Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 081858 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 258 PM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be mostly sunny and warm, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High pressure builds in tonight into Sunday with dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal Sunday afternoon. An upper level disturbance may bring a shower or thunderstorm to the northern part of the area Sunday evening. The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week along with the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/... As of 258 PM EDT...radar showing some widely isolated showers over the southern Adirondacks. Cell movement has been almost west to east. Skies have almost cleared out in valley locations with sct to bkn cumulus over the high terrain. Still looking for a modest increase in coverage of showers later today, but showers/storms still remaining generally isolated. Temperatures have warmed into the upper 70s in the hills to mid 80s in the valleys. For tonight, any lingering showers and storms should die out before midnight as a narrow high pressure ridge builds in at the surface and aloft. This ridge will bring mainly fair and cool weather tonight. With light winds and good radiational cooling, areas of fog are expected, especially in the river valleys. Lows tonight from the mid to upper 50s in the hill towns to the mid 60s in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... Sunday morning a ridge of high pressure is right overhead bringing a far and cool morning, but by afternoon it is forecast to shift south and east of New England. Sunday afternoon, an upper level shortwave and associated sfc low pressure is moving from southern Ontario into southern Quebec. Models show most of the precipitation with this system north of the Albany Forecast Area, but all have some precipitation, in the form of scattered showers/storms, push into the northern third to half of the area by Sunday evening. Highs on Sunday from the upper 70s in the hills to upper 80s in the valleys. Its a quick moving system, so that by 8 AM Monday, upper level and surface ridging is already building back in. Residual morning clouds and fog should quickly give way to sunshine. Monday looks fair and becoming hot as forecast H850 temps rise to +17C to +18C. Sfc dewpts increase into the 60s to around 70F in a few spots in the mid Hudson Valley. The combination of the high air temps /upper 80s to lower 90s/ and dewpts will allow apparent temps or heat indices to rise into the mid 90s in the mid Hudson Valley. We may need a Heat Advisory for the mid Hudson Valley on Monday. Max temps will get into the mid 80s to lower 90s in the valley areas, and upper 70s to mid 80s over the hills and mtns. Some terrain/differential heating pop-up showers/thunderstorms are possible Monday afternoon. Monday night, pop-up showers should end in the evening as the suns heating decreases. Mainly fair and muggy weather is forecast with lows in the 60s to around 70. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Above normal temperatures will continue through most of the long term period, with flat upper ridging extending into the region from the southern U.S. Tuesday looks to be the peak day for the upcoming heat, as mixed layer winds are forecast to shift to the southwest and 850 mb positive temperature anomalies (with actual 850 temps of +17C to +20 C) are forecast to be greatest. Downsloping off the Catskills/Helderbergs in the SW flow should result in the warmest temps occurring in the Hudson Valley, especially from the Capital District southward. Combined with dewpoints in the upper 60s/lower 70s, maximum heat index values should be in the mid/upper 90s in the Hudson Valley. Will continue to mention a Heat Advisory may be needed in the Hazardous Weather Outlook. Values may even be approach or exceed 95 in the Mohawk Valley and lower elevations in southern VT, so will monitor trends. There is a chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly in the afternoon to early evening, as a weak disturbance and surface trough move across the region. Best chances look to be west of the Hudson Valley. Low temperatures Tuesday night mainly in the 60s to lower/mid 70s. While slightly cooler compared to Tuesday, it will still be very warm and humid on Wednesday as our region will still be under the influence of upper level ridging extending NW from the western Atlantic. The main focus for convection will be a slow-moving front that may become quasi-stationary somewhere across or our area. So will continue to mention a chance of showers/storms, mainly during the afternoon to early evening hours. Heat indices could still reach or exceed 95 in valley areas from Albany south and east. Nighttime lows mainly in the 60s to lower 70s. No discernible change in air mass expected for Thursday and Friday, with the 00Z guidance indicating the aforementioned front to shift slightly southward, but remaining nearly stationary. Will limit chance pops to the southern half of the area each day (from the Mohawk valley/Capital District/southern VT south and east), with only slight chance to the north. Again, the most favorable times for convection will be tied to the diurnal heating cycle. Temps expected to remain above normal, with humid conditions persisting as well. Heat indices on Thursday could still approach the mid 90s within portions of the mid Hudson Valley and lower elevations in NW CT. By next Saturday, there may be some relief as cooler/drier air builds south and east from Canada. However, the frontal boundary may still remain nearby to our south, so will keep slight chances for showers across southern areas. Highs mainly in the lower/mid 80s in valleys, and 75-80 for higher elevations. Lows Sat night may fall into the 50s for the Adirondacks, with 60s elsewhere. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Through 18z/Sun...VFR conditions remain with fair weather cu around 5000 ft continuing throughout the afternoon before gradually dissipating this evening. Isolated showers/t-storms will develop this afternoon, mainly across the higher terrain. Latest guidance continues to support none impacting any TAF sites so will omit VCSH with this update. With a mostly clear sky tonight, patchy low clouds and fog may develop. Best fog chances will be at KGFL/KPSF with cigs/vsbys lowering to MVFR or possibly even down to IFR/LIFR. Patchy low clouds, if any, are more likely at KALB/KPOU, where VFR conditions should continue. Any fog or low clouds gradually lift Sunday morning with few-sct fair weather cu developing by midday. Wind will be variable at 5 kt or less this afternoon, then go calm tonight. Wind will then be out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt tomorrow. Outlook... Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA. Monday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Scattered SHRA...TSRA. && .FIRE WEATHER... Today will be mostly sunny and warm, with an isolated shower or thunderstorm. High pressure builds in tonight into Sunday with dry weather and temperatures rising back above normal Sunday afternoon. An upper level disturbance may bring a shower or thunderstorm to the northern part of the area Sunday evening. The heat and humidity increases for Monday into the mid week along with the chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The RH values will increase to 90 to 100 percent with areas of dew and fog formation Sunday morning. The RH values will lower to 45 to 55 percent Sunday afternoon. The RH values will again increase to 90 to 100 percent with areas of dew and fog formation Monday morning. The winds will be light and variable in direction at 10 mph or less today. They will become light to calm tonight, and then increase from the south to southwest at 5 to 10 mph on Sunday. On Sunday night, winds will remain 5 to 10 mph on the hills but become near calm in valley locations. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread hydrological problems on expected in the ALY Hydro Service Area /HSA/ the next several days through the end of next week. Forecast rainfall across the HSA the next 7 days ranges from around a tenth of an inch to around an inch and a half. Rainfall will be variable during this period due to isolated to scattered thunderstorms, but the highest amounts look to be in the eastern Catskills. The most widespread threat of showers and thunderstorms looks to be Tuesday into Thursday with a slow moving cold front. Localized ponding of water or poor drainage flooding is possible where thunderstorms produce locally heavy downpours. No river flooding is forecast. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SND NEAR TERM...SND SHORT TERM...SND LONG TERM...KL/JPV AVIATION...Rathbun FIRE WEATHER...SND HYDROLOGY...SND

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