830
FXUS61 KBTV 170246
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
1046 PM EDT Thu May 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
After a showery pattern over the last week, a pattern change looks
in store for us this weekend into the middle of next week. High
pressure is expected to develop across the North Country this
weekend with temperatures warming each day through next Tuesday. Our
first taste of summer will be upon us with highs climbing into the
upper 70s to mid 80s next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1032 PM EDT Thursday...Temperatures are cooling slower
than anticipated in the northern Champlain Valley where mid
level clouds are lingering. AM temperatures may end up a degree
or so warmer than the current forecast with a couple of spots
lingering in the upper 50s. The rest of Vermont is largely cloud
free with potential for cooling to result in areas of fog
overnight. Best chances of dense fog will be where rainfall
occurred today mainly in northeastern Vermont.

Previous Discussion...The stalled frontal boundary, not
surprisingly, hasn`t move much throughout the day today.
Satellite imagery this afternoon depicts the frontal boundary
very well with an agitated cumulus field along the front, stable
stratus behind the front, and increasing cloud cover ahead of
the front. Given nice baroclinicity associated with differential
heating, we`ve seen scattered showers develop across northern
Vermont and northern New York. Given weak thermal profiles,
equilibrium levels around 14kft should limit updraft strength
and will likely prevent the ice nucleation needed to create
lightning. Some showers this afternoon and evening could be
heavy at times we a few sites reporting up to half of an inch of
rain in an hour. We should quickly see these showers wane as we
head into the evening and lose what limited instability that is
currently in place. We will finally see the frontal boundary
lift north on Friday as a a developing upper level ridge finally
displaces the cut off low off the Mid- Atlantic coastline. This
should shift the shower activity north of the International
Border on Friday but another round of showers is expected to
move in from the west Friday night with the main focus of the
shower activity across the St. Lawrence Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...A mid-level shortwave trough will bring
the potential for precipitation Saturday, and there remains a
moderate level of uncertainty amongst the deterministic models.
Shower chances look to be 20-40% throughout the day as Saturday
catches the tail end of the forcing from the shortwave. Instability
is relatively unimpressive, but the best chance for some rumbles of
thunder will be in the St. Lawrence Valley of New York Saturday
afternoon. Highs Saturday will be in the low to mid 70s, roughly 5
degrees above climatological normals.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 304 PM EDT Thursday...High pressure and mid/high level ridging
will take up residence for the second half of the weekend and the
first half of next week, providing fairly dry weather and increasing
temperatures. Subsidence from high pressure could assist in
producing isolated patchy fog for a couple of the nights. If all
goes according to forecast, Monday may be the first 80+ F day at the
BTV airport as temperatures rise into the mid 70s to lower 80s
across the forecast area both Monday and Tuesday. Models continue to
agree strongly on temperatures 75+ F outside of the higher
elevations for those days, particularly Monday.

The next chance for precipitation will be midweek onward, when a
frontal passage could provide some showers and thunderstorms,
particularly Wednesday afternoon and evening. This will also allow
high temperatures to dip back down towards seasonable in the upper
60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 00Z Saturday...All terminals are currently VFR and they
should stay that way through the evening. Patchy fog will
develop across the region later tonight. The most likely
terminals to have fog are SLK, MPV and EFK. However, confidence
is not overly high in the fog forecast so it cannot be ruled out
at any of the other terminals. Any fog that develops will
quickly dissipate by mid-morning and VFR conditions will persist
through the rest of the day. Winds will be relatively light
during the whole period, generally shifting to southerly during
the day tomorrow. LLWS is not a concern. A brief shower is
possible at any of the terminals during the day tomorrow but it
likely would not be heavy enough to cause any significant
visibility restrictions.

Outlook...

Friday Night: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday: VFR. Chance SHRA.
Saturday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Clay
NEAR TERM...Boyd/Clay
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Myskowski