851
FXUS61 KBGM 221503
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1103 AM EDT Wed May 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold frontal boundary will bring some showers and
thunderstorms later today into Thursday across the region. A
brief break is possible Friday before the front comes northward
this weekend with more chances of showers and thunderstorms.
Another frontal boundary and low pressure system continues the
chances for showers and thunderstorms early next week as well.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
11 AM Update...

For this update, there were some minor changes. First,
temperatures at most locations are running a degree or two
warmer than forecasted, so temperatures were bumped up using a
blend of the previous forecast and short-range guidance. The
highs were bumped up as well though it may not be the last time
we have to do that thanks to the early clear skies today. PoPs
were also adjusted slightly, mainly to pull back PoPs based on
some of the 12z guidance. The CAMs will have to be monitored to
see how they handle the MCV that is currently moving through
Ohio. We will have to watch how that system develops today with
the potential for severe weather in our region later this
afternoon. PoP up convection will be possible by the mid to late
afternoon hours though the main line may linger behind and move
through this evening.


Only minor changes with the sunrise update, discussion below.

High pressure that has been over our region the past few days will
continue to shift further offshore and give way to an
approaching pre frontal trough. Continued light southwesterly
flow will allow for one more summer like day across the region
with highs well into the 80`s and even a few locations hitting
90. Right now we are forecasting a tie of the record high at
Binghamton of 86 with Scranton and Syracuse falling short of
record values.

Modeling is in excellent agreement that the pre frontal trough will
be a lifting agent for the development of a round of showers and
thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. We have been able to
hone in on the timing a little better compared to yesterday.
The main cluster of showers and thunderstorms should enter
portions of the Finger Lakes around 5 pm then shift into the
I-81 corridor around 7pm and then clear the region by late
evening.

We are still looking at a fairly robust environment for strong
to perhaps severe storms with steep low and mid-level lapse
rates coupled with 1,000-2,000 J/KG CAPE. Shear continues to be
modeled on the low end of the spectrum but looks sufficient
enough for the storms to organize into clusters with the
potential for small hail and gusty winds. A few storms may
become severe as well depending on how the event unfolds today.

With the eventual cold front working into the region overnight, the
possibilities for a few showers and thunderstorms don`t
completely go away. The cold front eventually checks up just
south of the region on Thursday so enough lift looks present to
keep a chance for some showers and thunderstorms across NE PA
and perhaps into the southern Tier and southern Catskills
regions. Temperatures do trend cooler after the frontal passage
with highs only getting to around 80 after a muggy start in the
60`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update:

As a cold front gradually continues to press to the south and
east, there can be an isolated shower or thunderstorm that
lingers across NE PA and the southern Catskills Thursday night,
mainly during the evening. Weak surface high pressure will be
building in in the wake of the front and this will lead to some
clearing as the night goes on, and cooler, drier air will be
filtering in as well with lows in the 50s.

Friday looks to be a pretty nice day with high pressure in
control. Skies are expected to be mostly sunny and it will be
comfortably warm for the afternoon. Highs will range from the
mid 70s to the low 80s and dew points will be from the upper 40s
to the low 50s. Dry conditions continue through Friday evening,
then prior to daybreak Saturday, an upper level shortwave and
an approaching frontal boundary will be moving in from the west
and southwest that will bring a chance of showers and
thunderstorms to the area for the start of the Memorial Day
holiday weekend. There is some uncertainty with regards to
timing of both features and the track of the shortwave, but
chances for precipitation do look highest Saturday afternoon
(40-60%). A few showers or storms may linger into Saturday
night. Saturday`s highs are expected to be in the upper 70s and
low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
345 AM Update:

High pressure is expected to build back into the area briefly
Sunday. However, some modeling stalls the front that crosses the
area Saturday into Saturday night just to our southeast on
Sunday, keeping a small chance of a shower or thunderstorm
around, especially for the Catskills and NE PA. A more organized
area of low pressure and cold front looks to move into the area
Sunday night into Monday with a more probable chance of showers
and thunderstorms Monday, Memorial Day. Some additional showers
and perhaps a thunderstorm may linger into Tuesday.
Temperatures are expected to trend downward early next week as
highs go from the mid 70s to low 80s in some valley locations
Sunday to the upper 60s and low 70s by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through most of the afternoon. The main concern will be the
development of scattered showers and thunderstorms across the
region from 20Z today till roughly 03Z Thursday. Coverage and
timing are still somewhat uncertain so only including TEMPO
groups at this time. MVFR ceilings are likely to form
overnight.


Outlook...

Thursday through Friday night...Mainly VFR. Any lingering MVFR
ceilings burn off by 15Z Thursday. Patchy early morning valley
fog possible Friday.

Saturday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and
thunderstorms.

Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Record highs for Today 5/22

Avoca: 93 in 1911, forecast is 89.
Binghamton: 86 in 1975, forecast is 86.
Syracuse: 92 in 1911, forecast is 91.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Air Quality Alert until 11 PM EDT this evening for NYZ062.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BTL/MWG
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...BTL/DK
AVIATION...MWG
CLIMATE...