Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 222106 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 506 PM EDT Tue May 22 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system and cold front will move across the region tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest tomorrow with fair and dry weather. High pressure will dominate until Friday with temperatures running above normal entering the long holiday weekend. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... As of 429 PM EDT...A low pressure system continues to move east to northeast of Lake Ontario across upstate NY, as a warm front will lift north of central and eastern NY. The area of stratiform rain will continue to taper to scattered showers. The cold front to system is pushing eastward across the Ohio Valley, western PA and and western NY in the mid afternoon. There is limited surface based instability across the forecast area, but there remains some elevated instability with Showalter Indices of 0C to -2C west of the region, and the guidance has these stability indices over the forecast area mainly prior to midnight. We tapered showers off from northwest to southeast prior to midnight to low/slight chance after midnight south and east. The latest 3-km HRRR has the showers lingering the longest across Ulster/Dutchess/Litchfield Counties. Some low-level cold advection will occur in the wake of the front. The clearing skies north of the region coupled with a moist boundary layer will allow for some patchy fog to form especially in the valley areas. Low temps will not fall off too much with upper 40s to mid 50s across much of region with a few upper 50s over the mid Hudson Valley/Capital District/NW CT. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/... Tomorrow...The H500 upper trough axis swings across New England with a secondary cold front with little to no low-level moisture moving across the region in the late morning into the early afternoon. A few isolated showers were kept in over the southern Greens, otherwise the low-level cold advection strengthens with deeper mixing. Sfc dewpoints will lower into the 40s to lower 50s by the late afternoon.The W/NW winds will increase to 10 to 20 mph with some gusts around 25-30 mph. Downsloping off the Adirondacks, Catskills, and southern Green Mtns will allow for compressional warming in the Hudson and CT River Valleys with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Expect upper 60s to mid 70s over the Mtns. The subsidence in the wake of the secondary cold front with the sfc high building in, will allow for mostly sunny conditions. Wed night...A cool air mass will be over the region with the sfc winds becoming light to calm. Ideal radiational cooling environment is likely with clear/mostly clear skies, as the sfc anticyclone builds in from the Midwest over upstate NY. We went with min temps closer to the EC MOS with lows mainly in the mid 40s to lower 50s with a few upper 30s to lower 40s over the Adirondack Park and southern Greens. Thursday into Friday...The fair and dry weather will continue with the sfc high over the forecast area on THU with limited mixing and temps running about 5 degrees above normal with mid and upper 70s in the lower elevations and mid 60s to lower 70s over the higher terrain. The sfc high shifts offshore THU night with a return flow of milder air. Mins will not be as cool as Wed night with lows mainly in the upper 40s to lower/mid 50s. The winds will be southwest to west in the boundary layer with high pressure ridging in from the south and west. Humidity levels will start to creep up and H850 temps will be 1 to 2 standard deviations above normal based on the latest 12Z GEFS/NAEFS. Highs will be summer like with lower to mid 80s in the valley areas, and 70s to lower 80s over the hills/mtns. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... There is much uncertainty regarding the details of the holiday weekend forecast however what is certain is overall it will be unsettled. A cold front is expected to settle southward across the region Saturday with a low pressure system on the approach from the west. The cold front is expected to stall over the region by Sunday morning however there is not good agreement to exactly where this should happen which impacts the forecast: temperatures and chances for storms. The low pressure system is expected to move eastward passing just to west and south of the local area at this time. All this results in chances for showers over the weekend with the possibility of thunderstorms. Saturday should be the warmest day ahead of the approaching cold front with highs from the mid 70s to upper 80s with Monday the coolest with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s. && .AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... A warm front will approach from the southwest through tonight, as a weak low pressure system tracks east from the Great Lakes. A cold front associated with this low will track southeast across the TAF sites toward daybreak Wednesday. Light to moderate rain will persist across the TAF sites through mid to late afternoon, with areas of MVFR developing, esp for Cigs. Isolated IFR Cigs will be possible, esp at KPSF. The areal coverage of rain will decrease as precipitation becomes more showery tonight. Cigs will vary between MVFR and IFR, with the best chance of sustained IFR conditions at KPSF and KGFL. As the cold front moves across toward daybreak, conditions should improve to VFR at all TAF sites between 12Z-15Z/Wed. Winds will be from the south at 5-10 KT at KALB this afternoon and tonight, while remaining light/variable at other TAF sites. Winds will shift into the west/northwest at 5-10 KT from mid morning Wednesday into the afternoon hours, with some gusts of 15-20 KT possible toward 18Z/Wed at KALB and KPSF. Low level wind shear has been included at KGFL through this afternoon, as surface winds remain light from the south at less than 8 KT, while winds around 2000 FT AGL increase from the south to southwest at 30-35 KT. Outlook... Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... A low pressure system and cold front will move across the region tonight with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. High pressure ridges in from the Great Lakes Region and Midwest tomorrow with fair and dry weather. High pressure will dominate until Friday with temperatures running above normal. Unsettled weather returns for the holiday weekend. RH values will be near 100 percent tonight in the showers and patchy mist, but will lower to 35 to 50 percent tomorrow afternoon. The max RH values will be in the 70 to 95 percent range by Thursday morning. The winds will shift to west to northwest at 5 to 10 mph tonight, and increase to 10 to 20 mph Wednesday afternoon with some gusts to around 30 mph in some locations. The winds will become light to calm Thursday morning. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated this week. The current storm system will bring one tenth to a half inch of rainfall to the hydro service area by Wednesday morning. This rainfall will have little impact on area rivers, streams, creeks and brooks with flows mainly holding steady over the next few days. Dry weather is expected to return for tomorrow afternoon through Friday, as high pressure builds in. Our next chance for showers and possible thunderstorms will be over the holiday weekend. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...KL FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...Frugis/Wasula

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