Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 072102 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 402 PM EST Sun Mar 7 2021 .SYNOPSIS... The weather will be mainly tranquil with a substantial warming trend through the middle of the upcoming week. A weak disturbance may bring some light snow showers or mixed precipitation Monday night mainly to higher terrain areas. Temperatures are expected to be well above normal Tuesday through the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Early afternoon water vapor imagery shows the cold upper trough lingering over the Northeast, providing chilly temps despite full sunshine across the forecast area. Height rises are working their way into the Northeast from the west, which is resulting in high pressure at the surface building over western New York/the eastern Great Lakes. Lake clouds are well west of the forecast area, and I have given up the prospect of any clouds developing for the rest of the day. Highs are coming up 5-10F short of normal despite the strong insolation. Tonight, the surface high builds eastward, which should lead to good radiational cooling conditions, especially west of the Hudson where it is closer to the high and there is still snowpack. Cut back on overnight lows here, which should fall to 0 to -10F over the southern Adirondacks with mainly 0-15F elsewhere. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A mainly tranquil period with a substantial warming trend is expected from early to midweek. The cold upper trough that has been plaguing the Northeast lately will continue shifting offshore Monday, with NW flow aloft promoting subsidence and a ridge of high pressure at the surface. Abundant sunshine is expected, but mixing depths will be somewhat limited with the strong subsidence. Highs are expected to be around 5-10F warmer than Sunday mainly in the 30s, which is still a bit shy of normal. Clouds will increase late in the day Monday ahead of a moisture- starved northern stream wave tracking by to our north. Some light precipitation is possible with this wave, mainly over the higher terrain. The low levels may struggle to saturate, and when they do, the midlevel moisture is forecast to be exiting per model soundings. So any light precip may initially fall as snow early Monday night, with the potential for drizzle or freezing drizzle thereafter. Will add DZ/FZDZ to weather grids, but will not mention ice accretion or hazardous conditions in our products at this time as often impacts from FZDZ do not pan out. Lows Monday night mainly in the 20s. Tuesday, after early clouds and possibly some lingering patches of drizzle/freezing drizzle, subsidence once again takes hold in the wake of the northern stream wave. With the high located to the west, deep mixing is forecast by model soundings, which should give temperatures a boost assuming skies clear. Highs are forecast to be a solid 10-15F warmer than Monday, reaching the upper 30s to mid- 50s, which is solidly above normal. The high builds overhead Tuesday night which should yield good radiational cooling conditions, so bumped lows down a couple degrees from NBM guidance, mainly 20s. By Wednesday, the high is forecast to slide east, and low to mid- level south to southwest flow and warm air advection occurs. We are getting into the season where this type of wind flow can result in temperatures overachieving in the Capital District/Mid Hudson Valley due to downsloping off the Catskills, and this may be the case on Wednesday to an extent, especially if the flow turns more SW rather than S. The ground may need to dry out a bit more for this effect to become maximized, however. Bumped up highs a couple of degrees from NBM, with forecast highs approaching 60F in the Hudson Valley. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... The extended period starts off warm Thursday and Friday before a cold front moves through the region during the day Friday bringing a chance for some showers. Next weekend looks colder with a few scattered rain/snow showers possible. Details below... We begin the extended period Wednesday night with a cold front well to our west over the Great Lakes region. A weak shortwave will approach our area ahead of this cold front late Wednesday night, which could bring increased clouds and a few showers to our western areas. However, as this impulse moves to our north, expecting mainly dry conditions for the day Thursday. With the cold front still to our west and 850 mb temperatures +6-8C, expecting temperatures to rise into the 50s and low 60s across the region. Depending on how much sun we see and how deeply we mix, areas in the Hudson Valley could even see temperatures approach the mid 60s with a W/SW downslope wind. With increasing cloud cover ahead of the front Thursday night, expecting a relatively warm night with temperatures only dropping into the upper 30s to upper 40s. Friday morning the cold front approaches our region. This cold frontal passage has trended slightly slower over the last day or two, which could allow temperatures to once again reach the 50s and low 60s Friday, especially for our southern and eastern areas. Increasing chance for showers during the day Friday as the cold frontal boundary should be near our region. However, given that the primary low is well to the north of us, not expecting widespread or heavy precipitation during the day Friday. By later Friday afternoon, most areas, especially north and west of the Capital District, should dry out as the front moves through the region. Friday night and Saturday, the cold frontal boundary sags to our south, but models disagree on how far the boundary makes it. Regardless, temperatures should be much cooler than on Friday, with high temperatures only in the 30s to upper 40s across the region. If the boundary gets hung up just south of our region as the GFS shows, cannot rule out a few rain or rain/snow showers during the day Saturday, especially for our southern areas. Sunday, expecting even colder temperatures in the 30s to around 40 for most of the region as a strong high located near or north of the Great Lakes ushers in colder air with a northwesterly wind. Our next storm system will be a cutoff low that ejects out of the four corners region of the southwestern US. All models keep us mainly dry through the day Sunday, although the typically progressive GFS has this system knocking on our doorstep by the end of the day Sunday. The Euro/CMC are much slower with this system. Given these significant model discrepancies, forecast confidence for this time period is low and adjustments will likely be made in the coming days. However, given progressive GFS bias and recent model trends, current thinking is that we should remain dry through at least Sunday night. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Through 12z Monday.... VFR conditions are expected to persist through the 12z TAF cycle. Expect a mostly sunny day with just a few high cirrus clouds as a 1028+ mb surface high pressure system builds into the region. Winds will be light out of the northwest at 5-10 kts through the 12z TAF cycle. Outlook... Monday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHSN. Tuesday to Wed night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of RA. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological issues are expected through the mid to latter portion of next week. Cold and mainly dry weather will persist today into Monday with little impact on the waterways. Any decrease in snowpack will be through sublimation. A weak disturbance and a warm front will bring a few hundredths of QPF to a few spots Monday night. Tuesday through the mid week temperatures will moderate above normal with some snow melt. The next chance of widespread showers may not occur until late Thu into Fri. Total QPF does not look very heavy with the frontal passage late in the week with a tenth to a quarter inch perhaps across northern basins. Some ripening of the dense snow pack is possible over the northern mountains. Some river and streams may show a diurnal fluctuation in flows/hydro traces with snow melt through the mid to end of the week. However, widespread ice break-up or hydro issues are not anticipated at this time on the rivers/streams. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thompson NEAR TERM...Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...Main AVIATION...Speciale HYDROLOGY...Wasula

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