Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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455 FXUS61 KALY 231030 AFDALY AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Albany NY 630 AM EDT Sat Mar 23 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Snow showers will diminish this morning with increasing sunshine this afternoon. It will remain chilly and blustery. Temperatures rebound to above normal Sunday with early sunshine giving way to increasing clouds. Chilly weather returns for Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 620 am, cancelled all winter headlines. Snowfall intensity and extent has diminished and should continue to do so through mid-morning. Additional accumulations should be an inch or less and mainly confined to the favored upslope locations in the northern Taconics, southern Greens, and northern Berkshires. The stacked upper low will depart rather quickly today, with midlevel height and surface pressure rises in its wake. Morning cloud cover will give way to afternoon sunshine. Tight pressure gradient will ensure winds remain gusty. However, limited mixing depths to only around 900 mb beneath a strong and lowering inversion along with diminishing 925 mb winds with time and cloudy morning conditions suggest we should remain largely below advisory (40 kt) criteria. We could certainly see isolated gusts to around 40 kt through around 15Z AOA 1500 feet elevation (and we have already seen gusts in excess of 40 kt at KPSF and the Voorheesville and Herkimer NYS Mesonet site), but the thought is that these gusts should remain infrequent enough and confined to a small enough space and time to preclude wind advisory issuance. Will continue to mention in the HWO. Temperatures today will remain 5-10F below seasonal normals. Forecast highs were a blend of the cooler raw 2m guidance and much warmer MOS numbers. Tonight, winds diminish but remain somewhat elevated between high pressure to our south and an approaching cold front from the north. Clear skies expected with lows near normal. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... With warm advection aloft having occurred the previous night and clear skies to start off the day, we are poised for a quick warm-up Sunday. High temperatures will rebound nicely, perhaps some 5-10F above normal. High clouds will increase, thicken, and lower during the afternoon and evening as some moisture advection occurs ahead of a cold front moving in from the north. A band of light showers associated with the front may move into our northernmost zones during the late afternoon and evening, with rain transitioning to snow. Midlevel dynamics are fairly weak with this front, and the best moisture remains to our south, so expect the band of showers to weaken with southward extent as the front traverses our area from north to south Sunday night. Low-level cold advection is robust though, so temperatures should fall quickly behind the front, and we are back to seasonably cool temperatures by Monday. Have reduced PoPs for Monday given model trends. May have to reduce them even more with future forecasts if current trends showing an aggressive push of dry air with strong anticyclone expanding into the area hold. Any light snowfall accumulations Sunday night into Monday should be confined to areas above 1000 feet elevation. Chilly but dry Monday night with continued feed of cold advection as the surface high remains positioned to our west. H850 temps fall to around -12 to -16C by 12Z Tuesday, 1 to 2 standard deviations below normal. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Temperatures are expected to moderate with below normal readings Tuesday, near seasonable Wednesday and above normal Thursday and Friday. The region is expected to be under the influence of an expansive high. The high will originate from Canada dropping southward and building in across the region in the wake of a departing cold front. The center of the surface high is expected to shift directly over the region Tuesday night and Wednesday with the center of the high shifting off the coast beginning Wednesday night. A return flow about the high will develop bringing warmer air into the region. Aloft, the upper trough is expected to be departing on Tuesday with ridging building in however the guidance is in disagreement to what the amplitude of the upper level ridging will be across the region. Expecting abundant sunshine with light winds Tuesday through Thursday. Clouds are expected to be in the increase Thursday night and Friday as cold front moves into the Great Lakes region and deep southwesterly develops between the departing ridge and an advancing trough. Only expecting highs from the lower 20s to lower 40s Tuesday with chilly lows Tuesday night from the single digits to mid 20s. Highs Wednesday are expected to be 10 degrees warmer than Tuesday and another 10 degrees warmer on Thursday. By Friday expecting highs mainly in the 50s to around 60 degrees up the Hudson River Valley. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... A stacked low pressure system will continue to impact the area as it moves northeastward away from the region. The snow will continue to taper off early this morning. VFR conditions are expected with overall cloud cover decreasing as the day progresses. The exception will be for MVFR ceilings linger at KPSF this morning. Brisk and gusty west-northwest winds will persist across the area through much of day with sustained speeds of 15 to 25 knots and gusts of 25 to 35 knots. The winds begin to decrease by late afternoon and more so during the evening. Outlook... Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...SHSN. Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. Thursday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX. && .FIRE WEATHER... After a couple of damp days, morning clouds and snow showers will give way to increasing afternoon sunshine. Winds will remain quite gusty from the west-northwest, with some gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Temperatures will remain well below normal. Plentiful sunshine on Sunday will lead to a quick warm-up with temperatures rebounding into the 40s and 50s. Winds will be a bit lower from the west-southwest but some gusts to around 20 to 25 mph are still possible. RH values will fall into the 30s south of I-88/I-90, but remain in the 40s and 50s to the north. Seasonably cool weather will return behind a cold front for Monday, with a few light rain and snow showers possible, especially early. && .HYDROLOGY... No hydrologic issues are anticipated this weekend and into next week. Snow showers will diminish this morning and temperatures will be below normal. Temperatures rebound above normal briefly for Sunday, but go back below normal Monday and Tuesday, which should limit snow melt. Precipitation forecast is hydrologically insignificant through the week. For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs on our website. && .ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. NY...None. MA...None. VT...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thompson NEAR TERM...Thompson SHORT TERM...Thompson LONG TERM...IAA AVIATION...IAA FIRE WEATHER...Thompson HYDROLOGY...Thompson is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.