426
FXUS64 KAMA 240643
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
143 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New KEY MESSAGES, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

- Severe weather today and tomorrow, most likely in the south and
  eastern Panhandles.

- Daily chances of thunderstorms Monday through at least Thursday
  with slightly below average temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Yesterday ended up pretty quiet.  Lift was too late and we didn`t
clear out early enough.  Moisture was limited, despite dynamics
aloft being pretty primed.  Current dryline is set up in the eastern
Panhandles and we expect a surface low to track across the northern
to central Panhandles overnight tonight and into the early afternoon
tomorrow.  By then it looks to have settled somewhere in the
southeast Panhandle.  Cooler air and northerly flow is expected to
take place for much of the Panhandles north of I-40.  The warm and
moist sector is anticipated to be along and south of I-40, and
likely east of I-27.  Best window of opportunity for a storm looks
to be in the 7-10 pm time frame.  It is possible that the low is far
enough south that it is more in the Childress area and that our area
yet again could miss out on storms, but still feel at least that a
30% chance is in play for a storm to be in the southeast.  Overall,
we have good shear and instability and low level turning that if a
storm manages to develop, it would likely be severe and all hazards
are certainly in play.  Given the ample CAPE 2500-4000 J/kg
available to work with, max hail size could certainly range from
Golf ball to Baseball.  Now the northern Panhandle Saturday night
will be another story.  Overall, the north may be under low clouds
and northerly winds all day.  In fact the highs are still highly up
for debate, as NBM continues to give highs around 80, and this just
seems way out there, as northerly winds and low level moisture is
likely to hold in place most of the day.  There`s a small window in
the 2-4pm when we might break out before the low clouds come right
back in, and it just seems unlikely that we pass the low 70s as
highs for the Oklahoma Panhandles.  If the low clouds persist, the
more likely scenario would be mid 60s for the highs.  Additionally,
storms that fire off in the southeast could send an outflow to the
northwest and collide with a deepening saturated low level, that may
reach the top of the inversion, and at that point with the lift
from the outflow, there`s a chance for a midnight to 2am elevated
storm to pop up, which will likely be just a hail threat, but would
still have enough instability and shear to be severe.

Sunday, this continued low level moisture is expected to hold all
day in the north and highs could be well below normal.  NBM only has
mid 60s to lower 70s for the Oklahoma Panhandle.   A strong
temperature gradient is expected as well around the central
Panhandles as that is where the stationary front is looking to set
up, now this could shift a bit further south of I-40.  This will be
the area to watch for the severe threat on Sunday, as areas south of
the boundary will be rich in moisture and should have ample heating
to reach the convective temperatures.  Additionally, we have an
upper level trough to the southwest providing enhanced lift in the
mid levels, with a potential shortwave to coincide with peak
heating.  CAMs are certainly supporting multiple supercells along
the stationary boundary and expanding into a cluster later in the
evening.  ML CAPE values in the warm sector range from 3000-4500
J/kg, and with ample shear to support supercells, these storm will
be capable of all hazards and certainly could support baseball to
softball sized hail.  Further north will remain fairly stable and
under a very strong cap, therefore most likely cool and damp with
low clouds and drizzle being the expectation.  Of course if this
stationary boundary sets up further north, that changes all of that,
but it seems more likely that the boundary will be further south.
Major caveat to all of this, is the daily convection that occurs to
the north in KS and east in OK.  These outflow boundaries and storms
can play havoc with the overall setup, and that can be from shifting
the stationary boundary to stabilizing an area in the warm sector so
that it`s too capped to convect the next day.  So there`s a lot of
moving parts that can signficantly modify the level of the severe
risk and the locations of the severe risk.

Weber

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Monday through Thursday we will continue the chances at showers and
storms on a daily basis, severe weather is certainly on the table
each day.  PWAT`s gradually work their way up each day through
Thursday, overall the eastern Panhandles could see rain amounts in
the 1.50-2.50" range and areas to the west look to be in the 0.25-
1.50" range.  For the most part temperatures look to be below
normal, at least through Wednesday, with temperatures getting closer
to normal on Thursday and Friday.  Friday still could have showers
and storms, but it`s at this point that models diverge and suggest
that we could be transitioning to a drier solution, but the
potential for showers and storms is certainly on the table for
Friday, if the pattern persists.

Weber

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT Sat May 24 2025

VFR conditions for now. But MVFR/IFR conditions will be possible
at KGUY and KDHT. At KDHT low clouds may start to move in from
the 12-15z time frame. We may manage to break out of the low deck
with afternoon heating, but after 1z the low clouds could again
return for the remainder of the TAF period. For KGUY, confidence
is not as high that we`ll even break out of the low clouds, and
by 04z we may even drop down to IFR. Not going to rule out the
need to DZ/FG to the TAFs in further updates. Best chance for a
thunderstorm will be at KAMA from 21-00z but only PROB30 for now.
Winds generally out of the east to northeast in the 10-15kt range.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                87  59  79  56 /  10  20  30  60
Beaver OK                  75  57  71  52 /  10  40  30  80
Boise City OK              72  52  66  49 /  10  30  30  80
Borger TX                  84  60  79  57 /   0  20  30  70
Boys Ranch TX              87  58  79  55 /   0  20  30  70
Canyon TX                  91  60  81  55 /  10  20  30  60
Clarendon TX               92  62  82  58 /  10  30  40  60
Dalhart TX                 81  54  73  50 /   0  20  20  70
Guymon OK                  74  55  69  50 /  10  30  30  80
Hereford TX                95  59  83  55 /  10  20  30  50
Lipscomb TX                80  59  75  56 /   0  30  30  80
Pampa TX                   84  60  78  57 /   0  20  30  70
Shamrock TX                92  63  83  59 /  10  30  40  70
Wellington TX              98  63  84  59 /  10  30  40  70

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...89
LONG TERM....89
AVIATION...89