143
FXUS65 KABQ 122023
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
223 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Isolated showers and storms will continue across northeastern New
Mexico this afternoon before tapering off overnight. Similar
conditions are expected through Tuesday, favoring the high
terrain. Coverage of showers and storms will increase Wednesday
amongst a slight cooldown. Much cooler temperatures are expected
areawide on Thursday, bringing all locales below seasonal
averages. Drier and breezier conditions will close out the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

The upper low is currently moving from southeast CO into western KS
per the latest water vapor imagery, with wrap-around moisture over
north central and northeast NM combining with instability to produce
a round of scattered showers and isolated storms. However, today`s
round is missing the shear that was in place yesterday with the
front completely backed-out of the area and gusty westerly winds
prevailing, so storms will remain garden-variety. Convection is
forecast to follow a normal diurnal downtrend this evening with the
loss of daytime heating. A short-lived warming/drying trend will
kick off Monday as an upper level ridge moves east into the region
in the wake of the departing upper low. Daytime temperatures will be
several degrees warmer than today`s and generally within a few
degrees of normal. Lingering moisture will be sufficient for late
day build-ups over the mountains given daytime heating Monday
afternoon, but rain amounts will be on the low side.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

A shortwave ridge will lead to a reduction in showers and
thunderstorms on Tuesday, though isolated activity is possible
over the northern high terrain. A weak disturbance moving into the
Desert Southwest on Wednesday will lend to increased coverage of
showers and storms, namely over western and northern NM. Slightly
cooler temperatures are also expected for most locales. A
convectively-aided backdoor front will surge southward and
westward Wednesday night. This fropa will deliver a reinforcing
shot of cold air, which will translate to markedly cooler
temperatures on Thursday. Coverage of precipitation will increase
thanks to the enhanced lift by the moist upslope flow. As the
upper level disturbance departs, a return to drier conditions will
take hold on Friday. A slight uptick in winds is expected Friday
and Saturday afternoon but only locally breezy conditions are
expected. Temperatures will rebound 5F to 12F on Friday compared
to Thursday`s readings, warming a few degrees more on Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1008 AM MDT Sun May 12 2024

VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist except for
short lived MVFR conditions in/near scattered convection this
afternoon, potentially impacting KSAF and KLVS. Otherwise, a weak
backdoor front will move down the eastern plains overnight and
result in a northerly wind shift, most notably at KROW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 214 PM MDT Sun May 12 2024

Critical fire weather conditions are not forecast through the next
seven days, although hot, dry and unstable conditions will spread
from west to east across much of the area Mon/Tue/Wed. The
combination of a northern stream trough and associated backdoor cold
front, with an approaching Pacific low, will bring improved chances
for wetting storms Wed/Thu and favor areas along/east of the central
mountain chain. A renewed warming/drying trend is forecast from
Friday through next weekend, with any showers/storms remaining on
the drier side. Hot, dry and unstable conditions will return next
weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  40  79  44  82 /   0  10   0   5
Dulce...........................  32  73  35  77 /  20  30   5  20
Cuba............................  36  73  40  75 /  10  10   5  20
Gallup..........................  33  77  37  78 /   0   5   5  20
El Morro........................  35  73  40  73 /   0  10  10  20
Grants..........................  32  76  38  76 /   0   5   5  20
Quemado.........................  37  75  41  74 /   0  10  10  20
Magdalena.......................  45  74  49  76 /   5  10  10  20
Datil...........................  40  72  43  73 /   0  10  10  20
Reserve.........................  34  79  37  81 /   0  10   5  10
Glenwood........................  48  83  51  85 /  10  10   0   5
Chama...........................  31  65  34  70 /  30  40  10  30
Los Alamos......................  43  70  47  72 /  20  20   5  30
Pecos...........................  38  70  42  75 /  20  20   5  20
Cerro/Questa....................  34  65  40  70 /  20  20  10  30
Red River.......................  29  59  33  66 /  20  30  20  40
Angel Fire......................  27  61  29  68 /  20  20  10  40
Taos............................  31  70  35  75 /  10  20   5  20
Mora............................  35  67  37  71 /  20  20   5  30
Espanola........................  40  76  45  79 /  10  10   5  20
Santa Fe........................  42  72  47  75 /  20  10   5  20
Santa Fe Airport................  40  75  45  78 /  30  10   5  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  50  78  54  81 /  10   5   5  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  47  79  52  83 /  10   5   0  10
Albuquerque Valley..............  46  81  51  85 /  10   5   0   5
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  48  79  52  83 /  10   5   0  10
Belen...........................  44  82  48  85 /   5   5   0  10
Bernalillo......................  46  80  50  83 /  20   5   0  10
Bosque Farms....................  43  81  48  85 /  10   5   0  10
Corrales........................  46  80  50  84 /  10   5   0  10
Los Lunas.......................  43  82  48  85 /  10   5   0  10
Placitas........................  47  76  51  80 /  20   5   5  10
Rio Rancho......................  47  79  51  83 /  10   5   0  10
Socorro.........................  50  84  53  87 /   5   5   5  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  44  71  47  75 /  20   5   5  10
Tijeras.........................  44  74  48  78 /  20   5   5  10
Edgewood........................  40  74  44  77 /  20   5   0  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  36  76  39  79 /  20   5   0  10
Clines Corners..................  38  71  42  75 /  20  10   0  10
Mountainair.....................  41  74  46  78 /   5   5   5  10
Gran Quivira....................  40  75  45  78 /   5   5   5   5
Carrizozo.......................  48  78  53  82 /   5   5   5   5
Ruidoso.........................  44  69  48  75 /   0  20   5  10
Capulin.........................  39  67  41  74 /  20  10   0  30
Raton...........................  38  72  40  78 /  20  10   5  30
Springer........................  38  74  40  78 /  20  10   0  20
Las Vegas.......................  37  69  40  76 /  20  20   5  20
Clayton.........................  47  74  48  81 /  30  10   0  10
Roy.............................  43  73  46  78 /  30  10   0  10
Conchas.........................  47  79  49  85 /  20  10   5   5
Santa Rosa......................  45  76  47  82 /  10   5   0   5
Tucumcari.......................  46  80  48  87 /  10   5   0   0
Clovis..........................  49  80  51  88 /   5   0   0   0
Portales........................  48  81  50  89 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Sumner.....................  47  81  50  87 /   5   0   0   5
Roswell.........................  54  86  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
Picacho.........................  48  78  50  83 /   0  10   0  10
Elk.............................  46  76  48  82 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...11