Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS62 KTAE 191916
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
316 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.NEAR TERM [Through Tonight]...

A NE to SW oriented dry cold front bisecting our CWA early this
afternoon will continue to press to the southeast. The front will
push all the way into south Florida by daybreak with a cooler and
drier airmass filtering in on light northerly winds and clear skies
overnight. Lows will range from the upper 40s northwest to the mid
50s southeast Big Bend.


.SHORT TERM [Friday Through Saturday Night]...

High pressure originating from the Midwest will build in behind
the aforementioned cold front ushering in cooler and drier air on
northerly winds. Highs Friday and Saturday will be in the
mid/upper 70s under partly sunny skies. Upstream, a strong closed
low will move across the central Rockies Saturday into eastern
Oklahoma Saturday night. This will push high pressure to the east
ahead of the next storm system. Precipitation chances slowly
increase Saturday night across SE AL and W FL panhandle as the
cold front pushes into W LA by Sunday morning.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Through Thursday]...

High precipitation chances will exist Sunday into Monday before
dry air cuts off the moisture flow Monday night. Models also
indicate wrap around moisture in the form of light showers
Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper low wobbles slowly eastward.
There still are differences between the models on the track of
the low and any resultant severe weather risk, which at this time,
is too early to tell. Decent rainfall amounts appear likely with
1-2 inches widespread through the area with the heavier side of
the amounts across SE AL and SW GA. Cloudy skies and rainfall
will keep highs in the mid 70s through Tuesday. The entire system
moves eastward Wednesday afternoon just in time for a quick
moving cold front to affect the southeast Thursday.


&&

.AVIATION [Through 18Z Friday]...

Occasional MVFR cigs at all terminals except DHN for the remainder
of the afternoon as a cold front continues to push through the
region. Gusty northwest winds will occur after the passage of the
front with winds diminishing this evening. Northwest winds may
become gusty at times on Friday with VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...

North to northwesterly winds will increase this evening behind a
cold frontal passage. Small craft advisories are hoisted tonight
for waters from Apalachicola to the Okaloosa Walton county line.
Exercise caution conditions are expected tonight in waters east of
Apalachicola to Suwanee River. Winds will remain moderate to
strong with additional small craft advisories possible this
weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

The next significant weather system will arrive Saturday night and
continue through Tuesday. Rainfall amounts continue to be around 2
inches, especially across SE AL and SW GA. No widespread flooding
is anticipated with this system at this time.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   52  76  51  77  60 /   0   0   0  10  20
Panama City   54  74  56  75  64 /   0   0   0  10  30
Dothan        47  73  49  76  59 /   0   0   0  10  40
Albany        48  73  48  76  58 /   0   0   0   0  30
Valdosta      53  74  49  76  58 /   0   0   0   0  30
Cross City    56  75  52  77  61 /   0   0   0  10  20
Apalachicola  56  73  56  74  65 /   0   0   0  10  20

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 AM EDT Friday
     for Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Apalachicola to Mexico
     Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico Beach to
     Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Barry
SHORT TERM...Scholl
LONG TERM...Scholl
AVIATION...Barry
MARINE...Scholl
FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan
HYDROLOGY...Scholl



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