Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KTAE 201417
AFDTAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tallahassee FL
1017 AM EDT Fri Apr 20 2018

.UPDATE...

No chances were made to current forecast package.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION [638 AM EDT]...

.NEAR TERM [Through Today]...

In the upper levels a trough will be over the region today as a
ridge remains over the Mississippi Valley and Great Plains. At the
surface remnants of a cold front will be over North Florida and high
pressure will be over the Midwest and Southeast. Expect cooler,
drier air today with northerly winds as high pressure moves in. POPs
will be near zero. Highs today will be in the 70s.


.SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Sunday]...

06Z IR and WV satellite imagery shows an upper level disturbance out
over the Great Basin. This disturbance will move eastward into the
Rockies tonight, the southern Plains Saturday, and the lower
Mississippi Valley Saturday night. As this disturbance pushes
eastward, a surface cold front will develop and move into the
southeast. Isolated to scattered showers will be possible Saturday
afternoon and evening well ahead of this system, but more widespread
showers and thunderstorms will overtake the area starting late
Saturday night. Instability and deep layer shear will be low across
the area until Sunday. Sunday afternoon, 0-6 km shear will increase
to around 45-50 knots and MLCAPE will increase to around 500-700
J/kg, which could be just enough to allow isolated strong to severe
storms to develop. The main threat would be damaging wind gusts with
these storms.

With increased cloud cover ahead of this system, afternoon max
temperatures will be cooler- sticking mostly to the mid to upper 70s
on Saturday, then low to mid 70s Sunday. Lows will be in the 50s
Saturday morning, then 60s Sunday morning.


.LONG TERM [Sunday Night Through Friday]...

The aforementioned upper level disturbance will weaken and lift into
the Tennessee Valley Monday, slowing the forward movement of the
surface front. Thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across
the area through Monday, but scattered areas of light rain may
linger behind the front through Tuesday. Storm total accumulations
from this front are expected to be around 1.5 to 2.5 inches, with
the highest totals in southeast Alabama an southwest Georgia.


.AVIATION [Through 12Z Saturday]...

VFR conditions are expected at all terminals this TAF period.
Northeasterly winds will be moderate and may gust up to 20 knots
briefly this afternoon.


.MARINE...

East winds will increase to around 20 knots tonight with seas
building to 4 to 6 feet on Saturday. In addition to advisory
level winds and seas, chances of showers and thunderstorms are in
the forecast for the weekend.


.FIRE WEATHER...

Cool, dry air will be in place through tomorrow. RH values are
expected to remain above critical red flag thresholds. High
dispersions are possible tomorrow. Otherwise no fire weather
concerns.


.HYDROLOGY...

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase this weekend and
could last into Tuesday. Rainfall totals will be around 1.5-2.5
inches over this period, with the highest values across SE AL and SW
GA. No widespread flooding is anticipated with this system at this
time.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always
encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they
occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Tallahassee   76  53  79  61  76 /   0   0  20  40  60
Panama City   74  58  77  65  73 /   0   0  20  40  60
Dothan        73  51  79  59  74 /   0   0  10  40  80
Albany        73  51  78  59  74 /   0   0   0  40  80
Valdosta      74  51  77  60  75 /   0   0  10  30  60
Cross City    75  54  78  63  78 /   0   0  10  20  50
Apalachicola  73  58  76  66  73 /   0  10  10  30  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AL...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT Sunday
     for Apalachee Bay or Coastal Waters From Keaton Beach to
     Ochlockonee River FL out to 20 Nm-Coastal Waters From
     Ochlockonee River to Apalachicola Fl out to 20 Nm-Coastal
     waters from Suwannee River to Keaton Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Apalachicola FL out 20
     NM-Coastal waters from Mexico Beach to Okaloosa Walton
     County Line FL out 20 NM-Waters from Suwannee River to
     Apalachicola FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Apalachicola
     to Mexico Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Mexico
     Beach to Okaloosa Walton County Line FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Barry
NEAR TERM...McD
SHORT TERM...Nguyen
LONG TERM...Nguyen
AVIATION...McD
MARINE...Nguyen
FIRE WEATHER...McD
HYDROLOGY...Nguyen


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.