Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 220758
AFDAKQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
358 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains centered just off the Mid Atlantic coast
through tonight. Low pressure will track from the Gulf Coast
states northeast up along the East Coast late Monday through
midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Latest sfc analysis shows ~1030 mb high pressure centered just
offshore. The high also extends up into the Great Lakes region.
This will lead to another dry day with partly/mostly cloudy
skies due to increasing moisture within the westerly flow aloft.
High temps range from near 60 along the coast to the upr 60s
inland.

For tonight...the fa remains under the influence of sfc high
pressure positioned just off the coast. Another dry night with
any pcpn staying well SW of the local area. Expect a partly
cloudy sky with low temps ranging through the 40s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

Unsettled wx pattern shaping up this week as low pressure
ejects east from the nations mid section and into the Tenn
valley by late Mon. Models prog a potent srn stream s/w around
the base of the long wave trof Mon night then move it ne to
near the Carolina coast Tue. This keeps the local area on the
cooler side of this system with a general rain expected to
overspread the area.

Keeping most of Mon dry except for some low chc pops after 18Z
across the far swrn zones. Otw, bcmg cloudy with highs in the
60s except for upr 50s at the beaches. Rain overspreads the fa
Mon night except for the lwr Md ern shore where it may take
until 12Z Tue to reach. Pops ramp up to categorical south of
I64, likely-chc pops to the north. Lows Mon night mid 40s nw to
mid 50s se. Tue looks wet with cat/likely pops throughout the
day. Enough lift/Gulf of Mexico moisture noted for some areas of
mdt to heavy rain. Highs Tue upr 50s nw to mid 60s se.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 350 PM EDT Saturday...

After the main area of rain exits the region between 6-12z
Wednesday, we should see enough sunshine for temperatures to warm up
to around 70 Wed PM. 21/12z GFS/ECMWF have showers lingering
throughout the day on Wed, so kept PoPs between 50-60%. GFS even
hints at the possibility of a few thunderstorms Wed afternoon. Most
recent guidance has backed off on the rain Thursday-Friday AM. ECMWF
has the most QPF, and the best chance of rain looks to be over
southern/eastern portions of the CWA. Thus, have lowered PoPs to
below 30%. Highs between 68-74/lows around 50 expected Thu-Fri.

A potent 500mb shortwave is forecast to track over the northeastern
US Friday into the weekend. This will set the stage for another
chance of rain late Friday-Saturday as well as another shot of
below average temperatures. Still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the strength/timing of this storm system. Highs in the 60s
on Saturday with lows dropping into the 40s Sunday AM.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR through the 06Z TAF period. Expect calm winds early this
morning with a shift to the E/SE at 5-10 kt later today. High
clouds increase through the TAF period.

Outlook: A disturbance approaches the region late Monday and
Tuesday bringing steady rain which will result in flight
restrictions. Restrictions will likely last through at least 12z
Wednesday before conditions slowly improve during the day.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 350 AM EDT Sunday...

High pressure centered over New England and Atlantic Canada
will prevail across the region today. A S/SW wind of 5-10kt this
morning will become SE by this aftn. High pressure pushes off the
Srn New England coast Monday and Tuesday as low pressure lifts from
the Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. This will result in
increasing onshore flow. An E wind is expected to reach 10-15kt by
Monday, and then 15-25kt by late Monday night/Tuesday/Tuesday
evening, with the potential for 25-30kt S of the VA/NC border
Tuesday. Onshore flow will result in seas building to 5-9ft
Tuesday/Tuesday night, with 4-6ft waves in the Mouth of the Bay (3-
5ft elsewhere in the Bay). Broad low pressure crosses the region
Wednesday with the wind becoming NW in the wake of the low. A cold
front approaches from the W later in the week.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MAS
NEAR TERM...MAS
SHORT TERM...MAS/MPR
LONG TERM...ERI
AVIATION...AJB/MAS
MARINE...AJZ


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