


Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
Issued by NWS Gaylord, MI
215 FNUS53 KAPX 191844 FWFAPX Fire Weather Planning Forecast for northern Lower Michigan National Weather Service Gaylord MI 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 ...Turning Hot with More Rain Chances... .DISCUSSION... Fire danger is set to remain low over the next several days as more rain and thunder chances combined with surging dewpoints lead to less favorable fire growth conditions across the area. Shower chances across northwest lower tonight carry into Friday and spread across the rest of the region, as high temperatures rebound into the upper 70s and lower 80s. Dewpoints are set to remain in the upper 50s to mid 60s, leading to min RHs hovering in the 50s and 60s. Looking ahead, shower and storm potential increases further heading into Friday night and into Saturday before temperatures take off like a rocket for the weekend... tentatively highs peak in the mid 80s to near 90 Saturday, though thunderstorm activity may stunt that... the big warmth shows up Sunday and Monday as temperatures build well into the 90s, and with dewpoints holding in the 70s, it will feel more like the Everglades as opposed to the Northwoods. Despite the warmth and breezy SW winds (10-15mph), high RHs and recent rainfall should keep fire danger quite low. MIZ016-017-021>023-099-200815- Emmet...Cheboygan...Charlevoix...Antrim...Otsego and Montmorency Counties- 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (35-45 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Min Temperature.....52-57. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........95-100 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (17). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. Chance of Thunder...16 percent. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Isolated rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....74-79...except 63-68 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........58-63 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Fair (267). Mixing Height.......1900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.15 in . Chance of Thunder...16 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (41). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.25 in. Chance of Thunder...30 percent. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Max Temperature.....85-90...except 73-78 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........53-58 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 32 mph. Vent Rate...........Excellent (829). Mixing Height.......3000 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 15 mph increasing to southwest around 27 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.13- 0.43 in. Chance of Thunder...49 percent. $$ MIZ018-024-030-036-042-200815- Presque Isle...Alpena...Alcona...Iosco and Arenac Counties...including Eastern Huron NF- 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Min Temperature.....53-58. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Vent Rate...........Poor (21). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Northwest 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . Chance of Thunder...17 percent. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....77-82...except 59-64 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......1 degree warmer. Min Humidity........54-59 percent. 24 HR Trend......5 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 13 mph. Vent Rate...........Fair (269). Mixing Height.......2200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.11 in . Chance of Thunder...23 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of rain showers. Min Temperature.....60-65. 24 HR Trend......5 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 13 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (38). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 9 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.22 in. Chance of Thunder...25 percent. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of rain showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 1200. Max Temperature.....87-92...except 70-75 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........50-55 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 27 mph. Vent Rate...........Excellent (847). Mixing Height.......3100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph increasing to southwest around 24 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.38 in. Chance of Thunder...36 percent. $$ MIZ020-025>027-200815- Leelanau...Benzie...Grand Traverse and Kalkaska Counties...including the Sleeping Bear Dunes NL- 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (45-55 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400. Min Temperature.....53-58. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (14). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West around 9 mph shifting to the southwest around 6 mph after midnight. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . Chance of Thunder...20 percent. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Isolated rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....74-79...except 59-64 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........56-61 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Good (366). Mixing Height.......2100 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.14 in. Chance of Thunder...17 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of rain showers until 2400, then rain showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........93-98 percent...except 82-87 percent along the coast. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 23 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (74). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.25 in. Chance of Thunder...29 percent. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Rain showers likely until 1200. Chance of thunderstorms. Chance of rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....86-91...except 64-69 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........52-57 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 32 mph. Vent Rate...........Excellent (891). Mixing Height.......2900 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph increasing to southwest around 30 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.06- 0.32 in. Chance of Thunder...34 percent. $$ MIZ031>033-200815- Manistee...Wexford and Missaukee Counties...Including the northern quarter of Manistee NF- 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) until 2400, then mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Isolated rain showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms after 2400. Min Temperature.....54-59. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (17). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 6 to 9 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.01 in . Chance of Thunder...22 percent. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Isolated rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....74-79. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........56-61 percent. 24 HR Trend......3 percent wetter...except 4 percent drier along the coast. 20-Foot Winds.......Southwest winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Good (511). Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....Southwest 9 to 18 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None to 0.08 in . Chance of Thunder...15 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Chance of showers. Chance of thunderstorms after 2400. Min Temperature.....63-68. 24 HR Trend......8 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........90-95 percent. 24 HR Trend......5 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 23 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (72). Mixing Height.......700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.11- 0.22 in. Chance of Thunder...31 percent. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent) until 1200, then mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of thunderstorms until 1200. Max Temperature.....86-91...except 77-82 near the coast. 24 HR Trend......11 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........50-55 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 32 mph. Vent Rate...........Excellent (1001). Mixing Height.......3200 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 18 mph increasing to southwest around 30 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.05- 0.15 in. Chance of Thunder...30 percent. $$ MIZ028-029-034-035-041-200815- Crawford...Oscoda...Roscommon...Ogemaw and Gladwin Counties...including Western Huron NF- 244 PM EDT Thu Jun 19 2025 .TONIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent). Min Temperature.....53-58. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees cooler. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......Northwest winds around 5 mph in the evening becoming light. Gusts up to 20 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (20). Mixing Height.......400 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 6 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount.........None. Chance of Thunder...24 percent. .FRIDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent). Isolated rain showers until 1200. Slight chance of thunderstorms. Scattered rain showers after 1200. Max Temperature.....75-80. 24 HR Trend......2 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........54-59 percent. 24 HR Trend......2 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......West winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Good (409). Mixing Height.......2700 ft agl. Transport Winds.....West 6 to 15 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.02- 0.14 in. Chance of Thunder...20 percent. .FRIDAY NIGHT... Sky/Weather.........Mostly cloudy (60-70 percent). Chance of showers. Min Temperature.....61-66. 24 HR Trend......7 degrees warmer. Max Humidity........94-99 percent. 24 HR Trend......1 percent wetter. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds around 5 mph with occasional gusts up to 18 mph. Vent Rate...........Poor (46). Mixing Height.......500 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South 9 to 12 mph. Pcpn Amount......... 0.07- 0.26 in. Chance of Thunder...25 percent. .SATURDAY... Sky/Weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Chance of showers and thunderstorms until 1200. Max Temperature.....87-92. 24 HR Trend......12 degrees warmer. Min Humidity........48-53 percent. 24 HR Trend......4 percent drier. 20-Foot Winds.......South winds 5 to 10 mph with occasional gusts up to 27 mph. Vent Rate...........Excellent (948). Mixing Height.......3300 ft agl. Transport Winds.....South around 12 mph increasing to southwest around 27 mph in the afternoon. Pcpn Amount......... 0.04- 0.23 in. Chance of Thunder...36 percent. $$ .EXTENDED... .SUNDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLEAR. CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. .TUESDAY...NOT AS WARM. MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE MID 60S. HIGHS AROUND 80. WEST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF SHOWERS. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. .THURSDAY...SHOWERS LIKELY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH. $$ HAD