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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KALY 061426
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
1026 AM EDT Tue Jun 6 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system and a cold front will bring some
showers and thunderstorms to eastern New York and western New
England today into tonight. The unsettled weather continues
Wednesday into Thursday with scattered showers due to an upper low
over northern New England.  Temperatures will run cooler than normal
to close the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
-- Changed Discussion --
Smoke and haze over the region with a few isolated showers in
northern areas. The showers in northern areas will expand as
showers and thunderstorms track south through the afternoon and
evening. Temperatures will climb near current forecasted highs
in the 60s to lower 70s. Just minor adjustments to temperatures,
sky cover and timing of rain chances.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
A closed mid and upper level low near Nova Scotia continues to
influence the sensible weather across NY and New England this
morning. A weak wave of low pressure moving across southern
Quebec and its trailing cold front interacting with an H500
short-wave rotating around the closed low continues to bring
some isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms over
the northern and eastern Catskills. Widespread haze due to the
soot and particulates from the Quebec fires persists in the
lower troposphere. We adjusted PoPs and weather with this
update. VSBYS are in the 4-6SM range with the hazy skies.

The closed H500 low will retrograde slowly westward today with
another short-wave impulse moving across the region in the
north/northwest flow. Mid and low level lapse rates will steepen
with dewpoints in the 40s to lower 50s. Isolated to scattered
thunderstorms are expected to develop with low to pockets of
moderate instability with 0-6 km shear of 15-20 KT. Instability
values vary on the CAMS with the 3-km NAM the greatest with sfc
dewpts too high. The latest 06Z 3-km HRRR looks more on track
with SB/MUCAPEs of 500-1000 J/kg and DCAPEs of 500-750 J/kg.
Small hail (mainly 0.5" or less) and gusty winds of 30-50 mph
look possible. Non-severe thunderstorms are expected, but the
threat is non-zero, so we will have to monitor for an isolated
severe.

Haze will be an issue, but the best heating will likely occur
from the Capital Region south and east. Highs close to the NBM
maxes were favored with low to mid 70s in the valley areas and
60s over the hills and mtns with a few pockets of upper 50s over
the southern Greens and Adirondacks.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Tonight...Any convection should weaken with the loss of the
diurnal heating. In the cyclonic flow, isolated to scattered
showers will linger and it will be cool. Lows fall back into the
40s with a few upper 30s over the eastern Catskills.

Wednesday the upper low moves over Northern New England. Heights
fall a couple STDEVs below normal with H850 temps -1 to -2
STDEVS below normal. The cyclonic vorticity with the mid and
upper level low will focus some scattered showers. It will be
cool with temps in the upper 50s over the northern zones to the
lower 70s in the mid Hudson Valley. Overall, highs will be about
5-7 degrees below normal.

Wed night through Thursday more coolish weather will impact the
forecast area for June with isolated to scattered showers Wed
evening with the coverage becoming less overnight. Lows will
again be in the 40s. Thursday, expect showers to ignite timed to
the diurnal heating with the closed/cutoff low hanging on over
Maine. Highs will struggle to clear the 60s with 50s over the
mtns. The rainfall is much needed after an anomalously dry May.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
Unsettled weather and normal to cooler than normal temperatures can
be expected during the long-term forecast period. Global
deterministic models and ensembles continue to advertise a large mid-
upper trough over the Northeast U.S. late week. While this feature
will slowly slide off/depart to the east late week into the weekend,
it will bring chances for diurnal showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms.

Sunday into the early parts of next week, forecast models are
suggesting a more widespread chance for rain (showers and perhaps
thunder) as a cold front approaches and moves over the area.

As highlighted earlier, temperatures are expected to run near normal
to cooler than normal levels during the period thanks to the mid-
upper trough that will be in place. High temperatures on Friday are
expected to be in the 60s areawide with areas along the river
valleys near 70F. Saturday through Tuesday, highs are expected to be
mainly in the mid 70s along the river valleys (60s higher
elevations). Overnight low temperatures will mainly be in the 40s
and 50s about the area during this period.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Through 12z Wednesday...Conditions are VFR-MVFR at all of the
terminals with ceilings between 5-10 kft AGL. Widespread haze over
the area due to the Canadian wildfires which is restricting
visibilities some. MVFR to VFR vsbys are expected to persist today
as a result.

There`s the chance for some showers and isolated to scattered
thunderstorms to develop during the diurnal peak heating hours this
afternoon/evening. Due to the isolated to scattered nature of
showers and thunderstorms, have maintained Prob30s and included some
TEMPOs for the TAF sites during this time. Any showers or storms
that move over the TAF sites will have the potential to briefly
reduce flight categories, particularly visibilities down to MVFR-IFR
levels. Other that that, expect for VFR-MVFR conditions to persist
through the 12z TAF cycle.

Light and variable to calm winds overnight tonight will develop out
of the north-northwest between 5-15 kts with gusts as high as 20 kts
during the day on Tuesday. There could be higher wind gusts on the
order of 20-35 kts from any thunderstorms.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Saturday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Wasula
NEAR TERM...NAS/Wasula
SHORT TERM...Wasula
LONG TERM...Evbuoma
AVIATION...Evbuoma