948
AXPZ20 KNHC 082125
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Wed May 8 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1930 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N76W to 11.5N95W to 12N110W
to low pres 1011 mb near 10.5N115W to low pres 1010 mb near
07.5N121.5W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from
05N to 11N E of 88W and extends into the SW Caribbean. Scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N
between 90W and 105W. Scattered to numerous strong convection is
noted from 04N to 11N between 114W and 124W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

High pressure centered N of the area extends a broad ridge
southward across the regional Pacific waters and weakly southeast
over the offshore waters of Baja California to the Revillagigedo
Islands. Low pressure extends northward along the entire coast
of California. The pressure gradient between the high pressure
and this area of low pressure is supporting strong to gale-force
N to N-NW winds across the near and offshore waters of
California, becoming fresh across the far outer waters of Baja
California Norte, to the NW of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere across
the Baja waters, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail. The
winds offshore of California continue to generate NW swell that
is moving into the region. Seas across most of the Baja waters
are 6 to 7 ft, except 7 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia. Inside the
Gulf of California, winds are gentle to locally moderate from the
NW and W. Seas along the Gulf are 2 to 3 ft, except 4 to 5 ft in
SW swell at the entrance of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the S and
SW Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from
the W to NW, and become onshore across the Gulf of Tehuantepec,
while seas remain 5 to 6 ft in SW swell.

For the forecast, the high pressure well N of the local area
will shift NE through Thu, then drift W and weaken through the
weekend. This will lead to the continuation of moderate NW winds
across the Baja Peninsula waters today, with small areas of
locally fresh winds developing near the coasts during the
afternoon and evening, then become generally gentle to moderate
winds Thu through the weekend. NW swell will continue to move
into the Baja offshore waters through the week, with seas in
excess of 8 ft persisting across the waters north through west of
Punta Eugenia through Thu evening, before subsiding. Gentle to
locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere
across the S and SW Mexican offshore waters through Sun night.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms prevail across
the near and offshore waters N of 04.5N between the Gulf of
Panama and NW Costa Rica, and extend into the SW Caribbean. This
active weather is occurring about the monsoonal circulation
becoming seasonally established across the region, and is
producing frequent lightning, strong gusty winds, and moderate
to rough seas. Over the remainder Central America offshore waters
N of 10N, winds remain light and variable and seas moderate, 4
to 5 ft in S swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the
Galapagos Islands, winds are mainly moderate from the S to SW
with 5 to 6 ft seas in S swell.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are
expected S of the monsoon trough, roughly along 09N, through
Fri, which will feed moisture into the scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms currently across the area waters. This
active weather will shift slowly westward of 90W by Fri
afternoon. Light to gentle variable winds will prevail elsewhere
along with moderate seas in S swell. Otherwise, new southerly
swell entering the region today will maintain seas of 6 to 7 ft S
of the Galapagos Islands through Sun, and building briefly to
near 8 ft Fri night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

1036 mb high pressure is centered well offshore of the Oregon
coast, and extends a broad ridge southward across the subtropical
waters between 110W and 150W. Moderate NW to N winds are north
of 25N between 120W and 125W, while gentle to moderate N winds
prevail elsewhere N of 20N between 115W and 125W, then become NE
to E-NE to the west of 125W. Seas across this area N of 20N are
6-8 ft in NW swell, except 8 to 10 ft north of 28N and E of
130W. S of 20N, between the ridge and the ITCZ and W of 120W,
moderate to locally fresh NE to E-NE winds and 6-8 ft seas in NE
swell prevail. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate SE to E
winds are noted with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed SE and SW swell.
Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds over the western part of
the tropical waters will gradually become confined to between the
ITCZ and 20N through Sun, as high pressure N of the area
gradually weakens. Seas of 6 to 7 ft with small areas to 8 ft are
expected across the trade winds zone through Fri, then will
subside slightly through Sun. NW swell across the Baja
California Norte waters will build through early tonight to
produce seas of 8 ft and greater, mainly N of 25W and E of 130W
through Thu afternoon, then will subside below 8 ft late Thu
night, and to 6 ft or less on Sat.

$$
Stripling