Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 271148
AFDMOB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mobile AL
648 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z issuance...
Though cloudy expect majority VFR conditions starting in the late
morning and lasting through the evening hours. Some isolated
showers and storms may be possible in the afternoon from diurnal
heating, but these will be short lived. Late in the evening and
overnight coastal areas become more influenced by Subtropical
Storm Alberto with gusty north winds and MVFR ceilings on the
tailend of the forecast. DJ/17



&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 541 AM CDT Sun May 27 2018/

NEAR TERM /Now Through Sunday night/...Sub-tropical Storm Alberto
was positioned over the southeast Gulf lifting northward. There
continues to be a burst of deep convection to the north of
Alberto`s circulation which suggests that a slow transition to a
warm core system is taking place. Alberto is forecast to begin
tracking more north northwest today and tonight. Convective bands
are forecast to pivot westward as Alberto gains latitude with rain
chances trending highest along and east of I-65.

SHORT TERM /Monday Through Tuesday night/...How the short term
forecast evolves is highly dependent on eventual track of Alberto.
Very common in track prediction of tropical cyclones is a shift
in the guidance, and this indeed has occurred for the time being
with the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center
taking the center of Alberto between Destin and Panama City Beach
Florida on Monday as a warm core tropical storm. This is a
substantial eastward shift, which will likely lead to lessening
impacts with the center coming in more east of the area if the
latest forecast holds. For specific information on all impacts
currently in place, including the latest thinking from the
National Hurricane Center on track, please refer to the National
weather Service Mobile AL web site at www.weather.gov/mob.

LONG TERM /Wednesday Through Saturday/...The remnant circulation
center of Alberto is progged to be positioned over the TN River
Valley on Wednesday, eventually getting caught up in the
mid level westerlies and lifting up to the northeast across the
Ohio River Valley Thursday. As the effects of Alberto move away
by mid and late week, chances of showers and storms taper back to
more seasonable then. The heat looks to return by the latter half
of the medium range. /10

The following is a breakdown of impacts and confidence levels for
each:

- Flash Flood - Greatest threat shifts east: Timing: Through
  Tuesday evening. Significant rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches,
  with locally higher amounts along and east of a line from
  Greenville AL to Navarre Beach FL. West of this line to along
  and west across the I-65 corridor, 3 to 5 inches and also
  localized higher amounts.

- Storm Surge - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Tonight through Tuesday.
  A Storm Surge Watch remains in effect for all local coastal
  zones, where 2 to 4 feet above ground level (or inundation) is
  expected.

- High Surf - Confidence: HIGH. Timing: Today through Tuesday
  evening from coastal Baldwin county east to the northwest FL
  Panhandle coast where surf heights around 5 feet today increase
  to 10 to 15 feet by Monday keep the High Surf Warning in place.
  High surf advisory remains in place for coastal Mobile county.

- Rip Currents - Confidence: HIGH. A high risk of dangerous to
  potentially deadly rip currents remains in effect through the
  Thursday evening.

- Wind - Confidence: High. Timing: Tonight through Tuesday.
  Tropical Storm Warning in effect for the entire coast line.

- Severe Storm Potential - Risk: Low. Timing: With the track
  forecast of Alberto having shifted to the east, threat of severe
  weather has lowered.

MARINE...The latest NHC forecast has shifted the track of Alberto a
little farther eastward, with landfall expected generally in the
vicinity of the Florida Panhandle, just west of Panama City
Florida Monday afternoon. Tropical storm force winds are still
possible across much of the marine area on the western side of the
tropical cyclone Sunday night into Monday evening. A Tropical
Storm Warning remains in effect for all marine zones. /21

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for ALZ052>060-261>266.

     Tropical Storm Warning for ALZ263>266.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for ALZ265-266.

     High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ266.

     High Surf Advisory until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for ALZ265.

FL...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for FLZ201>206.

     Tropical Storm Warning for FLZ201>206.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ202-204-
     206.

     High Surf Warning until 7 AM CDT Tuesday for FLZ202-204-206.

MS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MSZ079.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ630>636-650-655-670-675.

&&

$$

This product is also available on the web at:
http://weather.gov/mob



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