Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 192056 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 356 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Mainly dry weather is expected for the upcoming week, although temperatures will be very cold to start the week. Temperatures should moderate back above normal by late in the week. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/... Snow showers and snow flurries are gradually building south along the cold front as winds will shift to the north northwest and boundary layer winds shift more to the north. Deep cold advection will spread across our region through the night and the north winds and increased subsidence should help clouds to break up through the night. Lows in the single numbers to mid teens but around zero to just below zero northern areas. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... High pressure gradually builds in from the west as one more piece of upper energy tracks through northern New England and SE Canada by Tuesday along the leading edge of upper ridging that will build into our region beyond Tuesday. However, for Monday, considerable sunshine and colder weather with highs in the 20s to near 30 but teens in northern areas. Northwest winds will diminish tonight through Monday. There could be some flurries in northern areas Tuesday with intervals of clouds associated with the upper energy that brushes northern areas. Highs Tuesday in the 20s to near 30 but teens in northern areas. Upper ridging builds into our region as low level ridging begins to build east. Weak warm advection occurs through the day with some intervals of high clouds possible. Highs Wednesday in the 30s but mid to upper 20s northern areas. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... High pressure will remain anchored across the mid-Atlantic bringing dry weather through at least Friday. Then, focus will be on the next winter storm which may affect the area next weekend. From Wednesday night through Friday, atmospheric profiles show abundant dry air in the low and mid-levels. On occasion, there will be enough upper-level moisture for high clouds overhead. Overall, expect partly cloudy conditions during this period. Temperatures will trend higher than earlier in the week with highs Thursday and Friday in the 30s to lower 40s. By next weekend, forecast models continue to indicate a storm system affecting the eastern United States. As normal from a system 6-7 days out, model agreement is poor. The GFS, for example, generally shows a weaker low pressure system tracking north and west of the region. This would result in all p-types possible across the region. However, the ECMWF forms a coastal low off the mid-Atlantic Coast and could bring most if not all snow to the region. It remains way too early to know exact details, but is something to monitor closely throughout the week. && .AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SCT SHSN on radar across the region now. Area of SHSN will slide south through the afternoon. Have kept KGFL out of the activity. At worst, looking at some MVFR VSBY/CIGS in SHSN at remaining terminals. VFR conditions return by evening and continue through the remainder of the TAF period. Outlook... Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .HYDROLOGY... Dry and cold weather is expected into much of the upcoming week. This will allow ice to form and strengthen on area bodies of water. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...NAS NEAR TERM...NAS SHORT TERM...NAS LONG TERM...Rathbun AVIATION...MSE/OKeefe HYDROLOGY...NAS is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.