Fire Weather Outlook Discussion
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000
FNUS22 KWNS 200625
FWDDY2

Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0125 AM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN ARIZONA...

...Synopsis...
A similar regime for fire weather conditions will exist on D2/Mon as
on the previous day (D1/Sun) as a mid-level trough gradually closes
off over California and southwesterly mid-level flow persists across
dry areas of the Southwest.  This mid-level flow will be slightly
stronger during the D2/Mon afternoon however (40-50 kt) especially
across Arizona.  With vertical mixing processes resulting in
stronger surface flow across parts of this region, critical fire
weather conditions are expected across portions of eastern Arizona,
with elevated fire weather expected in surrounding areas.

...Parts of Arizona, far western New Mexico, and far southeastern
Utah...
Aforementioned vertical mixing processes, in conjunction with a weak
surface pressure gradient persisting across the region, will result
in areas of 15-25 mph across the region increasing to around 20-30
mph across portions of eastern Arizona.  This flow will continue
amidst a very dry low-level airmass, with 70s-80s F afternoon
temperatures resulting in critically low RH values (3-15%).
Persistent drought, dry fuels, and the presence of ongoing fires all
suggest elevated to critical fire weather conditions during the
afternoon and early evening.  A critical delineation remains in
place in areas that have the greatest chance of experiencing 20+ mph
surface winds within the dry environment for several hours during
the afternoon and evening.  A broader elevated area surrounds the
critical, and although surface winds may exceed 20 mph at times
across these areas, they are currently expected to occur on a
brief-enough basis to preclude any categorical upgrade at this time.

..Cook.. 05/20/2018

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$



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