Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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447
FXUS63 KILX 191910
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
210 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Scattered clouds linger south of I-70 early this afternoon, but
continue to decrease as subsidence strengthens over the area.
High pressure slowly drifting into the Great Lakes overnight and
Friday will result in mainly clear skies. Have made no changes to
the freeze headlines along and south of I-70. While areas north of
there will be well below freezing, the growing season hasn`t
gotten quite as far along yet. Temperatures on Friday will warm
nicely from this cold start though, and should be close to 60 in
most areas by mid afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 209 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

Extended period of snow-free spring weather appears on the horizon
through this period, as temperatures continue to warm close to
(though not quite at) climatological normals. Some questions with
the extended models on the timing of the warmest periods next
week, but no real surges of Canadian air look to make it this far
south.

Precipitation-wise, the upper low currently over Nevada remains on
track to emerge over the Plains this weekend, tracking into the
lower Mississippi Valley. The associated showers look to stay
south of us initially. However, the low will drift into the
Tennessee Valley early next week. Have added some scattered
showers over southeast Illinois for Monday as a result. Meanwhile,
a strong Canadian wave will drop southward on Tuesday. The GFS
solution has this wave absorbing the remnants of the earlier low,
while the Canadian and European solutions strengthen a storm
system over the northern and central Plains Tuesday night. These
latter solutions appear more plausible at this time, and will be
our primary rain chance over the next week. May need to make some
adjustments later in lingering rain deeper into Wednesday, but
for now, rain chances on Wednesday will be limited to eastern
Illinois.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Thu Apr 19 2018

VFR conditions expected through the period. Last of the
stratocumulus is exiting central Illinois, with MVFR ceilings now
well to the south. North winds will remain rather breezy during
the day, but diminish after sunset as high pressure builds in from
the north.


&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 8 AM CDT Friday for ILZ062-063-
066>068-071>073.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Geelhart
LONG TERM...Geelhart
AVIATION...Geelhart



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