Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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FXUS61 KCAR 232228

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
628 PM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

High pressure to our south will slowly drift east into the open
Atlantic through Tuesday. Low pressure will approach from the
southwest Tuesday night into Wednesday then track across our
area Wednesday night into Thursday.


605 PM Update: Little in the way of chgs to fcst elements late
this aftn leading into the ovrngt hrs in the this mild and very
dry air mass (latest dwpt at KCAR is t 4 deg F). Latest trends
of obsvd temps/dwpts from late aftn sfc obs, including obsvd hi
temps, were used to update fcst hrly temps/dwpts into the ovrngt
hrs... but no cause attm to adjust ovrngt low temps attm.
Speaking of ovrngt lows, we xpct them to be much milder due to
stronger winds xpctd abv the BL, spcly later tngt which will
keep more of a Wrly breeze than last ngt, with less of a breeze
ovr most protected vly lctns. Also, fcst temps alf ovrngt as
evident of mid to upper positive single digits deg C will also
not allow sfc temps to fall off much below 30 deg F ovr
protected vlys with ovrngt lows well in the 30s elsewhere.

Orgnl Disc: This afternoon has been the warmest so far this
season, with 50s to low 60s. Dewpoints have plummeted into the
single digits and teens as dry air aloft mixes down. Just a few
high clouds streaming in from the northwest.

Tonight looks cool with lows roughly around freezing, but not as cold
as last night. Some high clouds and a bit more of a pressure gradient
will keep temps from dropping as quickly.

Tuesday looking even warmer than Monday. Highs mainly in the mid to
upper 60s. Along the coast, a touch cooler due to onshore flow
with roughly 60 degrees. Tuesday looks breezier than Monday
also with winds generally 10-15 mph. Manually edited dewpoints
down mainly inland, lowering them below any model guidance,
mainly because of what happened with both Sunday`s and Monday`s
plummeting dewpoints. Still, overall, atmosphere looks a bit
moister Tuesday than Monday, with increasing high and mid-level
clouds late in the day as the next weather system approaches.


High pressure will be drifting away to the east Tuesday night as
some clouds begin to increase ahead of low pressure approaching from
the Southeast. The southwesterly gradient behind the high combined
with some increasing clouds will result in the night being milder
than recent nights with lows only near 40 across the area. Clouds
will continue to increase Wednesday ahead of approaching low
pressure and rain may move in late in the day. The low center will
track into southern New England Wednesday night as rain continues.
This will be a comparatively warm rain with temps in the mid 40s
Wednesday night and mid 50s with continued rain and showers on
Thursday as the low lifts across our northwest. The warm rain and
increasing humidity will likely produce some fog over colder
surfaces Wednesday night and Thursday. Right now it looks the
highest rain amounts will be Downeast where over an inch of rain may


Low pressure will lift away to the northeast Thursday night. Some
showers will be likely over the far north overnight followed by
clearing early Friday morning as a ridge of high pressure quickly
follows. Friday will be sunny to partly cloudy and mild. A secondary
shortwave will then lift into the region late Friday night into
Saturday bringing clouds, then a chance for some showers on
Saturday. Cooler air will circulate into the region Sunday as a
trough moves over the northeast. Downeast will be partly sunny while
the northeast has a mostly cloudy sky. Stratocumulus may then result
in a mostly cloudy day on Monday as the trough axes slides across
the region.


NEAR TERM: VFR through Tuesday. A bit of low level wind shear far
Northern Maine late tonight.

SHORT TERM: VFR conditions are expected Tuesday night.
Conditions will lower to MVFR on Wednesday then IFR in low
clouds, rain and fog late Wednesday through Wednesday night. IFR
conditions are likely Thursday, possibly improving to MVFR
downeast Thursday afternoon. MVFR conditions Thursday night
should improve to VFR early Friday morning. VFR conditions are
expected on Friday.


NEAR TERM: Below small craft tonight. Winds may approach small
craft levels late Tuesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds and seas should be below SCA Tuesday night
into Wednesday. A SCA may be needed for south winds gusting up
to 25 to 30 kt Wednesday night. Winds should drop back below SCA
Thursday into Friday. Warm, humid air moving over the waters
may produce fog Wednesday night through Thursday.


There remains a limited threat of ice jams where ice remains on
the northern rivers. Most of the ice has been flushed out on
the Aroostook, with more extensive areas of ice on the Saint
John and Allagash, but even on these rivers there are wide areas
that are mainly ice free.

The combination of significant snowmelt this week and rainfall
Wednesday and Thursday will cause the larger rivers to rise
significantly this week and could reach bankfull by late in the
week into next weekend. It remains uncertain if there will be
any flooding, but at this time it would appear if there is
flooding that it would be minor, but we will continue to closely
monitor the situation.





Near Term...VJN
Short Term...Bloomer
Long Term...Bloomer
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