094
FXUS64 KSJT 121815
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
115 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 319 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Short range models indicate scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms developing towards sunrise, as an upper low over
Colorado moves east into Kansas this evening, bringing lift to
the region.

There is the potential for an isolated severe thunderstorm today
with 0-6km bulk shears of 30-40KTS. GFS MUCAPES also increase
from 500-1500 J/KG this morning to 2500-3000 J/KG along/east of of
Sonora to San Angelo to Sweetwater to Sweetwater this afternoon,
so even as lift weakens there will certainly more than enough
instability for a severe thunderstorm this afternoon. Most of West
Central Texas is an a marginal risk of severe storms today.

Some storms could also produce locally heavy rainfall/flooding
with precipital water values of 1.1 to 1.5 inches. Main area of
concern is Coleman and Brown counties, as those counties received
very heavy rainfall last week. Faster moving storms should limit
flood potential however. There is a slight risk of excessive
rainfall along and east of Throckmorton to Baird to Coleman to San
Saba line.

While shower and thunderstorm potential decreases significantly
this evening, an isolated thunderstorm (possibly severe) may be
ongoing for hour or so in extreme eastern counties as it moves
east.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

Monday morning should finally see clear skies as the system that
brought widespread cloud cover will start moving to the east.  Quiet
weather should continue through Tuesday as high pressure fills in at
the surface and high temperatures reach the upper 80s to low 90s.

Our attention turns to the next weather system which looks to impact
west central Texas Wednesday through Thursday.  At the mid-levels a
trough of low pressure will move into the southern Plains on
Wednesday.  Models show strong and moist southerly flow ahead of
this system developing by Wednesday evening with PWATS around 1.5
inches.  This could result in areas of heavy rain and potential
flooding Wednesday night into Thursday.  For now, WPC has
highlighted most of our county warning area with a Slight Risk for
Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday through Wednesday night.  Models
show a cold front moving into the area on Thursday, which
should provide more lift for additional heavy rain.

Skies should clear out for Friday through next weekend as high
pressure will fill in behind the cold front and shortwave ridging
will build in.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

IFR/MVFR cigs are impacting all terminals this afternoon. Some
improvement to VFR is possible later this afternoon before another
potential round of MVFR/IFR ceilings tonight. Patchy fog or mist
will also continue to impact the terminals through the morning
hours on Monday. Finally, a few thunderstorms may develop near
KSJT in the late afternoon or evening but confidence in coverage
of these storms is too low to include a mention in the TAF.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     63  84  58  89 /  20   0   0   0
San Angelo  61  90  58  95 /  10   0   0   0
Junction    66  93  60  95 /  10  10   0   0
Brownwood   65  85  57  87 /  20  10   0   0
Sweetwater  61  85  59  89 /  10   0   0   0
Ozona       61  90  59  92 /   0   0   0   0
Brady       66  85  59  87 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....SK
AVIATION...42