Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 200227
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1027 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold northwest flow will continue through Friday with scattered
snow showers and flurries. Any snow accumulations will be an
inch or less. The weekend will be mostly sunny with gradual
warming.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
10 PM update...
The forecast is good with few changes. Scattered to occasional
snow showers into the northern tier of NEPA and isolated further
south. The snow showers are multibands with a cold northwest
flow. A Georgian Bay connection is west of the area from Buffalo
into north central PA. Showers over our area are slowly
diminishing in coverage and strength as the lift decreases.
Coverage should fall to isolated late tonight into Friday
morning. Friday will feature fewer snow showers compared to
today with less lift and more low level shear.

previous discussion...
Upper level trough combined with fairly steep lapse rates and
diurnal heating will keep snow showers and flurries across
central New York and the northern tier of Pennsylvanian through
early evening. Later tonight the snow showers will be more
confined to areas downwind of Lake Ontario as temperatures drop
enough for lake enhanced snow showers under 320 flow. Overnight
snow accumulations will generally be an inch or less except for
the higher elevations in southern Onondaga/Madison counties
where the snow could approach 2 inches. Overnight lows will
range from the middle 20s to around 30.

On Friday, cyclonic upper level flow, low level moisture and
temperatures at 850mb still cold enough for lake enhancement
activity will continue scattered snow showers and flurries
across central New York but mainly confined to areas southeast
of Lake Ontario. The snow showers will mix with rain during the
afternoon as boundary layer temperatures warm. Highs will range
from the middle 30s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday night through Sunday will be a dry period with gradual
warming. Skies will be mostly sunny both Saturday and Sunday as
surface high pressure resides over the eastern Great Lakes.
Highs Saturday will range from the mid 40s to around 50 with
Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The valley areas of
northeast Pennsylvania will be in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 pm update... Overall, a blocky regime at the upper levels is
progged to continue well into next week. Temperatures look
milder than we`ve experienced recently (closer to normal for
late April).

At the start of the period (Monday and Tuesday), an upper ridge
axis over the eastern states should keep our weather dry, with
daily highs moderating back into the 50s-lower 60s.

More uncertainty creeps in towards the middle of the week. The
key focal point appears to be exactly how the interaction
between an approaching northern stream disturbance from the
west and a southern stream one moving up along the east coast
plays out. For now, we`re continuing to advertise a chance of
showers Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Snow showers and flurries will predominate between 00Z and about
02Z-04Z or so this evening with brief drops in visibility to
IFR in snow showers all terminals. Ceilings will be mainly
bouncing from MVFR-VFR this evening but lower to more
widespread MVFR between roughly 04z-08z and 14-18z. MVFR
ceilings will persist longest at KBGM and KITH and mainly
between about 06-08z and 13z-14z or so rest of TAF sites.

After sunrise, northwest winds and stratocumulus will continue
with ceilings improving to VFR under mainly overcast skies all
TAF sites. The clouds will begin to break up after 18z.

West to northwest winds will continue around 10-15 knots gusting
to 20-25 knots through the TAF period all terminals.

Outlook...

Friday night...Brief mostly minor restrictions possible in
scattered snow showers.

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM/TAC
NEAR TERM...RRM/TAC
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...BJT/MLJ
AVIATION...DJN



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