891
FXUS62 KCAE 051101
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
701 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms have moved into the area and will
continue through early next week with showers and thunderstorms
possible each day. Dry conditions should prevail for midweek,
with a return of showers and storms possible again by Friday.
Expect well above normal temperatures each day.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Convection will move out of the forecast area later this
morning as the associated upper level shortwave shifts east.
With limited instability we expect mostly showers with just
isolated thunderstorms. The weak instability and weak shear will
preclude severe weather. Rain rates should not be favorable for
flooding except in urban and flood prone areas.

Deep moisture will remain over the forecast area with PWAT
values around 1.5". During the late morning and mid- day we
should see a reprieve in convective activity with NVA over the
region. However, a weaker shortwave is expected to move over the
forecast area during the afternoon. This should support
scattered shower and thunderstorms. Coverage should be lower
than the previous day given the weaker upper support. There may
be some enhanced coverage in the Pee Dee and closer to I-95
where a sea breeze boundary could provide additional
convergence. The threat of severe weather is limited today given
weak shear, weak lapse rates, and weak DCAPE values.
Temperatures are expected to be near average once again during
the day, but relatively warm overnight. Convection will diminish
during the evening hours given the lack of continued support.
Lingering low level moisture tonight could once again lead to
low stratus and patchy fog.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop
across the area on Monday as another shortwave moves through.
Some isolated activity will be possible early in the day, but
stronger activity should occur during the afternoon. Severe
threat remains rather low, but periods of heavy rainfall and
some gusty winds will still be possible. Rain coverage will
diminish somewhat overnight Monday with the loss of heating and
due to the shortwave pushing east. Temperatures will reach the
low to mid 80s through the day, then drop to the mid 60s Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Respite from the rain may be brief on Tuesday as weak ridging
aloft quickly moves east ahead of the next stronger shortwave.
Activity may be more across the east where the sea-breeze could
enhance convergence. This shortwave moves through Tuesday night,
then a slightly longer period of dry conditions should occur
from Wednesday into Thursday morning as another weak ridge
spreads across the area. Thursday afternoon into Friday could
become active again ahead of both a series of upper shortwaves
moving through, and a surface cold front pushing southeastward
towards the region. Better moisture should be across the area,
along with stronger instability and increased shear. Can not
rule out the potential for stronger storm development Thursday
afternoon/evening. Additional activity possible on Friday, but
less instability to work with. Cold front moves through by
Saturday, and this should lead to a return of dry conditions
through the weekend. Temperatures will generally remain well
above normal through mid-week with highs in the lower 90s.
Slightly cooler Thursday and Friday with increase in clouds,
then a more significant cooldown by the weekend behind the cold
front, with highs mainly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Periods of restrictions likely for much of the TAF period.
Convective activity should be lower today than the previous day.

Early this morning: Lingering showers will continue to cause
periodic visibility restrictions at CAE, CUB, and OGB for the
next few hours. As the showers shift east, ceilings should lower
across the region. This will keep MVFR/IFR restrictions in
place through mid-morning. Light winds will generally be out of
the south but may be variable at times today.

Ceilings restrictions are expected to lift by 18Z. Convective
activity today should be more scattered than the previous day,
so confidence in restrictions from rainfall is lower. Any
convection will diminish this evening, but with low level
moisture remaining high there will likely be another round of
low stratus and patchy fog tonight.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Fog and stratus likely again early
Monday. Widespread fog/stratus restrictions become less likely
on Tuesday with drier air moving in through mid-week. Afternoon
convection possible each day in the extended.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$