932
FXUS61 KBGM 151151
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
651 AM EST Mon Dec 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold Canadian air continues to filter into the region with lake
effect snow showers expected through this morning. A weak wave
of low pressure drops out of Canada this afternoon, with with
more widespread light snow showers. Warmer conditions develop by
midweek with chances for rain increasing on Thursday with an
approaching cold front.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

650 AM Update

Winter weather advisory for Southern Cayuga county will be
allowed to expire at 7 AM EST this morning. Some occasional
light snow may continue through the mid to perhaps late morning
hours before completely lifting northeast and exiting. However,
additional accumulations will be light, under 1 inch for souther
Cayuga county.

Also updated PoPs, QPF and snow amounts based on latest radar
trends, with the Finger Lakes effect narrow snow bands
continuing until mid to late morning, then also shifting north
and east. Accumulations in this area generally 1 inch or less.
Special Weather Statement issued to acknowledge the potential
for snow covered and slippery conditions on untreated surfaces
this morning.

Previous Discussion Below

Cold air mass is in place this morning with 850 mb temperatures near
-18 degrees C. North northwest flow is directing this frigid air
mass over the finger lakes allowing lake effect snow showers to
continue into the early morning over the Twin Tiers regions of
NY/PA. Although QPF is light, with this air mass in place, snow
ratios are high, so we will see some light accumulations. A lake
effect band is expected to reorganize over S. Cayuga and Onondaga
counties this morning bringing a additional 1 to 2 inches over the
far northwestern portion of the county through late morning. As a
result, the winter weather advisory for Onondaga has been extended
through 1 PM today.

Ridging will build in from the southwest later this morning and the
lake effect snow showers will start to diminish and gradually lift
back north. However, another shortwave moves into the area this
afternoon and evening, bringing a period of light warm air advection
snow to most of Central NY and perhaps parts of NE PA. Minor snow
accumulations up to about 1 inch are expected from this weak weather
system. Otherwise temperatures improve slightly with highs making it
back into the low to mid 20s, but still much below average for this
time of year. Drier conditions are expected overnight with
exceptions over northern Oneida where a lake effect shower may clip
the county. Lows will be chilly with temperatures in the single
digits to low teens.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Westerly flow shifts southwest on Tuesday with zonal flow aloft and
weak high pressure at the surface. Conditions are expected to remain
quiet and dry with mostly sunny skies in the morning. This will be
short lived as another weak system approaches the region, thus
increasing cloud cover out ahead of it. Warm air gets advected into
the region as the day progresses and we start to see temperatures
trending slightly warmer. Although highs will still remain in the
mid to upper 20s for one more day. A weak system in Canada will
drift eastward Tuesday night and eventually clip the region
Wednesday afternoon with precipitation for north-central NY.
Temperatures Wednesday will climb in the mid 30s to low 40s allowing
initial precip to fall as rain, but higher elevations could see a
mix of rain and snow. Conditions dry out overnight with high
pressure building into the region along with a ridge. Temperatures
overnight will fall into the upper teens to mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure briefly builds in Wednesday night into Thursday,
while a developing low over the upper midwest strengthens
southwesterly flow and brings milder air into the region. With
above normal temperatures, precipitation on Thursday will fall
as rain and continue into Thursday night as the low tracks
north. A cold front moves through early Friday, allowing rain to
transition to a rain and snow mix or snow. Precipitation tapers
off by Friday evening, though some lingering snow showers are
still possible. Behind the system, brief lake effect snow may
develop east of Lake Ontario, ending by Saturday morning as high
pressure returns. Another weak system passing north over the
weekend on Sunday could bring a chance for light rain or snow to
parts of central NY and possibly northeastern PA.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Narrow bands of lake effect snow are coming off the Finger Lakes
early this morning in the cold northwest flow regime. ITH and
BGM should stay predominately IFR through sunrise, but the snow
may occasionally lighten up, with MVFR visibilities at times
(in between the more pronounced snow bands). ELM is on the
western edge of these lake effect snow bands, but could see
occasional MVFR visibilities in as a few steadier snow showers
drift down from the north through 13z. RME is expected to stay
mainly VFR through mid to late morning.

Beyond 12Z, a band of snow showers is expected to move across
SYR through the early afternoon hours, before lifting north and
exiting this terminal by around 18-19z. There is the potential
for IFR visby with this band during the 12-18z timeframe, with
visibility potentially at 1SM or even lower at times. The lake
effect snow band lifts north toward RME in the 18-22z time
period, as a weak frontal system also arrives. This will bring
the potential for tempo IFR visibility here.

A weak wave moving through is expected to keep ceiling
restrictions (and occasional light snow/MVFR visibility) in
place much of the afternoon, except for AVP. Then, as winds
start to turn southwesterly at the end of the TAF period,
ceilings should start to gradually lift, with widespread VFR
conditions expected after 23z; except later, after about 04z
Tuesday at RME.

Outlook...

Tuesday through early Wednesday.. Mainly VFR.

Wednesday...MVFR Ceilings possible across portions of Central NY.

Wednesday Night and Thursday...Mainly VFR expected over the area.

Thursday Night into Friday...Strong frontal passage with rain
showers, possibly mixing with or ending as snow showers along
with associated restrictions. LLWS possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     NYZ018.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ES
NEAR TERM...ES/MJM
SHORT TERM...ES
LONG TERM...ES
AVIATION...MJM