Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 240239 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 939 PM EST Fri Feb 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Wet and dreary weather will continue into tonight. It will be milder and mainly dry on Saturday, however another round of mixed precipitation and rain is expected Saturday night into Sunday. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
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As of 939 PM EST...Our region remains just downstream of an approaching occluded frontal boundary over the eastern Great lakes. Steady precipitation has ended across the region as the best forcing has shifted northeast of the region. With precip being done, the winter weather advisory has been canceled early, as the threat for freezing rain has ended. The 00z KALY sounding shows plenty of low-level moisture trapped beneath a very strong inversion, so clouds look to hold in place into the overnight hours. Overnight, cold and dry advection will be delayed with the upstream surface high still well off to the west over the central Plains. So while more robust forcing for ascent wanes, we could still be looking at continued areas of low clouds and perhaps some light showers or drizzle (mainly for western areas). Temperatures should remain steady or may actually come up a couple of degrees as the gradual shift of the low level winds to westerly will scour out some of the lingering colder near- surface air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Mainly dry weather is expected Saturday as higher pressure builds in along with above normal temperatures, nothing like earlier in the week, with highs in the upper 30s to around 50 degrees. Another round precipitation expected Saturday night and Sunday as a low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. Overrunning precipitation is expected to overspread the area Saturday night mainly after midnight as the system`s warm front approaches. Temperatures are forecast to drop into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday evening setting the stage for mixed precipitation. A wintry mix is expected mainly across the higher terrain, generally above 1000 feet, eventually transitioning to plain rain Sunday morning. Before this occur a light accumulation of snow and/or sleet is expected generally north of I-90. A period of freezing rain is expected Sunday morning across the higher terrain with a light ice accretion. A winter weather advisory will likely be needed. A changeover to plain rain is expected Sunday morning with rain continue well into the afternoon as the system occludes as it moves across the area. Runoff would result in some river rises and could cause movement of ice jams. If confidence for flooding increases then a flood watch and/or hydrologic advisory will need to be issued. East to southeast flow ahead of the approaching system will increase and become gusty late Saturday night into Sunday across southern Vermont, the Berkshires, the Taconics, western Adirondacks, western Mohawk Valley and the Schoharie Valley. Higher pressure will build in at the surface behind the system with the flow aloft flattening resulting in continued above normal temperatures. With the help of sunshine on Monday expecting highs mainly 40s across the area with lower 50s in the mid Hudson Valley. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High pressure will be in control at the start of the extended period, but will be departing off the coast of the mid-Atlantic States during the midweek period. Although there continues to be some timing differences within the model and ensemble guidance, dry and quiet weather is expected for at least Tuesday into Tuesday night (and probably through Wednesday as well). With a southerly flow in place, above normal temperatures are expected, with highs on Tuesday mainly in the 40s and lows on Tuesday night in the mid 20s to mid 30s. Highs on Wednesday should reach the mid 40s to mid 50s, with increasing clouds. The next system will be approaching from the southwest, although its still difficult to say how quickly it moves in and just how much precip is expected. The track and evolution of this storm is still unknown, as its possible that the initial storm system cuts off over the Great Lakes and a new storm forms along the mid-Atlantic coastline. Based on the model guidance, our area could be seeing some light precipitation as early as Wednesday night if the GFS is correct or perhaps as late as Thursday or Thursday night (based on some ensemble solutions and the 12z GGEM). The 12z ECMWF even suggests that the storm never makes it this far north, as the majority of the moisture gets shunted to the south of the region as well as the reformed storm system slides eastward offshore. If the GFS is correct, p-type would primarily be light rain, although some light snow or mixed precip is possible for both the onset and ending of the storm, mainly for the high terrain and northern areas. The other models and some ensemble solutions would suggest the possibility of some snow across the area, so it will ultimately depend on storm track. For now, have kept temps closer to the model blend guidance, which suggest highs on Thurs/Fri in the 30s and 40s and lows in the 20s and 30s, although these could be lower depending on the exact storm track and evolution. && .AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... IFR conditions look to continue for much of the overnight hours for all sites. Although steady rainfall is winding down over the next few hours, lots of lingering low-level moisture will keep areas of mist along with low ceilings in place through the overnight hours, as there won`t be a strong push of drier air at low levels until late tonight. Towards Saturday morning, winds will switch to the west, which should allow for some improvement in ceilings back to MVFR and visibility back to above 6 miles. It may take until mid to late morning Saturday for ceilings to return to VFR levels, as winds switch to the W-NW and increase to around 10 kts (a few higher gusts possible at KALB/KPSF) and ceilings return to around 3500 ft. Outlook... Saturday Night: High Operational Impact. Definite RA...SN...SLEET. Sunday: High Operational Impact. Breezy Definite RA. Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Flood waters have receded and the flood warning and advisories were cancelled earlier today. Ice jams remain in place on multiple locations on the Mohawk River from about Lock 9 through the Twin Bridges and on the upper Hudson River in central Warren County. Precipitation will be light through this evening with mainly dry weather into Saturday evening. However, widespread precipitation will overspread the area Saturday night and continue most of Sunday as another low pressure system approaches and moves across the region. A wintry mix is expected mainly across the higher terrain, generally above 1000 feet, eventually transitioning to plain rain Sunday morning. At this time QPF amounts of about an inch are expected. Temperatures will be above normal Saturday but only expecting highs in the upper 30s to about 50 degrees with temperatures dropping back into the upper 20s to upper 30s Saturday night which will limit snowmelt. Runoff would result in some river rises and could cause movement of ice jams. If confidence for flooding increases then a flood watch and/or hydrologic advisory will need to be issued. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
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CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None.
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&& $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA NEAR TERM...Frugis/Thompson SHORT TERM...IAA LONG TERM...Frugis AVIATION...Frugis HYDROLOGY...IAA

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