Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
FXUS63 KAPX 171627

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
1227 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Issued at 1014 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Morning composite analysis reveals northern Michigan is sitting
right on the fringe of a deep trough axis/cold air sitting through
eastern Canada/New England. "Backdoor" cold front is draped from
Manitoba and western Ontario down to just north of the Soo and has
been creeping into the region over the last several hours.
But...given the very dry airmass in place you wouldn`t know it
other than a wind shift and much colder temperatures in Ontario.
One small patch of stratus did develop over the Soo area toward
morning that is now thinning and drifting down through the EUP.
There is also a little bit of lake banding on Lake Huron that
drifted into NE lower Michigan earlier in the morning.

Shallow boundary/"backdoor" cold front just edges into/stalls
across the far northeast part of the region today with little
fanfare. There is a batch of mid level cloud cover NW of Lake
Superior along the thermal gradient and ahead of a weak surface
low crossing central Manitoba into western Ontario. Sct-Bkn cloud
cover is still on track to slide down through the northeast part
of the CWA later this afternoon and this evening followed by the
surface low that slides through the region later tonight. But
other than some increase in cloud cover later in the day...quiet
weather will be the rule. And after the chilly start to the
day...temps will warm into the upper 30s to the middle 40s.


.NEAR TERM...(Today through Tonight)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High impact weather potential: None.

Pattern synopsis and forecast:

Northern Michigan was on the southerly end of upper troughing over
New England, south of a moisture-starved frontal boundary draped
from Maine to central Ontario. This front was pressing SW as a back
door cold front, as shortwave energy dives down the backside of the
upper troughing. Split flow was out to our south and west, where the
srn stream branch of the upper jet was more active, producing the
closest weather to nrn Michigan. A shortwave and low pressure system
was working through the mid Mississippi valley, and resulting in a
wintry mix across Illinois. The nrn edge of the system`s cloud
shield was near Manistee, but other than that, skies were clear for
us with temperatures tanking into the teens over much of the region.

We have entered into the long period of quiet weather for nrn
Michigan. Hardly anything changes in the upper levels today through
tonight. We remain on the srn fringe of the nrn jet stream, buried
within some pretty dry air and high pressure. Skies will be clear
through the morning, despite the aforementioned frontal zone sliding
into our neck of the woods this morning. There will be some increase
in mid and upper level clouds later today and into this evening, as
another shortwave dives down the backside of the New England upper
troughing. A weak area of low pressure develops on this frontal zone
in SW Ontario this afternoon, which then crosses the nrn Great Lakes
tonight. The front returns north of us as a warm front, but dives
back into the region late tonight with the departure of the wave
and low pressure.  Again, the air mass is pretty dry, with minimal
moisture associated with the low pressure. Precipitation definitely
out of the question, but the clouds are likely later today, as they
are already out there seen pushing through srn Manitoba. One other
thing to watch for, although not impactful, will be the shallow
colder air that slides in behind the front this morning, and again
late tonight. 925mb temperatures get to -6C, just on the verge of
enough overlake instability for moisture flux and the need for
looking at lake clouds in NW/N flow.

Highs today warming up very nicely in drier atmosphere, into the mid
30s in eastern upper, to the low to mid 40s along and south of M-72.
Lows tonight needed significant adjustment, as guidance is poor in
good radiational cooling scenarios. Single digits in the typically
colder locales, with most areas into the teens.


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Continued quiet weather...

High Impact Weather Potential...None

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Mid-level ridging over the Upper
Mississippi Valley on Sunday will flatten out by Monday as a closed
low ejects eastward from the Rockies. A weak, moisture-starved cold
front will drop south through northern Michigan Sunday morning, but
with little effect on daytime temperatures. Canadian high pressure
and a dry airmass will build in from the north behind the front on

Primary Forecast Concerns...No significant forecast concerns as a
stretch of benign weather continues for northern Michigan. A rather
dry airmass will promote precipitation-free conditions, though it
appears there will be a little more in the way of cloud cover Sunday
and Monday. Sunday`s cold front will have some decaying cloud cover
associated with it, and the cold air advection aloft developing in
its wake will lead to steep low level lapse rates and some lake
induced instability. Maybe some scattered stratocu as a result, but
not expecting more than perhaps partly cloudy skies at times
downwind of the lakes in the developing northeasterly flow. Thanks
to the front, there will be quite a spread in high temperatures
Sunday, ranging from about 30 near Paradise to near 50 at Gladwin.
Monday will be a tad cooler with highs in the mid 20s north to
mid/upper 30s south.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Friday)
Issued at 300 AM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Not much sensible weather to talk about in the extended portion of
the forecast. Another strong surface high accompanied by a dry
airmass will sit over Ontario and Quebec through the middle of the
week. Upper low/shortwave and inverted surface trough over the
Northern Plains on Tuesday will weaken as they encounter the dry
airmass and strong surface high. All this will spell continued dry
and slightly cooler than normal conditions for northern Michigan.
Rising heights towards the end of the week will correspond to a


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1226 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

Solid VFR weather today and tonight with sustained winds largely
under 10 knots. There will be an increase of mid cloud cover later
in the afternoon through this evening as batch of cloud cover
moving across Lake Superior slips SE through the region.

Meanwhile...weak "backdoor" cold front slides into the region
late overnight along with an area of low pressure that slides down
through northern lower Michigan early Sunday morning. Shallow
cool airmass may touch off some sct-bkn MVFR stratus that spreads
into the region Sunday morning...with the main impacts at PLN and




AVIATION...BA is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.