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000
FXUS63 KARX 040423
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1123 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

Key Messages:

 - Showers and scattered storms from tonight through Wednesday.

 - Periodic showers possible Thursday into Saturday Night.

 - Frost Possible from This Weekend into early next week.

Tonight through Wednesday:

A cold front will move east through the region tonight and
Wednesday morning. The 0-1 km mixed-layer CAPES will be up to
250 J/kg ahead of this front. Like the past couple of days, the
stronger 0-3 km and 0-6 km shear is located mainly in the wake of
this front. As a result, not expecting any organized severe
weather with this frontal passage. The model ensembles are good
agreement that rainfall amounts will mainly less than a tenth of
an inch. High temperatures on Wednesday will be mainly in the 70s.

Thursday into Saturday Morning:

A couple of Canadian cold fronts will move southeast across the
area through this time period. The first one will produce isolated
to scattered showers mainly north of Interstate 94 on Thursday.
The second one will move through late Thursday night and Friday.
This one will produce more widespread showers across the region
for Friday and Friday evening. Like its predecessor, rainfall
amounts look to be on the light side. There is up to 50%
probability of a tenth of an inch and less than a 10% chance of a
quarter of an inch. The highest probabilities for both amounts is
along and north of Interstate 94. High temperatures behind the
first front will range from the lower 60s to lower 70s on Thursday
and range from the upper 40s to mid-50s behind the second front
on Friday. South and west winds of 10-20 mph will produce wind
chills in the 30s and 40s on Friday.

Saturday Night through Sunday Night:

Canadian high pressure will provide unseasonably cool temperatures
across the region through this time period. 850 mb temperatures
will be around 1.5 standard deviations below normal. This will
result in high temperatures ranging from the upper 40s to upper
50s. With mostly clear to partly cloudy skies and light winds on
both nights, low temperatures will fall into the 30s. The coldest
temperatures will be in central and north-central Wisconsin. This
will likely result in some frost across much of the area. The lone
exception will be likely along the Mississippi River where latent
heat release from the warm Mississippi River will likely keep
temperatures warm enough to prohibit frost development. The
probabilities of a hard freeze still look low with probabilities
of temperatures falling below 30 degrees still less than a
10 percent chance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1115 PM CDT Tue Oct 3 2023

As a cold front/strong trough moves into the region. Showers will
continue to increase and push across the area affecting the TAF
sites 06-12Z overnight. The thunder is forecast to diminish, thus
did not include in the TAFs due to the low confidence in
coverage. The KARX vertical wind profiler has been around 35kts
at with 45kts at KMPX...these low level winds will increase 45 to
55kts for a few hours overnight overnight. Sustained winds 8 to
18kts with gusts 20 to 30kts. South winds gradually shift
southwest...to west through 00Z. Included a period of low level
wind shear at both sites. VFR conditions to dominate with patchy
MVFR conditions for a few hours at both sites between 10-16Z.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Zapotocny