Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Paducah, KY

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FXUS63 KPAH 221854
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
154 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Spotty showers will produce light rain or sprinkles of it,
  especially over the lower Ohio River Valley, until the low
  pressure system responsible shifts to the east tonight.

- Saturday will be brisk/cool with gusty north winds 15 to 30
  mph at times. Heightened fire danger Saturday afternoon is
  expected in the southeast MO Ozarks, due to the winds and
  relative humidity dropping to 25-30%.

- Our next significant storm system arrives early next week.
  Strong gradient winds just shy of Advisory thresholds will
  precede its approach Monday, with the best chance for storms
  and heavy rains with its passage Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

The upper low can be seen clearly swirling over the lower
Mississippi River valley at this writing. Its counter-clockwise
flow spirals some dense cloudiness to our southern doorstep,
while also facilitating more scattered and nuanced shower
activity overtop the FA/specifically in the vicinity of the
lower Ohio River valley. There will be little change in this
scenario until the models translate the broader phased long wave
trof of low pressure far enough to our east to entrain some
drier air into the region on the backside, which will basically
begin after 06Z tonight. Expect to see pops dwindle west-to-
east as this occurs with the low`s movement same, and be all
but gone in our east by 12Z Saturday.

Onsetting about that time and esp thereafter will be gusty north
winds coming in on that backside of the departing low and front
side of incoming high pressure. The strong gradient will
produce gusts upwards to around 30 mph at times, which combined
with the chilly air temps that will struggle their way toward
50F, it`ll be a raw and blustery day, even as sunshine increases
over the course of the day. Per collaboration, may end up
shaving a degree or two off NBM highs.

With the high shifting east to begin the new week, we`re in the
warm sector by Monday. The environment looks even less favorable
for strong thunder now than it did yesterday, when there were
several negative factors to note. SPC responded with a notable
southward shift to its 15%, now south of Memphis. The lack of
instability and time of frontal passage remain key negating
factors which help shift us to a gradient wind/locally heavy
rainfall main hazard expectation, to accompany scattered
thunder chances as the system makes its approach (Monday) and
passage (Monday night-Tuesday).

Winds...the NAEFS E-SAT has been hitting hard 2-10 year Return
Intervals on the winds, and the Grand Ensemble continues to
produce a majority of members pushing 40 mph gusts Monday. As a
result, we`ll continue to hit that hard in our products.

Rainfall...the MRGNL outlook for 1-2" broad swath average areal
qpf still looks a good bet, and localized higher totals may
contribute to some minor water issues as a hazard. This has too
been a sustained message, so we`ll keep that in the product
advertisements as well.

High pressure moves in after this system`s passage and prevails
across the bulk of the mid week with its seasonally cool
airmass. Another warmup ensues as it shifts to the east by
week`s end.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 145 PM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Primarily mid level VFR bases yield CIGS thru the first half of
the forecast package, before backside of the low infiltration of
lower, MVFR based CIGS, esp after midnight tonight. VCSH/spotty
showers will be possible. As the low shifts east and the lower
clouds approach, the gradient picks up strong northerlies with
gusts that will last from late tonight into/thru the planning
phase hours of the forecast tmrw.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$


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