Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

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FXUS64 KLCH 201648
AFDLCH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lake Charles LA
1148 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.AVIATION...VFR conditons are expected through the period, however
ceilings will gradually lower to around 5 KFT Saturday morning.
Winds will become more southeast through the period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 620 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

AVIATION...

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the day with FEW/SCT cirrus
at or above FL200 moving into the region from the west. NE winds
of 5-10 knots this morning will gradually shift to the E by late
this afternoon.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 230 AM CDT Fri Apr 20 2018/

DISCUSSION...
Wx map shows 1034mb high pressure building south over the northern
MS valley, providing a secondary surge of cool air over our
region. Satellite imagery shows scattered cirrus streaming from
the west ahead of our next weather maker for the weekend. The cooler
and drier air behind the front will prevail through this
afternoon, with temperatures averaging about 5-10 degrees below
normal.

Still looks like a stormy Saturday night across the region. A
large surface and upper level low will move through the region
Saturday night into Sunday morning. Expect much increased chances
of showers and thunderstorms by Saturday afternoon and evening
with the approach of the system. Most models have consistent
timing for best chances of precipitation late Saturday afternoon
into early Sunday. GFS20 shows most robust in forming widespread
thunderstorms with the northward moving warm front, and along the
surface low, with the NAM12 a little less impressive this run.
Expect fluctuations in where or how much forcing is output with
this type of system, SPC has our region of SE TX/S LA outlined in
marginal risk for severe thunderstorms in the Day 2 outlook for
Saturday into early Sunday morning, mainly highlighting convection
along the warm front Saturday afternoon, and just ahead and along
the surface low.

Lingering wrap around chances of showers expected for late Sunday
morning as the system exits the region. Slightly cooler and drier
air expected for Monday through Tuesday of next week. GFS a bit
quicker than ECMWF for next frontal system and increased chances
of precipitation by Wednesday/Thursday time frame.

DML

MARINE...
Post-frontal elevated offshore flow will continue this morning,
diminishing this afternoon. Onshore flow will develop Saturday
and increase by Saturday night ahead of another cold front. The
front will be preceded and accompanied by scattered to widespread
showers and thunderstorms late Saturday into Sunday with offshore
flow developing once again in its wake for the early part of next
week.

DML

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  52  75  61  74 /  10  30  90  30
LCH  57  75  64  76 /  10  30  90  20
LFT  54  76  63  76 /  10  10  90  40
BPT  60  74  64  75 /  10  40  90  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...None.
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...05



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