Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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000 FXUS61 KALY 302009 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 409 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2020 .SYNOPSIS... An upper level low will continue to bring some rain and snow showers to the region tonight into tomorrow. More clouds than sunshine is expected by Wednesday, but it should be a mainly dry day as the low weakens. Temperatures will remain a little cooler than normal as we close March and enter April. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... As of 400 PM EDT...A cutoff low continues to be situated north of Lake Ontario with multiple short-wave impulses rotating around it. One short-wave is moving across upstate NY into eastern NY and western New England with the showers persistent in coverage from the Capital Region northward including the Berkshires. The freezing level on the 12Z KALY sounding was right around 3 kft AGL. The enhancement of the echoes on the radar is due to the low freezing level. The core of the coldest air at H500 is about -27C over southeast Ontario. The cyclonic vorticity advection will continue the showers into tonight with snow initially at 1500 feet or so in greater. We had some reports of snow at 2200 feet in Stratton in southern VT. We did add a slight chance of thunderstorms south of the Capital Region across the mid Hudson Valley, southern Taconics, southern Berkshires and NW CT where some weak instability could be tapped into, as an occluded front and the short-wave move across the region. The elevated instability is not as impressive as yesterday. The clouds have been prevalent today though. The core of the coldest air with the upper level low will settle southward over west-central NY tonight. In doing so, the rain showers could transition to snow showers even in the valley areas shortly before or just after midnight. The 3-km NAMnest shows this for even the Mohawk Valley and the Capital Region, and we think that coating to a couple tenths will be possible on the grassy surfaces, if the dewpoint drop. The higher elevations such as the southern Greens, southern Adirondacks, and eastern Catskills could get 1-2" with isolated 3" amounts. The Berkshires could see an inch or two at 2000 ft or greater. Lows were favored toward a blend of the GFS/ECM MOS with mid 20s to lower 30s in the mountains and lower to mid 30s in the valleys. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... Tomorrow...The cutoff will still be over NY and and New England and may actually open drift a little eastward based on the guidance. Model soundings and RH profiles continue to be very moist and there is enough of a cold pool for isolated showers in the higher terrain and possibly a few sprinkles of showers to creep into the Capital region. Mostly cloudy or cloudy conditions are expected with light winds. Max temps should run a little below normal with mid 30s to lower 40s over the higher terrain and mid and upper 40s in the lower elevations. Tue Night...The upper level low begin to further weaken and decay over the forecast area with variable cloudiness expected at night. If locations become clear or partly cloudy, then temps could plummet with light winds. Lows will be in the mid 20s to around 30F across most of the region. Wed-Wed night...Spokes of vorticity continue to rotate around the cutoff, but they are expected to miss most of the forecast area, as the storm track remains to the south and east, as H500 cutoff remains over upstate NY (central and eastern NY). Some clouds may mix with some sunshine and we continued a dry forecast. Max temps trend closer to seasonable readings for early April. Variable cloudiness is expected for Wed night with perhaps some clouds retrograding westward across the region from New England. Lows are still expected in the mid 20s to lower 30s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... One last upper impulse is expected to track south around the western periphery of the upper low circulation, through the northeastern U.S. Thursday. Scattered showers and more clouds than sun can be expected. Highs Thursday in the upper 40s to lower 50s but lower 40s northern areas. The mean upper closed low and trailing upper troughing will build slowly east through Friday and upper ridging will build from the midwest and Great Lakes into our region into next weekend with increasing warm advection through the weekend. There are some initial indications in sources of guidance/ensembles for a northern stream upper impulse to track southeast out of Canada as the upper ridging in the eastern U.S. flattens. The upper energy could support isolated to scattered showers Sunday into Monday. Highs Friday and Saturday in the upper 40s to mid 50s with more widespread mid 50s Saturday. Highs Sunday in the 50s to near 60 and potentially a couple of degrees warmer Monday with a few lower 60s in some places. && .AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... MVFR ceilings will continue at GFL, ALB and POU through 18UTC Tuesday with IFR ceilings at PSF expected to improve to MVFR tomorrow morning. A few areas of showers are ongoing across the region but visibilities have remained VFR even in showers. A steadier line of rain is expected to push through from west to east between 19 UTC and 00 UTC through our TAF sites which may reduce visibility down to IFR levels. We included a TEMPO group to highlight this period. While showers should diminish in coverage and intensity after 00 UTC, showers are expected to increase in coverage towards 04-06 UTC, mainly for TAF sites near the Hudson River. Ceilings may reduce to IFR for a period from 06 UTC to 11 UTC with even potential for rain to mix with snow at GFL and ALB, depending on if the heavier showers reach the Hudson or stay just to the west. We included this potential is a PROB30 group. Ceilings likely remain MVFR through 18 UTC tomorrow even though showers exit the region. Winds will be light through the TAF period. Southeast winds this afternoon turn north to northeast tonight. Speeds generally will be 5 kts or less. Outlook... Tuesday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA. Thursday Night to Saturday: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... An upper level low will continue to bring some rain and snow showers to the region tonight into tomorrow. More clouds than sunshine is expected by Wednesday, but it should be a mainly dry day as the low weakens. Temperatures will remain a little cooler than normal as we close March and enter April. The RH values will be high tonight and Wednesday morning in the 85 to 100 percent range in the moist air mass. The RH values will only lower to 55 to 70 percent tomorrow afternoon. The winds will generally be light and vary in direction at less than 10 mph. && .HYDROLOGY... No widespread flooding is expected in the ALY HSA over the next several days. An upper level low will continue to bring scattered to occasional rain and snow showers to the region late this afternoon into Tuesday. Total QPF will range from a tenth to a third of an inch with some locally higher amounts. The latest NERFC forecasts do not have any river points such as the Schroon at Riverbank and the West Canada at Hinckley reaching flood stage at this point and barely getting to the Alert Stage later in the week. Flows should continue to lower during the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Wasula NEAR TERM...Wasula SHORT TERM...Wasula LONG TERM...NAS AVIATION...Speciale FIRE WEATHER...Wasula HYDROLOGY...BGM/Wasula is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.