580
FXUS64 KAMA 181126
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
626 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Dry and warm weather continues to be the theme this weekend for
the Panhandles thanks mostly to an upper-level ridge that
continues to build over the top of us. For today, a weak lee-side
low is expected to slide down the southern Rockies, which will
result in light northerly winds for majority of the afternoon.
However, this shift in the low may also invite a couple of high
based thunderstorms to our far north as they develop off the Front
Range and move east. Regardless, impacts from any storms will
likely be minimal as most model do not have much in the way of
CAPE and wind shear present for the day. Rather, the bigger focus
for this weekend will continue to be on the temperatures and how
much they will heat up. For today, afternoon high temperatures are
likely to be in the low 90s for the majority of the combined
Panhandles, while the lack of wind will allow places like the Palo
Duro Canyon to nearly reach triple digits. Meanwhile Sunday, will
see this heat further amplified thanks to another surface low
setting up good southwesterly flow over the Panhandles. Expect
temperatures to rise into the mid to upper 90s for most locations
with decent chances of our hotter locations reaching that 100
degree mark.

Scoleri

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Monday is still expected to be a hot day for the panhandles as the
southern plains will still be under the influence of a ridge.
Southerly gusty winds will help to bring in warmer air that will
aid these hot temperatures. This will see the highs in the 90s to
lows 100s across the panhandles. This will change come Tuesday as
a trough ejects out of the desert southwest across the plains.
This will see the highs fall to the 80s and 90s for the
panhandles. A little moisture should move across the panhandles
during this time but it looks to be sufficient enough to only
cause some cloud cover. If enough moisture sneaks its way into the
panhandles a rain showers or thunderstorms could then occur. Winds
will shift to become more SW to WSW on Tuesday as the trough
pushes through. A cold front associated with this system should
pass across the panhandles late on Tuesday to early on Wednesday.
The passage of the front will shift the winds rapidly to the
north. This front looks to be dry so no active weather is
expected to occur during its passage. Even the cooler air behind
the front doesn`t look to be promising with roughly a five degree
drop in the highs. This may allow a few spots to dip to the upper
70s for highs otherwise it will be in the 80s across the
panhandles. Wednesday through Friday the pattern looks to become
broadly zonal with weak ridging across the southern plains. This
should serve to warm the panhandles back to the 80s and 90s during
this time. Winds are likely to shift to a southerly direction
under this pattern being weakly gusty during the day and weak at
night. Some return moisture may push up from the gulf during the
late work week but this is more likely to be to the east of the
panhandles in OK proper. If a sufficient amount of moisture grazed
the eastern panhandles then rain showers and thunderstorms may
occur however unlikely.

SH

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Relatively light surfaces winds that will shift over the course
of the day in response to a weak surface low passing through.
There is a low chance of thunderstorms brushing the far northern
portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle this afternoon. However, no
impacts are currently expected for KGUY. Otherwise, expect VFR
conditions to hold for the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                93  59  97  58 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  93  62  97  59 /  10  10  20  10
Boise City OK              88  53  92  54 /   0  10  10   0
Borger TX                  96  63 102  60 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              95  58  99  55 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  93  57  97  54 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               92  60  96  61 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 90  53  93  49 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  91  58  96  54 /   0  10  10   0
Hereford TX                95  58  98  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                94  64  96  61 /  10  10  10  10
Pampa TX                   92  62  96  60 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                93  62  96  62 /   0   0  10  10
Wellington TX              94  63  97  64 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...11