374
FXUS64 KAMA 151111
AFDAMA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
611 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

- Shower and thunderstorm chances persist for the panhandle
  during the next 7 days, peaking Wed-Thu.

- High pressure will likely bring the return of near to above
  average temperatures this weekend into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Get ready to soak in a summer breeze today because winds are
forecast to be sustained out of the southwest at 15-20 mph with
slightly higher gusts at times. These downsloping winds will help
high temperatures warm into the 90s, but will also help keep
humidity at bay as drier air mixes down over most of the Panhandles.
We`ve seen a downward trend in precipitation chances for this
afternoon-evening, and investigation of latest hi-res CAMs and other
model data only further reinforces this trend (<10% POPs).
Unfavorable synoptic positioning and some dry air mixing will make
it very difficult for convection to survive the trip off the higher
terrain, but the northwest Panhandles would be the favored area if
any storms can survive.

Tomorrow, a shortwave trough is progged to swing across the central
Great Plains, generating a complex of storms near the sand hills
of Nebraska. CAMs show this system propagating an outflow boundary
southward towards the Panhandles, which would act as a focus for
new convective potential favoring the northern Panhandles in the
evening- overnight hours. Lack of wind shear is still a limiting
factor against a more organized severe threat, but moisture and
instability will be in ample supply (PWATs >1.5" & MLCAPE ~2000
J/kg). Gusty winds would be the main threat based on inverted V
signatures and decent DCAPE values >1000 J/kg, but some hail can`t
entirely be ruled out as well.

Harrel

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A minor perturbation aloft may help spur up another round of showers
and storms Thursday, in conjunction with the potential stalled
outflow boundary. Again, very high moisture content and moderate
instability should exist along and behind the boundary, but meager
shear values <20 kts suggests organized severe storms aren`t very
likely. If training storms occur between Wed & Thu night, localized
higher rainfall totals >1" may pose at least some flooding threat.
Overall precip chances are still 40-70%, peaking across the northern
Panhandles, with lowest chances across the southeast. If nothing
else, increased cloud cover will keep highs on the cooler side in
the mid 80s to low 90s.

The suite of latest ensemble guidance foreshadows us probably not
mentioning anything being "cooler" for some time, as a ridge of high
pressure grows over the southern Plains into next week. By the
weekend and into Monday, probabilistic data sets paint low to medium
chances for high temperatures to reach or exceed 100 across at
least the eastern Panhandles. Recent runs of the deterministic
GFS go so far as placing temperatures of 100-105 across a vast
majority of the Panhandles Monday afternoon. While this is on the
higher end of guidance, it does support and illustrate the strong
warming trend favored by the strengthening ridge over the region.
Those who don`t reach the century mark have high chances for
temperatures in the mid to upper 90s each day. Daytime heating and
any "ridge rider" disturbances may still take advantage of any
lingering moisture, continuing to support daily precip chances of
~10-20% Fri-Mon.

Harrel

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 442 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period. Expect breezy
south winds around 15 to 20 kts, especially between 16Z and 00Z
Wed.

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...38
LONG TERM....38
AVIATION...36