Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 231100 AFDALY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albany NY 700 AM EDT Wed May 23 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Morning fog and low clouds will give way to a mostly sunny sky, along with a warm afternoon today. It will turn less humid and breezy by late in the day thanks to another passing cold front. High pressure will allow for sunny and pleasant weather tomorrow, with warmer temperatures returning for Friday into the holiday weekend. Some showers and thunderstorms are possible for the weekend as well. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 642 AM EDT...MRMS imagery shows that showers have ended over the region, as a weak storm system continues to depart. Despite this, weak winds have kept plenty of low level moisture in place, which is keeping low clouds and fog around. Although the day will start off with some clouds (especially for southern areas), drier air will start to work into the region, which should allow for skies to become mostly sunny during the morning hours. Dewpoints will continue to be in the 50s through most of the day. With an upper level trough digging across Quebec and into northern New England, a secondary surface cold front will be heading towards the area for the afternoon hours. However, moisture will be limited, so despite good forcing and instability in place, little precipitation is expected with this boundary. Based off the 3km NAM, cannot totally rule out a shower over southern Vermont, otherwise, it should be dry today with a mix of sun and clouds. Once the secondary boundary moves through, dewpoints should quickly fall off into the 40s by late today and northwest winds will start to become gusty. Highs today will be noticeably warmer than yesterday thanks to the return of sunshine. Most areas should reach well into the 70s, with some low 80s possible for the Hudson Valley. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Winds will die off with the loss of daytime mixing and good radiational cooling is expected tonight. Lows should be in the 40s to low 50s across the entire area. On Thursday, high pressure will allow for plenty of sunshine, with a pleasant afternoon and low humidity. Mixing will be limited due to the strong subsidence in place, so winds won`t be too strong. Highs should reach the mid 60s to mid 70s. As the high shifts offshore, a return flow will allow for a warmer southerly flow at low levels for Friday and temps aloft will start to warm as well. It still looks dry for most of the area, although there will be more clouds around as compared to Thursday. Highs will be in the low to mid 80s for valley areas, with 70s for the higher elevations. Warm and muggy conditions look to be in place for Friday night, with lows in the mid 50s to mid 60s. A surface boundary will be located just north of the area. While most of the region should be dry, cannot totally rule out a shower or two dropping across the Adirondacks. Otherwise, it will be partly cloudy and dry across the region. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Upper energy currently in the western U.S. expected to slowly drift northeast into southern central Canada then track near the U.S. Canadian border this weekend, and east through the beginning of next week. The slow movement will result in gradually increasing chances for showers and scattered thunderstorms Saturday and Sunday, with gradually decreasing coverage Monday. Thunderstorms should be timed mainly in the afternoon and evening hours. There are some initial hints for some decent instability Saturday afternoon and Sunday afternoon and will keep monitoring for strong thunderstorm potential. Indicating chances each day but some time windows during the weekend could have likely coverage but it is too early to specify those time windows and do not want to give the impression of a prolonged washout this far out. There could be a pre frontal trough Saturday, which would be the primary focus for any scattered shower/storm activity. Then a cold front is timed to track through our region Sunday and Monday. The timing of the pre frontal trough and cold front will need to be adjusted as we get closer to the weekend, so we can again, time the best chances for showers and thunderstorms. The front is expected to be far enough east of our region Tuesday for the potential for dry weather by then. Highs Saturday well into the 80s ahead of the prefrontal trough and some upper 70s higher terrain. Highs Sunday with a bit better coverage of clouds, showers and thunderstorms, in the upper 70s but lower to mid 70s higher terrain. Highs Monday as the last of the showers and thunderstorms exit, in the lower 70s but upper 60s to around 70 higher terrain. Highs Tuesday with some dry weather and sun possibly returning, in the mid to upper 70s but around 70 higher terrain. && .AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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The surface wind shift is in the process of tracking through our region and clouds are breaking up from north to south through the Hudson Valley from KGFL through KALB and KPOU. Low clouds are still anchored to the Berkshires and it should take at least until 14Z for KPSF to break out of the low clouds. A drying airmass aloft will allow for increasing sunshine through the morning and gusty winds will develop. Another reinforcing cold front is expected to track through late this afternoon and night but a lack of deep moisture will result in just an isolated shower or thunderstorm if any even develop. Ceilings and visibilities remain VFR through this afternoon and evening. South to southwest winds at less than 10 Kt at KALB, KGFL and KPSF will continue through daybreak but near calm at KPOU. A west to north flow will spread across the region this morning with the passage of the wind shift boundary, then increase through midday and become gusty by afternoon with gusts 15-25 Kt. Winds will diminish to less than 10 Kt this evening after the final reinforcing cold front tracks through. Outlook... Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy NO SIG WX. Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Memorial Day: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... Dry weather is expected over the next few days. RH values will fall to 35 to 45 percent by late today with northwest winds increasing to 10 to 20 mph by later this afternoon as well. After a recovery tonight, RH values will fall once again on Thursday, with values as low as 25 to 30 percent in the afternoon hours. Northwest winds will be 5 to 10 mph on Thursday. The next chance of rain will be over the holiday weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated over the next few days. Showers have ended as a storm system departs away from the region. A secondary cold front will move through today, but little to no showers are expected due to limited moisture in place. Dry weather is expected to continue for Thursday and Friday with high pressure in control. As a result, rivers, streams, lakes, ponds, reservoirs, brooks, creeks and kills will remain fairly steady over the next few days. Our next chance for scattered showers and possible thunderstorms will be over the holiday weekend. Rainfall amounts will be highly variable. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...NAS FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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