431
FXUS61 KAKQ 160200
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
1000 PM EDT Tue Jul 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An unsettled weather pattern continues through Wednesday with
scattered thunderstorms and localized flooding possible. Hot and
humid conditions, with a somewhat lower storm coverage is
expected Thursday and Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
As of 945 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Flood Watch has been cancelled all areas with no additional
  heavy rainfall and flash flood potential expected overnight.

- Areal Flood Warnings have been extended into early Wed morning
  for portions of southside VA where widespread road closures
  remain in place due to lingering areas of high water.

The latest WX analysis indicates a broad upper level ridge centered
across the western Atlantic, ridging into the SE CONUS, with an
upper level trough across the northern Plains and central/ern
Canada. At the sfc, a weak pressure pattern is in place, with a
quasi-stationary boundary now mainly N of the local area.
Earlier showers and storms have diminished, with just a few
spotty showers with embedded tstms over the MD eastern shore
(mainly along the coast). Additional heavy rain and flash
flooding is not anticipated, allowing the cancellation of the
Flood Watch. Given a fairly widespread region of lingering high
water and road closures, decided to extend the Areal Flood Watch
across southside VA into early Wed morning. Otherwise, mainly
dry overnight, with perhaps a few additional showers manly along
the coast. Low stratus and patchy fog will probably develop
overnight, but widespread dense fog is unlikely. LOws will
mainly range in the lower to mid 70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled pattern continues into Wednesday with additional
  rounds of showers and storms as the front stalls NW of the
  area.

A similar pattern continues into Wednesday, with a bit more flow
aloft possible during the afternoon and evening as a shortwave in
the SW flow aloft potentially moves across the region. The frontal
boundary currently stalled to our NW will linger near the area and
could be the target of storms, so the areas of highest rain chances
will shift to the northern portions of our forecast area tomorrow.
No real changes in the airmass through Wednesday with PWATs
remaining around 2" so the threat for localized heavy rainfall and
gusty winds persists. Due to the low flash flood guidance across the
area, WPC has placed our area in a Marginal ERO to account for that
and the possibility of scattered coverage. Continued seasonally hot
and humid with highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Warm and muggy
Wednesday night with lows in the 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

- Heat and humidity build late in the week with Heat Advisories
  possible.

Looking ahead to late-week, upper ridging will build northwards into
the area through the weekend. Convective coverage will diminish to
isolated on Thursday. With the decreased cloud cover and storms
combined with the upper ridging, temperatures will be able to climb
into the lower to mid 90s Thursday through Sunday with the northern
part of the area possibly only reaching the upper 80s Friday through
Sunday. The shower coverage will be at its lowest on Thursday, and
with partly cloudy skies forecast in the eastern and dew points
creeping up into the mid-upper 70s, Heat Advisories may be required
for portions of the area. A front will approach the region Friday
and linger just north of the area through the weekend, which could
help initiate showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. With
shower coverage a little higher Friday through Sunday, Heat
Advisories may not be required, though we could see the SE/S portion
of our area reach the 105F+ criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Tuesday...

Intermittent MVFR/IFR CIGS are ongoing across the VA eastern
shore in scattered showers/tstms, with mainly VFR conditions
elsewhere, though with some spotty areas with low CIGs and
patchy fog over interior southern VA away from the main
terminals. While it will become mainly rain-free overnight all
areas, some additional light showers may redevelop near the
coast, with some low stratus and perhaps reduced VSBYS possible
at the terminals early tomorrow morning. Winds outside of
convection will be southwest at 5-10 kts, possibly becoming
light and variable overnight. SW winds average ~10kt during the
day Wed. SCattered showers/tstms again expected Wed aftn/early
evening (though the coverage will tend to be a little lower).

Outlook: Mainly VFR with a lower shower/storm coverage Thu-
Sat (isolated to scattered aftn/early storms possible).

&&

.MARINE...
As of 308 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Messages:

- Benign marine conditions continue through Wednesday night, outside
of local influences from afternoon and evening thunderstorms.

- Small Craft Advisories are likely Wednesday night into Thursday,
mainly across the Chesapeake Bay and lower James River.

Strong high pressure well offshore continues to keep the prevailing
southerly flow across the local waters. Winds are mostly S-SE 5-10
kt with gusts from convection up to 15 kt. The pressure gradient
sharpens some into Wednesday as low pressure tracks well N of the
area through the Great Lakes region. 10-15 kt SW winds are expected
through Wednesday. Beginning Wednesday night, SCA conditions are
likely, as local probabilities now show 80-99% for 18 kt sustained
winds over the Ches. Bay and coastal waters. Although, confidence
for headlines over the coastal waters is lower, as the probability
for sustained 25 kt is only up to 10%. Winds may remain elevated
through the day Thursday and begin to decrease Thursday night. Since
the timeframe is still a few periods out, opting to hold off on
headlines for now. Waves and seas remain benign around 1 ft and 2
ft, respectively. Although likely staying benign through the
forecast period, waves and seas will increase slightly Wednesday
night to 2-3 ft and 3-4 ft, respectively, before decreasing again
Thursday night.

There is a moderate rip current risk for the northern beaches
tomorrow as seas will build throughout the day and the swell will
become more shore normal. A low risk remains for the southern
beaches.

Isolated to scattered afternoon/evening showers/tstms will continue
much of the week. The main hazards with tstms will be brief strong
wind gusts, frequent lighting, and reduced visibility in heavy
rain.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A Flood Warning is in effect for the Appomattox River above
Farmville through early Wed afternoon. Minor flooding is
forecast and is expected to crest just after midnight tonight.


.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB/NB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/NB
LONG TERM...AJZ/NB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...KMC/SW
HYDROLOGY...