Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231740 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 140 PM EDT Sun Sep 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will ridge into the area from Eastern Canada and northern New England bringing fair weather and seasonably cool temperatures today and Monday. A warm front will bring periods of rain on Tuesday, while a cold front will bring rain showers and a few thunderstorms on Wednesday. A return to cool and dry weather is forecast for Thursday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 1215 PM EDT, northern part of forecast area is mainly clear while high clouds continue to stream across southern part of area. Visible satellite loop shows that clouds across the south should gradually thin this afternoon, while clouds will increase later across the far north as a secondary cold front sags southward towards the area. No precipitation is expected across the area for the remainder if the day. Winds are light and variable and are forecast to remain that way into the evening. Current temperatures are in the mid 50s to low 60s and should rise another 5 degrees this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Dry weather is expected to continue through Monday with rain arriving during the second half of Monday night. High pressure will be anchored across the region through Monday before sliding east off the New England coast Monday night. A warm front will be moving into western New York late Monday night bringing some rainfall to the region which should hold off until after midnight Monday night. A cold front will be moving into the eastern Great Lakes late Tuesday night with rainfall continuing through the period. PWATs rise o above 1.5 inches late Tuesday and rise above 1.75 inches in some areas Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts from late Monday night through Tuesday night should generally range from an inch to an inch and a half. Highs on Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Lows Sunday night will be in the upper 30s to mid 40s with lows on Monday night in the mid 40s to mid 50s, and lows on Tuesday night in the mid 50s to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The long term portion of the forecast looks changeable, with multiple opportunities for showers. A cold front will approach from the west on Wednesday. Surface-based instability looks meager at this time, with just some weak elevated instability. Ample moisture will be in place, with PWAT`s of 1.5-1.8 inches. So, locally heavy rain will be possible, especially where any showers tend to train, given a fairly deep layer of low/mid level winds parallel to the incoming front. Will include just slight chances for thunder. Wednesday should exhibit the warmest temperatures of the week, as we will be in the warm sector with southwest flow ahead of the approaching low. Highs will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s. It will rather humid, with dewpoints ranging from the mid 60s to around 70. Showers and isolated thunderstorms may linger into Wednesday evening as the front slowly moves east across the region, with best chances mainly east of the Hudson River. Brief ridging and high pressure will then move into the region on Thursday keeping conditions generally dry. Guidance is suggesting coastal development of a weak wave Thursday night into Friday, while a cold front associated with a clipper-like system will approach from the northwest during Friday. Therefore chances for showers will be kept for Friday-Friday evening, and reduced for Saturday as high pressure potentially builds into the region from the Great Lakes. Highs Thursday through Saturday will generally be in the 60s with lows in the mid 40s to lower/mid 50s. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR conditions to prevail for most of forecast period. VFR conditions at all terminals now. Some dense cirrus noted across KPOU and KPSF, although this has no impact on flight categories. For tonight, a weak cold front will settle southward, increasing the winds from the north to northeast. This should preclude the development of much in the way of BR. Have just offered a few hours of MVFR BR at KGFL and KPSF toward sunrise Monday. Outlook... Monday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA. Tuesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA. Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Definite SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will move from the Great Lakes to New England this weekend bringing fair weather and seasonably cool temperatures. A storm system moving from the western Great Lakes through eastern Canada will bring a chance of rain from late Monday night through Wednesday. Relative humidity values will drop to 35 to 60 percent this afternoon, recover to 80 to 100 percent tonight, and drop to 50 to 65 percent on Monday. Winds will generally be light and variable at less than 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... Fair and seasonably cool weather is expected for the weekend into early next week. The next chance of rain will be from late Monday night into Wednesday night. There is the potential for 1 to 3 inches of rain during that period. WPC has placed much of eastern New York and western New England in a marginal to slight risk of excessive rainfall Tuesday through Tuesday night. The amount of rainfall expected may be enough to produce some urban and poor drainage flooding as well as perhaps some small stream flooding. At this time, extended river forecast models show no flooding is forecast on the main stem rivers, but some half to three quarter bank full rises are possible. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND/11 SHORT TERM...11 LONG TERM...Cebulko/KL AVIATION...KL/OKeefe FIRE WEATHER...SND/11 HYDROLOGY...SND/11

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