Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN

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FXUS64 KMEG 242018

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
318 PM CDT Sat Mar 24 2018

.DISCUSSION...Surface analysis this afternoon places a surface
low just southeast of Rolla, Missouri with a trailing cold front
over South Central Missouri and into Northwest Arkansas. Visible
satellite trends indicate cloudy skies generally along and south
of I-40 with decreasing cloud cover elsewhere. As of 2 PM CDT,
temperatures across the Mid-South are in the 60s to lower 70s
along and south of I-40 and lower to middle 70s where clouds have
decreased elsewhere.

A surface low over Missouri is expected to move east into Western
Kentucky tonight. Instability has increased over portions of
Northwest Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel where coverage of
cloud cover has been less. Short term models including short term
CAM models suggest a narrow window potential for focused shower
and thunderstorm development across portions of Northeast
Arkansas, the Missouri Bootheel and West Tennessee as the
southeast moving surface low encounters marginal mid-level
forcing. A strong to perhaps an isolated severe thunderstorm will
be possible through mid evening with hail being the primary threat
if any thunderstorm can reach severe limits. The surface low will
move away from the area into Sunday morning with the cold front
dropping into Central and Southern Mississippi on Sunday.

This front is expected to return back north as a warm front
across the Lower Mississippi Valley Sunday night into Monday with
shower and thunderstorm chances returning. Rain chances will
decrease on Monday as the focus for convective activity shifts
north and west of the forecast area.

Long term model trends suggest another front will move into the
Lower Mississippi Valley towards the middle of next week bringing
rain chances back to the region. A period of heavy rainfall is
still possible between the Tuesday night through Thursday
timeframe. However, some disagreements including placement and
amounts have developed over the past couple of runs. Will leave
the mention of heavy rainfall in the Hazardous Weather Outlook for
now and adjust if necessary in subsequent forecasts.



18Z TAFs

Winds will veer with time as a surface low tracks from south
Missouri into middle TN. Sustained speeds around 15 kts are
expected today with gusts to 25kts. Wind speeds will gradually
decreasing starting mid afternoon with North to Northeast wind
tomorrow less then 5kt.

Backed off on the forecast of showers this afternoon based on
radar coverage and short term guidance. Held onto VCSH for the
remainder of the day but prevailing on station rain does not look
likely. TUP may see some lower cigs before midnight, but for the
most part Cigs should remain MVFR or better with gradually
improving conditions overnight.




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