Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 190759 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 359 AM EDT Tue Mar 19 2024 .SYNOPSIS...
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Cool and brisk conditions will continue today, with lake effect snow showers in favored areas again. It will become cold and windy Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as a strong cold front moves across the region bringing additional accumulating snow mainly to higher terrain areas north and west of the Capital Region.
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&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
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Upslope snow showers oriented N-S along and just west of the spine of the southern Greens, Taconics, and Berkshires as the flow remains slightly blocked (Froude # < 1.0). The upslope snow east of the Hudson Valley should dissipate quickly after sunrise as the flow becomes unblocked (Froude # > 2.0). Also a broader area of upslope and lake effect snow showers should diminish early this morning across the W. Adirondacks and Mohawk Valley, as a small area of low level ridging develops. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions in place early this morning with just isolated to scattered light snow showers or flurries in the W-NW flow regime. Later this morning into the afternoon, some lake effect snow bands are expected to develop over the W. Adirondacks again as the flow backs to a more westerly trajectory ahead of the next disturbance approaching from the Great Lakes. The lake effect should be relatively weak within the low level ridging though. So any additional accumulations will be minor (Trace-1"). Outside of the lake effect it will be dry. Winds will remain breezy, shifting to a more westerly direction by this afternoon. Peak gusts will be around 20-30 mph. Highs look to be slightly below normal with upper 20s/lower 30s in the mountains and 40-45F in the valleys. Snow showers will increase in coverage this evening mainly for areas north/west of the Capital District as forcing increases with the short wave approaching. Scattered to numerous snow showers will then spread eastward across most of the the higher terrain areas through the rest of the night as the disturbance moves through. Westerly downslope flow will reduce snow showers in the Hudson Valley. Mainly light accumulations of 1-3" are expected in parts of the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens with Trace-1" elsewhere. Snow-liquid ratios are still expected to be above climo, around 13:1 to 16:1 so snow showers should be of dry consistency. Lows should be mainly in the 20s to lower 30s.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
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Snow showers should be ongoing across higher terrain areas north of Albany Wed into morning before decreasing in coverage by late morning. However, a potent upper level short wave and associated surface cold front approaching from the Great Lakes are expected to move across the region Wed afternoon and evening. With fairly strong forcing expected, will continue to mention likely PoPs west of the Hudson Valley and high chance east. Precip type should be mainly snow above 1500 ft, rain/snow mix 500-100 ft, and mainly rain with some graupel due to steep low level lapse rates. It will become windy with gusts of 30-45 mph possible by late Wed as mixing heights increase to ~650-600 mb. Highs should reach the well into the 40s across lower elevations with 30s in the mountains prior to the cold front passage Wed afternoon. Main complicating factor with regards to snowfall will be low confidence in the ability to accumulate during daylight hours with late March sun angle and marginal temperatures. Temperatures aloft will become quite cold Wed night, with 850 mb temperatures anomalies of -1 to -2 STDEV developing and 500 mb height anomalies of -1 to -3 STDEV. This colder air along with strengthening W-NW flow will result in reinvigorating lake effect and upslope snow showers. Additional light to moderate accumulations may occur in the W. Adirondacks and S. Greens. A Winter Weather Advisory may eventually be needed for these areas if confidence increases. It will continue to be windy as the pressure gradient strengthens through the night. Max wind gusts of 30-45 mph look to be common. Temperatures will steadily fall in the cold advection regime, with lows ranging from the mid 10s in the Adirondacks to upper 20s in the mid Hudson Valley by late Wed night. The main core of the upper level trough will shift east into northern New England Thu morning, so snow showers should diminish. It will be dry, cold and brisk on Thu, with highs around 10 degrees below normal. This will be the first day of significantly below normal temperatures the entire month of March. Highs only expected to be in the lower/mid 30s for most valley areas and 20s in the higher terrain. NW winds will continue to be quite gusty, with 30-45 mph gusts through the day. Thu night will start out breezy, with wind speeds gradually decreasing through the night as high pressure builds east across NY state. It will remain dry and cold, with lows expected to range from the single digits in the W. Adirondacks to around 20F in the mid Hudson Valley.
