Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
Issued by NWS Grand Forks, ND
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522 FXUS63 KFGF 092327 AFDFGF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Forks ND 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Showers and isolated thunderstorms in western Minnesota Friday afternoon. - Chances for showers and thunderstorms middle of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 The next short wave and cold front are progressing across southern Manitoba. Overall, not too much will be expected as these pass through this evening. There is a thin band of clouds, which could produce an isolated shower or two. However, upstream radar returns are not all that impressive, so may be able to remove these if that trend continues. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 234 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Fairly quiet for the first part of the night, but a shortwave coming into Manitoba and Ontario over the top of the ridge could bring some increasing cloud cover and some light shower activity to northwestern MN later tonight. The shortwave will dig into MN/WI during the day tomorrow, bringing some decent broad lift over our eastern tier of counties into the afternoon. While much will depend on how morning showers play out and how much cloud cover remains, there is at least a 40 to 50 percent chance for 500 J/kg of CAPE by tomorrow afternoon. Deep layer bulk shear will be 30 kts at best, so not expecting any severe potential, but could see some impacts from lightning and very small hail across northwestern and west central MN. Winds will be breezy across much of the CWA as the shortwave comes down and some cold air advection brings some gusts up to 35 mph at times. Westerly surface winds and the warm sector of the surface low will bring very toasty readings for Saturday, and some spots in the RRV could push 80 degrees. A bit cooler Sunday as a trough axis/cold front passes through. The next significant trough starts to move into the western Plains on Tuesday, coming out in some manner on Wednesday although clusters are still all over the place. Still could see showers and a chance for thunderstorms, but specifics on timing and strength too soon to nail down at this point. Temps will cool down to near or just below seasonal averages as the more active weather returns. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 627 PM CDT Thu May 9 2024 Expecting a relatively narrow band of ~6000 foot high clouds to drop southeast through the area this evening. There may be a few showers associated with this band of clouds, but at this point this looks pretty unlikely. Otherwise, as the front moves through overnight into Friday morning, light winds will turn west, then northwest. Friday afternoon look to become pretty windy. && .FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ND...None. MN...None. && $$ UPDATE...Godon DISCUSSION...JR AVIATION...Godon