756
FXUS63 KPAH 071700
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
1200 PM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unsettled pattern persists through the week with daily rain
  and storm chances.

- Cooler temperatures much of this week with highs in the mid to
  upper 80s. Temperatures warming back the lower 90s on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 235 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

Weak troughing currently sits over the region this morning with
broad lift keeping a few mid to high level clouds streaming
across. The clouds and weak southwest wind will likely keep fog
from developing. A stalled front was noted to our north, from
Kansas eastward into central Illinois and northern Indiana. Weak
cyclonic flow will remain in place today with a slight increase
in wind fields aloft later this afternoon and evening. Weak
synoptic support from the upper level shortwave traversing the
region will coincide with a destabilizing moist boundary layer,
as a surface front noses in from the north. This will promote
scattered convection across the area, with coverage peaking
during the afternoon. Temperatures will be slightly cooler,
with highs in the upper 80s. Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s
will still result in heat indices in the mid to upper 90s.

The active weather pattern will continue the rest of this week.
On Tuesday, we see another shortwave that amplifies as it
pushes into the region. We will see some jet forcing by the
afternoon hours that will provide increasing deep layer forcing
and increased shear. A few strong to possibly severe storms are
possible Tuesday afternoon and evening with a Day 2 marginal
risk over most of the region. Beyond Tuesday, weak upper
troughing will remain anchored over the eastern CONUS,
supporting broad cyclonic flow aloft and allowing several low-
amplitude shortwaves to traverse the region. Persistent
southwest low level flow will keep a moist airmass in place for
daily chances of showers and storms. The pattern becomes a bit
more diffuse into the weekend with a weak flow pattern but
transient vort maxima may provide brief periods of enhanced lift
and the potential for daily showers/storms will continue.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1159 AM CDT Mon Jul 7 2025

A broken line of scattered thunderstorms has developed along a
cold front pushing south across the region. Confidence remains
the highest in KEVV/KOWB experiencing the greatest coverage,
but storms are also possible at KCGI/KPAH through this evening.
The main concern will be torrential downpours, lightning, and
downburst. Vsby and cig reductions will also be probable, with
IFR/MVFR conditions. Winds will be west between 5-7 kts ahead
of the front.

Winds quickly turn calm tonight with SCT-BKN high level clouds.
Some patchy fog is possible early Tuesday morning with MVFR to
perhaps IFR conditions progged. There is low confidence in
another complex of thundershowers developing and moving across
western Kentucky towards daybreak that would be in the vicinity
of KPAH/KOWB. Otherwise, Tuesday morning will be dry with light
south winds around 5 kts as a warm front lifts back north.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AD
AVIATION...DW