642
FXUS62 KMHX 061126
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
726 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing
continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days,
but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before
an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather
back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the
beginning of next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 730 AM Mon...High pressure will continue to ridge in to
the area from offshore with weak surface troughing across the
Carolina Piedmont. A weak shortwave will cross through the
region today, and help support the development of scattered to
at times widespread showers and thunderstorms today.

Morning coastal convection will diminish before noon and then
expect convective coverage to focus along a strengthening sea
breeze from late morning onward, advancing inland through the
afternoon. Generally 30-50% chances of rain expected through mid
afternoon with this activity. Thereafter, more widespread rain
and thunderstorms (60-70%) will likely develop over the coastal
plain as sea breeze activity meets semi organized convection
moving in from central NC. A few of these cells could pose a
threat for some stronger winds before convection begins to
weaken around sunset. Temperatures will be mostly in the upper
70s to low 80s with partly to mostly cloudy skies, but a few
locations could get into the mid 80s before clouds and
convective coverage increases this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
As of 730 AM Mon...Any remaining convection will continue to
decay this evening, with just some widely scattered activity
expected overnight inland. Along the coast and offshore,
nocturnal convection will ramp up again and scattered shower and
thunderstorms are possible here by early tomorrow morning.
Temperatures will be mild with lows mostly in the mid to upper
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a
weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly
flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only
isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an
increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system
will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing
unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible
over the weekend.

Tuesday... A weak mid level trough will be making its way across the
Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. This will bring height falls to ENC Tue
afternoon as well as a weak surface trough and our next threat at
some unsettled weather. Ample moisture will be in place across the
area with widespread PWAT`s over 1.0". As a result latest global and
Hi-Res guidance shows SBCAPE values building to around 1000-2000
J/kg Tue afternoon with HREF probabilities of 1500+ J/kg of
SBCAPE around 50-80% across much of the region. In addition to
this 0-6 km bulk shear will also be increasing as well Tue
afternoon to around 25-35 kts. While shear and mid level lapse
rates won`t be very impressive, the weak forcing and strong
instability should be more than enough to promote scattered
shower and thunderstorm activity with a few isolated
thunderstorms becoming strong to potentially severe in nature.
Biggest threat within the strongest storms would be damaging
wind gusts and some isolated small hail. Highs on Tue get into
the mid to upper 80s inland and upper 70s along the OBX with
lows getting down into the 60s.

Wednesday... A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across
the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At
the surface SW`rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will
result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s
along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and
thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound
breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in
place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday
current thinking is that storms won`t be very organized in
nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming
days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest
day out of the week so far.

Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again
redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the
Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for
afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and
humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an
incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur
Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and
severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a
diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase
PoP`s to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP`s on Friday
to SChc to Chc.

Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values
>1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level
lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more
widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon
and evening.

Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the
area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on
Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an
isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted
well offshore.

The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly
dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable
airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 730 AM Mon...A mix of IFR and MVFR ceilings this morning
will improve over the next couple of hours to VFR levels.
Thereafter expect scattered to at times widespread convection to
develop first along the sea breeze and then farther inland later
this afternoon, which could lead to moments of sub-VFR
conditions at the terminals.

A similar regime will remain tonight with moist SW flow present,
and low level stratus (mostly at MVFR levels) is again expected
to form. The best chances for this will be along the coastal
plain, but there is at least some risk of MVFR ceilings
developing closer to US 17.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most
part through mid-week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each
aftn/evening that impacts the area with the highest threat for
thunderstorm activity occuring on Tue. Another round of sub VFR
conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold
front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and
thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at
some point on Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Mon...Outside of convection decent boating
conditions are expected through tonight. Winds will be S/SSW at
10-15 kts through this afternoon, and then increase in response
to the building thermal gradient to become SW 15-20 kts tonight
through early tomorrow morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft today, and
increase to 3-5 ft early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to
deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. We start the
period off with 15-20 kt SW`rly winds and 3-5 ft seas across our
waters. Given the strong thermal gradient we may briefly flirt
with SCA conditions across our coastal waters Tue afternoon and
evening as ocnl gusts up to 25 kts will not be out of the
question. However confidence is not high enough to issue SCA`s
just yet and will let the day shift take another look to see how
things have trended. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW`rly winds will
continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along
the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on
Thursday SW`rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with
gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across
our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming
more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7
ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...SGK
SHORT TERM...SGK
LONG TERM...RCF
AVIATION...SGK/RCF
MARINE...SGK/RCF