance indications are for fairer and drier weather Sunday into Independence Day. Fri-Fri Night...A closed H500 anticyclone /593 decameters/ is situated near the mid Atlantic Coast. A strong H500 closed low will be near Hudson Bay and begin to dig southward heading into the weekend. Sfc high pressure will move into the western Atlantic. A west to southwest 850 hPa low-level jet will allow temps to surge +1 to +2 STDEVs above normal at that level. The latest 00Z GFS/ECMWF have H850 temps rise to +16C to +20C. Max temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s will be common in the valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the higher terrain. Sfc dewpts will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s and apparent temps or Heat Indices fall short of advisory criteria at this time (mainly in the upper 80s to lower 90s). A prefrontal trough may bring a few showers/thunderstorms to the Adirondacks in the afternoon. The prefrontal trough will continue the threat for showers and isolated thunderstorms Friday night with the greatest chances from the Capital Region north and west. Lows will be mainly in the 60s with some upper 50s over the southern Adirondacks. Sat-Sat Night...Placement of the cold front and the degree of heating will help determine if any strong thunderstorms materialize. Low-level moisture increases with the latest NAEFS having PWATs a couple standard deviations above normal. The actual values will be in the 1.5-2.0" range based on the GFS. The better chance this far out for stronger storms could be south and east of the Capital Region where moderate amounts of instability maybe realized. The low-level convergence associated with the front coupled with height falls should allow for bands or periods of showers. Some of the rainfall could be moderate to locally heavy with warm cloud efficient rainfall processes. Overall, a soaking rainfall for some locations will be very beneficial due to constant and persistent dry antecedent conditions. The front may take its time drifting southward due to parallel flow aloft. The latest ECMWF/GFS are close with the timing of the front, whereas the CMC is faster. Have kept PoPs in the high chance and likely range on Saturday based on the NBM. Max temps generally in the 70s to lower 80s with some upper 60s to lower 70s over the mtns. The front continues to push southward with the strong mid and upper level trough digging southward from Hudson Bay. The showers will diminish south and east of the I-90 corridor overnight. Lows will fall back into the 50s to lower 60s with upper 40s over the Adirondack Park Sunday through Independence Day...A few isolated showers may pop up south of the Capital Region on Sunday if the the front stalls closer to Long Island, southern New England and north-central NJ. The mid and upper level flow will be near zonal and cooler and drier air should be filtering in. Max temps will be seasonable on Sunday with upper 70s to lower 80s in the lower elevations, and upper 60s to mid 70s over the hills/mtns. High pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes Region over NY and New England for Independence Day with comfortable humidity levels with lows in the 50s with some upper 40s over the higher terrain and highs in the 70s and 80s.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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An upper level disturbance will move across the region this morning with some clouds. High pressure will ridge from the lower Great Lakes Region over NY and New England late this afternoon into tonight. VFR conditions are expected the next 24 hours ending 06Z/WED for KGFL/KALB/KPOU/KPSF. Some sct-bkn mid level clouds in the 7-8 kft AGL range will move into KGFL/KALB this morning, and mid level clouds will thin near KPOU. Sct-bkn stratocumulus will form in the 4-6 kft AGL range for the TAF sites between 12Z-16Z/TUE with the passage of the upper trough. The clouds will diminish in the late afternoon, as the skies will clear with the sfc anticyclone building in. The winds will be west to northwest at less than 10 kts this morning into the afternoon. They will become light and variable at 3 kts or less shortly before or just after 00Z/WED. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Sunday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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It will be a mostly to partly sunny day as a disturbance in the upper levels of the atmosphere passes over the region with high pressure building in at the surface. Another disturbance will approach and pass over the region Wednesday resulting in isolated showers and thunderstorms. Minimum relative humidity values will be in the upper 30s to mid 50s this afternoon. A recovery to 90 to 100 percent is expected tonight. Minimums Wednesday afternoon will be lower in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Winds will be 10 mph or less through Wednesday.
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&& .HYDROLOGY...
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Hydrological issues are not expected the rest of the week. Looking at mainly dry weather through Friday, however as we head into the weekend widespread showers along with thunderstorms are expected Friday night through Saturday with lingering chances into Sunday as a cold front approaches and moves across the region. A soaking rainfall is expected with some moderate to locally heavy possible. The rainfall will be beneficial to most due to dry antecedent conditions. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...IAA SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Wasula AVIATION...Wasula FIRE WEATHER...IAA HYDROLOGY...IAA

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