203
FXUS64 KSJT 180804
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
304 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 658 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Isolated thunderstorms have developed across northern Kerr and
northern Edwards County. These storms have are drifting northeast
and are moving into southeast Kimble County. This activity may
move into portions of Mason County over the next hour or so, so
have expanded slight chance PoPs northward slightly. These storms
will have the potential of producing hail and gusty winds, with
some of this activity approaching severe criteria. Most of this
activity should begin to weaken shortly after sunset.

Daniels

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 117 PM CDT Fri May 17 2024

Temperatures this afternoon are around 10 to 15 degrees warmer than
yesterday afternoon north of I-10, thanks to the clear skies and
increased sunshine. We could see a few isolated storms late this
afternoon and evening as the upper level short wave moves east over
our area. Any thunderstorms that develop will likely be in our
southern counties, near I-10, with a smaller chance of storms
further north. It is May in Texas, so we can`t completely rule out
severe thunderstorms, but the chance for severe weather is lower
today compared to yesterday, and most of the activity (if any
develops) is expected to remain below severe thresholds. Winds will
become light and start to switch back to the south this evening and
overnight as a high pressure builds at the surface to our southeast.
Temperatures tomorrow will continue to increase as an upper level
ridge begins to build over the area. Highs will be almost 10 degrees
above normal, with values approaching 100 in some areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 304 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

We will get a taste of summer heat from Sunday through Tuesday in
west central Texas. An upper level ridge will establish itself
over the area by Sunday. And although the ridge will break down by
Tuesday as a large trough develops over the western CONUS, and
moves toward the central U. S., the low level thermal ridge will
remain strong through Tuesday. The dryline will also move east
through much of the area Tuesday afternoon aiding in heating via
westerly downslope drying/heating. Highs from Sunday through
Tuesday will be in the mid 90s to around 103 degrees, with lows in
the upper 60s to mid 70s.

On Wednesday, a cold front is expected to move into the area.
This will provide a chance for showers and thunderstorms from
Wednesday afternoon into Thursday, as well as some relief from the
hot temperatures. Highs Wednesday and Thursday should cool off
into the 80s to mid 90s for the most part. Temperatures will warm
back up for Friday, although we won`t be as hot as earlier in the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will remain in place for the next 24 hours. Expect
light winds throughout the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     95  69  96  72 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 100  70 101  71 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   100  70 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood   92  68  92  68 /   0   0   0   0
Sweetwater  97  70  98  72 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona       97  70  98  69 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       93  68  94  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AP
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...41