Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI

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FXUS63 KAPX 180507

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gaylord MI
107 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

.NEAR TERM...(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Some cloud cover...otherwise quiet...

High Impact Weather Potential...none.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...Afternoon composite analysis reveals
northern Michigan remains sandwiched between deep troughing/cold
air across Ontario/New England and warmer air/ridging through the
central CONUS. Detached short wave/surface low is traversing the
Ohio Valley but will remain away from us. Surface cold front
stretches from surface low pressure in Manitoba and western
Ontario down across eastern upper MI and Lake Huron. Although
given the very dry airmass in place you wouldn`t know it other
than a wind shift and much colder temperatures heading northward
into Ontario. There is a batch of mid cloud cover (cigs around 10K
feet) slipping southeastward along the boundary across western
Ontario and Lake Superior...that will be arriving in a few hours.

Primary Forecast trends and low temps.

Aforementioned shallow boundary/"backdoor" cold front expected to
stall and perhaps nudge back northward a bit tonight as the
upstream surface low slides down through the northeast part of the
CWA through Sunday morning...only to return once again on Sunday
as the low departs to the SE. Not expecting much with this system
given weak forcing and dry antecedent conditions across the region.
But we will see this intial batch of mid cloud cover slide
through late this afternoon and evening...and potentially some
shallow SCT-BKN stratus development with the front Sunday as the
low departs to the SE.

Lows tonight are a bit tricky. Was initially inclined to cut and
paste last nights lows into tonight. But...aforementioned cloud
cover issues and slightly stronger low level winds makes that
problematic and statistical guidance sources certainly are running
warmer with tonights lows as compared to last nights. That said I
still think temperatures in some of the interior cold spots could
tank if we see a prolonged clear period. So...perhaps not as cold
as last night...but I do plan on undercutting guidance temps a


.SHORT TERM...(Sunday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Dry through the Weekend...

High Impact Weather Potential...None.

Pattern Synopsis/Forecast...High pressure begins to build in north
of the backdoor cold front and wedges the front south and west into
the forecast area by Monday morning. Still continues to be a fairly
dry air mass, with the upstream RH at 850 mb around 17% behind the
front. With the front pushing south, out of Hudson Bay, the air mass
will continue to be drier with a little below normal temperatures.
The high pressure remains near James Bay and the Upper Great Lakes
through Tuesday.

Primary Forecast concerns...As we begin the fire weather season
early this week, am a bit concerned with the way that the blended
models are handling the temperatures/dewpoints/RH. With today`s RH
around 25% Think that this weekend and possibly a good portion of
this week will be extremely dry atmosphere-wise. Also, the pressure
gradient on the south side of the sfc high on Monday and possibly
Tuesday is a bit tight. Tight enough that I`m surprised that the
gusts aren`t higher. This is something to watch for. We could see
some elevated fire conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Saturday)
Issued at 339 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

...Temperatures Normal, Probably Dry Until Saturday...

Extended (Tuesday night through Saturday)...There will be a battle
this week between sunshine trying to warm the shallow, cold air that
will push into the region. It will remain dry, weather-wise, through
the work weak as the sfc high pressure lingers over the region,
which will allow the sunshine to warm the cool, sfc air a bit. high
temperatures through Friday moderate to normal, only for a sfc low
to cut south of the region and pull cooler air back south out of
Ontario. Again, it remains rather dry, especially the ECMWF, with a
Hudson Bay high reforming and forcing the low farther south. The GFS
has the precipitation cutting through our southern and western
counties on Saturday with the low south of the forecast area.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 106 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018

Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Area
of AC just north of the area continues to move SE overnight. A weak
low pressure area will move from N of Lk Superior through NE lower
MI tomorrow. In its wake, shallow cold advection could bring some
sct-bkn MVFR stratus over northern parts of the forecast area (KAPN
and KPLN) on Sunday. Low clouds should for the most part mix out
during the afternoon. Winds will remain generally light.




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