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&& .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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The long term period opens with brief shortwave upper ridging overhead, with cold high pressure centered to the north and northwesterly flow through much of the column allowing for continued below normal temperatures. Highs Friday afternoon look to only reach the mid 20s to low 30s in high terrain and mid 30s to mid 40s at lower elevations beneath increasingly cloudy skies thanks to the cold advective pattern. The forecast rapidly becomes a low confidence affair for Friday night and beyond. Numerical guidance remains in good agreement about the large-scale features which will determine the weather through the weekend, however there remains much disagreement in the details of how the flow evolves over the Northeast. An upper trough, reinforced by a relatively vigorous northern stream shortwave, will dig southeastward across the Great Lakes and Northeast Friday night through Sunday, while at the same time, a former cutoff upper low over the Southwest weakens into an open southern stream wave sliding toward the Southeast coast. This southern disturbance looks to support the development of a moisture-rich coastal low while its northern counterpart supports a incipient frontal system over the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. With these ingredients in place, the primary forecast question remains the degree to which these features phase in a way that transports subtropical moisture northward into the Northeast, which would result in more significant impacts for the local area. The GFS remains the outlier among numerical guidance suggesting significant phasing and robust northward transport of moisture, while other global deterministic guidance maintains a lesser degree of phasing and limiting the northward extent of moisture transport. Ensemble guidance lends further support to the tendency for more robust phasing to result in the potential for heavier precipitation across the region. At this lead time, there will likely be precipitation spreading across the region from west to east Friday night into Saturday, with the cool antecedent airmass and cold overnight temperatures in the upper 10s to low 30s supporting precipitation initially falling as snow. The amount of liquid equivalent precipitation will go a long way toward determining the impact of this system, with plowable snowfall possible, particularly across the southern Adirondacks and southern Greens. Precipitation lingering into Saturday will transition to rain at lower elevations as temperatures warm to afternoon highs in the upper 30s to upper 40s, with low to mid 30s in higher terrain. Precipitation looks to end late Saturday as the upper trough exits to the east, bringing a return to dry but cool weather across the region. Temperatures dip to lows in the 10s to mid 20s Saturday and Sunday nights, recovering to only the mid 20s to low 30s in high terrain and mid 30s to low 40s at lower elevations on Sunday. Temperatures may rebound toward seasonal norms for the beginning of next week.
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&& .AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 06Z Wednesday...VFR conditions expected to prevail at all terminals through much of the TAF period. Ongoing scattered snow showers extending south-southeastward from Lake Ontario are expected to diminish in coverage through the remainder of the overnight period. Some persistent showers may result in brief MVFR vsbys/cigs at GFL/PSF through 09Z Tue. Otherwise, bkn-ovc VFR cigs at 3-5 kft will trend toward lower cloud coverage by 12Z Tue, with sct skies most likely at POU and persistent bkn coverage of fair wx cu/strato-cu elsewhere. Cloud coverage will increase again late in the period, after 21Z Tue-00Z Wed, as another clipper low approaches from the west, bringing additional chances for MVFR vsbys/cigs within snow showers after 00Z Wed, mostly likely at ALB/GFL. West winds continue through much of the period, especially at ALB/PSF due to the favored flow direction along the Mohawk Valley, where winds of 10-15 kt gusting 20-25 kt are expected to persist into Tuesday evening, before diminishing by 00Z Wed. Lighter west winds overnight at GFL/POU will become gusty following the onset of diurnal mixing by 13-14Z Tue, before similarly diminishing by 00Z Wed. Winds at all terminals turn out of the southwest at less than 10 kt by 00Z Wed, trending toward southerly flow late in the period. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. Chance of SHSN. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SN. Saturday: High Operational Impact. Likely RA...SN. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA...SN. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. NO SIG WX.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER...
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Relative humidity expected to drop to minimum values around 35 to 40 percent this afternoon with wind gusts of 20 to 30 mph across portions of the Hudson Valley and northwestern Connecticut. Most areas are expected to see some light precipitation on Wednesday, but Thursday afternoon may also feature low RH values and breezy/gusty conditions in the afternoon, but also colder temperatures.
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&& .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JPV NEAR TERM...JPV SHORT TERM...JPV LONG TERM...Picard AVIATION...Picard FIRE WEATHER...JPV

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