Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 241030 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 630 AM EDT Thu Jun 24 2021 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather today, with a mostly sunny sky, seasonable temperatures and comfortable levels of humidity. Although there will be more clouds around for Friday, it will continue to be dry with temperatures near normal. Warmer and more humid weather is expected for the weekend into early next week, along with the chance for some showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
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As of 630 AM EDT...An elongated area of high pressure extends from the New England Seacoast southwest towards the Jersey Shore, with the highest pressure values around 1030 hpa just along the coast of eastern New England. IR satellite imagery shows fairly clear skies over the region, with the only clouds being some very thin high cirrus clouds over the Adirondacks into southern Vermont. Some patchy fog formed late in the overnight along of the river valleys, but this is now starting to dissipate thanks to strong late June sunshine. All fog should be gone by about 8 AM or so. Through the day today, high pressure will slowly depart off to the east into the western Atlantic. In response, a light southerly flow will develop at low levels. Along with building heights and warming temps aloft (850 hpa temps reaching back up to 10 to 12 C), highs today will be noticeably milder than yesterday (about 5 to 10 degrees warmer). Afternoon temps will be close to normal, with readings in the mid 70s to low 80s for most areas. Dewpoints will still be on the lower side (mid 40s to low 50s), as the light southerly flow won`t bring the higher moisture in just yet, and it will continue to feel quite comfortable outdoors.
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&& .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... For tonight, both clouds and low-level moisture will be on the increase as a weak wave of low pressure offshore the mid- Atlantic States lifts towards southern New England for late tonight into tomorrow morning. There may be a few light rain showers with this feature, although the bulk of them will be remaining east of the area, as the best forcing/moisture stays off to the east. Have gone with slight chance POPs for late tonight into early tomorrow for far southern and eastern areas (mid Hudson Valley into western New England). Otherwise, most areas will be partly to mostly cloudy tonight with dewpoints starting to creep back upward. Despite the increase in some clouds, it still looks fairly comfortable tonight with lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s. Temps on Friday should reach the mid 70s to mid 80s with a partly sunny sky and dewpoints rising through the 50s. For the remainder of the short-term period, our region will be situated with southwest flow through much of the troposphere, as we will be located between a building ridge to our southeast and a deepening trough over the Midwest. This will allow for temps to rise and moisture to build over the area. It will be much milder on Friday night, as a partly cloudy sky and light breeze keeps temps held up in the mid 50s to mid 60s. By Saturday, skies will vary from partly sunny to mostly cloudy. There could be a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm on Saturday, although activity looks fairly sparse in coverage, as the best forcing for lift will still be well off to the west. Still, moisture will be abundant, as dewpoints rise well into the 60s. Assuming enough breaks in the clouds occur (which there should be), there will be plenty of warmth as well, as 850 hpa temps of 15 to 17 C allows for highs to reach into the 80s for valley areas. Best chance for showers/storms looks to be during the peak heating hours and probably over the terrain to the north/west of the Capital Region. It looks to remain mild and muggy into Saturday night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s for most spots. Can`t rule out a shower over the Adirondacks, but most of the activity should be ending with the loss of daytime heating. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Increasing summer warmth and humidity levels through the long term period of the forecast with uncertainty with respect to probability of precipitation and placement(s). Latest 00Z global guidance are in all agreement with western Atlantic ridge axis building and retrograding toward the middle Atlantic coastline. Global models differ to extent and placement of this near 600DM heights at H500 which will also have an impact on chances of precipitation. The combination of climbing H850 temperatures near 20C and PWATs climbing close to 2.00", we can not rule out any period with the chance for showers and thunderstorms. In fact, if some of the ensembles were to be correct, could see a period of moderate to heavy rainfall with training echoes across portions of the region. Frontal placement and/or differential heating boundaries will all play a synoptic role hence our low confidence with placement of PoPs. For now, per collaboration with neighboring offices and WPC, we will keep chance-scattered PoPs through the long term with temperatures climbing well into the 80s for many locations (could see some lower 90s if more sunshine and better mixing were to occur) and humidity levels climbing as dewpoints return well into the 60s and lower 70s. Eventually the upstream positive tilted trough axis will approach as the ridge axis breaks down which could occur toward the middle part or end of next week. && .AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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High pressure will move south and east of the region during the daylight hours. Any fog will quickly dissipate this morning leaving behind another ideal flight condition day. A few-sct diurnal cumulus and cirrus will be around as the subsidence from the ridge should keep mostly sunny conditions. Heading into tonight, low level flow increases as some stratus from the Atlantic may approach and bring some lower CIGS. At this time, the higher confidence for MVFR conditions would be at KPOU- KPSF. The winds will be calm early this morning, and then increase from the south and southeast at 5-10 kt in the late morning into the afternoon. Some gusts for KALB are expected. Winds become light and variable again tonight. Outlook... Friday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Saturday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Sunday: Low Operational Impact. Breezy. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
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&& .FIRE WEATHER... High pressure will continue to allow for dry weather today. RH values will fall through the day, bottoming out around 35 to 40 percent this afternoon. Southerly winds will be 5 to 10 mph today. RH values will recover overnight, with dew formation likely. There will be more clouds around on Friday and afternoon RH values will only lower to 40 to 50 percent with southerly winds around 5 to 10 mph. The threat for scattered showers and thunderstorms will return for over the weekend into early next week. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry weather is expected through at least Friday, allowing for rivers and streams to hold steady. Over the weekend and into early next week, a frontal boundary will make slow progress towards the area. Showers and thunderstorms may occur each day, primarily during the afternoon and evening hours, with the greatest coverage for areas north and west of the Capital Region. With moisture returning above normal, there will be a threat for locally heavy downpours with any shower or thunderstorm that develops. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Frugis NEAR TERM...Frugis SHORT TERM...Frugis LONG TERM...BGM AVIATION...BGM FIRE WEATHER...Frugis HYDROLOGY...Frugis

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