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000
FXUS65 KLKN 140605
AFDLKN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Elko NV
1105 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Winds across central Nevada will continue to diminish
late this evening, with rain and snow showers spreading in from
the west tonight. Much cooler on Sunday with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.UPDATE...While gusty winds are expected to persist across the
higher terrain tonight, winds in most areas have subsided below
advisory levels. As such, the high wind warning and wind
advisories that were in effect through 11pm in central NV have
been allowed to expire. No changes to the forecast at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 119 PM PDT Sat Apr 13 2024/

SYNOPSIS...Look for breezy to windy conditions continue through
the evening with hazy conditions in many areas due to blowing
dust. Rain and snow showers spread in from the west later tonight
into Sunday. Much cooler tomorrow with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night. Skies are partly to
mostly sunny at this time. Strong winds developed earlier this
morning especially across central Nevada. The current set of wind
advisories and high wind warning are on track and no changes will
be made to the wind headlines for the afternoon package. Model
solutions have slowed the forward progress of the upper low
pressure system. For tonight, the system will slowly shift to the
east, with the center of circulation coming ashore early tomorrow
morning. This will also slow the forward motion of the cold front
as well. During the overnight, look for any showers to begin later
Sunday morning. Winds will continue to be breezy during the
overnight, though gusts are expected to be lower at less than 35
mph. Overnight lows in the 30s to low 40s.

For Sunday and Sunday night, the aforementioned upper low is
expected to move over California Sunday. Clouds will be on the
increase as will chances for light precipitation and isolated
thunderstorms due to a cold front moving west to east. Look for a
wind shift from the south to the west and northwest with frontal
passage. High temperatures tomorrow will be 15 to 20 degrees
cooler than on Saturday with readings only in the 50s. Winds will
be breezy with gusts to 30 to 35 mph in the afternoon.
Precipitation type in the valleys are expected to remain mostly
rain, though a mix of rain and snow showers are possible after
frontal passage. Snow accumulations across the valleys will be
light with up to a half inch or so. High temperatures will
generally be in the 40s and 50s. Light showers will continue into
the overnight hours Sunday with lows in the 20s and 30s.

LONG TERM...Monday through next Saturday.

Continuing light showers Monday across White Pine and eastern
Elko Counties as the deep upper low continues its eastern
progression into Utah. Gusty northwest winds will also be in place
across the forecast area though winds look to remain below
advisory criteria. Showers dissipate thru the evening with dry
weather Monday night. Look for daytime high temperatures in the
low 50s to low 60s. Overnight lows will be in the mid 20s to mid
30s.

Strong cold front driving south into the western U.S. from Canada
looks to keep accumulating precipitation to the east of Nevada
and over Utah and the Rocky Mountain states on Tuesday. That said,
a 10% probability exists for light snow over the high terrain of
Northern Elko County with no appreciable accumulation expected.
Northwesterly breezes will also be in place with winds expected to
be more modest than Monday. Dry weather with light to breezy
afternoon winds looks to be in place from mid week and into the
weekend. Westerly flow over the region with some form of a modest
ridge moving into the intermountain west around the end of the
week.

AVIATION...Winds will be breezy tonight across Nevada with gusts
20KTS to 25KTS at all terminals. Lighter Sunday though breezes
will again be present at times throughout the region. Haze across
the region generated from lofted dust will also dissipate
overnight as the strongest winds ease. Additionally, showers,
along with a 10% probability for weak thunderstorms, move into
central and northwest Nevada tonight, beginning at KTPH around
06Z, and beginning at KWMC and KBAM around 09Z to 10Z. Continued
chances for showers and weak thunderstorms thru most of the day
Sunday with VCSH or -SHRA forecast at all terminals.

HYDROLOGY...Accelerated melting of the mountain snowpack
continues through the evening as temperatures remain well above
normal. Gusty southerly winds will also contribute to the
increased rate of snowmelt, with elevated and swift flows on many
regional waterways through at least the early morning hours
tomorrow.

The Bruneau River is currently in minor flood stage. The Owyhee
River near Mountain City is currently in action stage, and may
reach minor flood stage tonight or early Sunday morning.
Wildhorse Dam is also currently at action stage and is expected
to gradually rise, but remain below minor flood stage over the
coming days.

&&

.LKN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...None.

&&

$$

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