Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 251755 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 155 PM EDT Tue Jun 25 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Conditions will become warm and muggy today as a warm front moves through. Chances for showers will decrease this afternoon with fair weather expected this evening. The upcoming week still looks active with the approach and passage of a cold front. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... Band of showers in the process of crossing into western New England and steady progress suggests it will exit western New England by mid afternoon. There is clearing behind the rain with a few convective clouds in the sunshine in central NY but the atmosphere seems capped and any showers that could develop this afternoon would be so isolated, not including in forecast for this afternoon. Winds will be light but the increasing sunshine will help temperatures reach into the 70s to lower 80s. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/... Rather active short term period of this forecast. Tonight should remain rather tranquil as building anticyclonic flow at the surface slides into the region. Upper flow remains somewhat cyclonic but trending toward a zonal flow across the Great Lakes and Northeast Corridor of the CONUS. This will lead toward a potential active period of weather Wednesday. A short wave across the Dakotas is expected to track eastward with its attending weak surface trough axis. Combine that with daytime heating and lake breeze developments could aid in the develop of scattered convection during the afternoon hours. We will hold onto the previous excellent forecast with chc-sct PoPs for the entire region. SBCAPES per modified parcel soundings suggest values near 2k J/Kg with modest shear values of 20-30kts. Conditions improve Wednesday night with some patchy fog developing as weak surface high builds and crests over the region overnight. The weakness in the pressure fields and nearly zonal flow aloft could leave the window open for additional convection on Thursday. While synoptic flow will generally be westerly, some subtle hints that southern areas may have some weak surface convergence for isolated convection to redevelop. Per coordination with neighboring offices, we will introduce slight chance PoPs for southern half of the region. Otherwise, warm and humid conditions once again for 80s in valley locations and 70s elsewhere. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... The main weather maker during the long term period will be an amplified shortwave trough that digs southward into New England from Quebec. This trough will bring chances for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Thursday night into the day Friday, conditions should remain warm and muggy as surface high pressure slides through the region. Temperatures Thursday night will be in the lower 60s but warm into the mid 80s by Friday afternoon. Shower chances return as early as Friday afternoon/evening as an upper level disturbance and weak front drops through the region. This front appears to get hung up across the southern portion of the forecast area, providing additional focus for rain chances. The aforementioned shortwave trough begins digging southward on Saturday, sending pieces of energy into our area. This will result in shower chances increasing throughout the day, along with chances for thunderstorms. The latest GFS model guidance indicates Showalter indices of -1 to -2, LIs -3 to -6 with 500-1000 J/kg surface based CAPE. 0-6km lapse rates are also around 6 to 7 deg C/km given the strength of the cold air aloft. So storms will have the potential to become strong through this period. Shower and storm chances continue into Sunday as the main trough axis swings through New England. Cooler, somewhat drier air invades the region in the wake of the upper trough for Monday. Highs will generally be in the 70s with dry weather expected through Monday night. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Conditions will continue to improve this afternoon with decreasing cloud cover. MVFR conditions may linger for a couple hours and a bit longer a KPSF. With wet ground from today`s rainfall, humid conditions with dew points in the 60s and light winds tonight fog is expected to develop especially at KPSF and KGFL where MVFR-IFR conditions are expected. Fog will lift and burn off after sunrise with VFR conditions expected through the end of the TAF period, 18Z/Wednesday. Convection is expected to develop Wednesday afternoon after 18Z. Light southerly winds will shift to the west late in the day/early this evening. The winds will diminish becoming light and variable to calm for the overnight. A light southwesterly flow will develop Wednesday morning with a more westerly flow at KPSF. Outlook... Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...FG...TSRA. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Showers and some thunderstorms will impact the region this morning as a warm front passes through the region. Warm and muggy conditions with an additional threat for additional mainly afternoon showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of this week. The upcoming week still looks active with the approach and passage of a cold front. General RH values remain near or above 50 percent through the short term portion of the forecast with winds generally around 10 mph or less. && .HYDROLOGY... This week will begin with showers and some embedded thunderstorms this morning and early evening. Another threat for additional showers and thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon. Then more chances for showers and thunderstorms will return for the weekend with more active weather. Storm total QPF for the rain and thunderstorms today will range from about 0.25 inches to 0.75 inches, with an additional 0.25 inches possible on Wednesday evening with any showers/thunderstorms. No significant flooding is expected at this time and all rivers and creeks should stay well within bank full. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...IAA/BGM NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...BGM LONG TERM...JLV AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...Cebulko/BGM HYDROLOGY...Cebulko/BGM

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