Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 250451

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
1151 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Friday Night)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

GOES-East Water Vapor this afternoon showing a closed upper Warm low
across northeast MT/southern Saskatchewan. Mid-level trough moving
northeast in advance of this low was producing scattered storms
across central into northern MN. However, across our forecast area,
warm air advection in full swing with temperatures well into the 80s
as of 2 pm under partly cloudy skies.

For tonight, that mid-level trough will continue pressing eastward
toward the region with a general uptick in 850mb moisture transport.
This could produce a few showers and storms mainly north of the I-
90/94 corridors where better nose of moisture transport will reside.

For Friday, the trough and attendant weak surface cold front will
continue pushing into the area for scattered showers and storms.
Plenty of CAPE (generally around 3000J/kg) will be in place along
with higher precipitable water values in the 1.5 to 1.8 inch range,
but bulk wind shear rather weak around 20kt. So, thinking any storms
will be pulse type in nature with heavy downpours and some stronger
wind gust/small hail -but expecting most storms to remain below
severe limits. Otherwise, look for warm and humid conditions with
highs in the 80s and dew points in the 60s. Scattered showers and
storms expected to continue into Friday evening, exiting south after

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 216 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Saturday will be very warm, and quiet for the most part. A weak
secondary mid-level trough will drop through the U.P. and northern
WI. This could spark a few showers/isolated storms across northern
WI. Otherwise, look for highs topping off in the middle 80s to lower

Ridge amplification on Sunday will provide for a very warm, quiet
day with highs pushing into the upper 80s to the lower 90s.

Memorial Day looks continued very warm and quiet for the most part
with mid-level ridge in place. Will have to watch for possible
elevated convection though as a deep trough out west sends bits of
energy northeast into us.  For now, will carry very small-end
chances of this occurring. Plan on highs in the 85-90 degree range.

Look for a general uptick in shower/thunderstorm chances for Tuesday
through Thursday as a fairly strong trough ejects northeast out of
the Rockies into the Upper Mississippi River Valley region.
Otherwise, plan on temperatures to remain above normal with highs
expected to be in the 80s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1151 PM CDT Thu May 24 2018

Showers and scattered thunderstorms from near KAEL to KRCX will
continue to move east-northeast into the early morning hours,
potentially impacting KRST. Will add VCTS at KRST for the next
couple hours to account for this possibility. Better chance for
showers and thunderstorms will be Friday afternoon into the early
evening as a cold front moves across the region. Will introduce
VCTS at both TAF sites between roughly 25.21Z and 26.02Z, but
timing will need to be adjusted as confidence increases. Cloud
bases will generally be above 3000 ft agl, but could lower with
any stronger storms.

Winds away from thunderstorms will be light through the period,
generally from the south-southwest.




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