Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS La Crosse, WI

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FXUS63 KARX 120716

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
215 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

Upper level shortwave trough progged to drop southward through WI
tonight. Relatively weak qg convergence in the mid/upper levels, but
confined to eastern WI. Time/height x-sections and bufkit soundings
point to some low saturation, along with some lift within this
layer. Could be enough for some light snow/flurry chances tonight -
mainly in/east of the I-94 corridor. High pressure then slated to
build in for Tue/Wed. Coupled with northwest flow at the sfc, should
be a couple quiet and cool days.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 215 AM CDT Mon Mar 12 2018

GFS/EC trends favoring developing broad upper level ridging by the
middle/later half of the new work week, with a milder temperature
regime through the weekend. The GFS does suggest an upper level
shortwave trough could spin across the region Fri/Sat, bringing a
threat for some pcpn. The EC holds onto a sfc high, keeping much of
the upper level energy south and/or northwest of the local area.
Will let consensus detail any pcpn threat for the time being.
Overall, looks fairly quiet for the upcoming weekend, with
temperatures at or above the seasonable normals.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1142 PM CDT Sun Mar 11 2018

Minor wave passing through is producing a mix of flight categories
tonight, although LIFR/IFR areas continue to diminish in areal
coverage. Overall return to MVFR and VFR conditions expected as wave
passes and northwest flow increases slightly. Visibilities have
improved at the very least, and still waiting for ceilings to
gradually clear from the northwest. How far that gets early Monday
is big question.

As another short wave pushes across western Great Lakes later on
Monday, lots of signals in short term models of stratus field
filling back in and may push west. While confidence is not great,
kept earlier trends of bringing back in at least MVFR ceilings and
holding that into Monday night.




LONG TERM....Rieck
AVIATION...Shea is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.