Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 181046
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
646 AM EDT Wed May 18 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and slightly warmer conditions are expected today as an
area of high pressure slides through the region. Morning sun
will give way to thickening clouds later today, ahead of a warm
front that will lift through the region with showers tonight
into Thursday. This front will open the door to much warmer
temperatures for Friday and Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
645 AM Update...
Frost advisory was cancelled early now that we are after
sunrise and temperatures are going up. Woodgate actually hit 33
in the far northeast corner of Oneida but is now 38 degrees.
Steuben County meanwhile had a few spots reach upper 30s; now
mostly 40-plus and rising.

Previous discussion...
Dry high pressure passes today, and then yields to a showery
warm front tonight and passing wave Thursday.

Frost Advisory remains in effect for Steuben and Northern Oneida
Counties. However, the amount of frost will likely be quite
patchy compared to earlier expectations. We had a final surprise
cluster of showers and clouds move through Oneida County prior
to 3 AM, which delayed the start of radiational cooling. Now,
scattered shallow bonus clouds have formed in the Finger Lakes
region and Steuben County, which is also limiting cooling. Lows
for most locations even in the Advisory counties will likely end
up mainly above 36 degrees, but sheltered valleys could still
manage patchy frost. Likewise, pockets of frost may occur in a
few other sheltered Central NY valleys but most locations will
be frost free.

We will start off with a mainly sunny sky this morning as high
pressure passes through the region. However, brisk zonal flow
aloft will quickly send a wave our way. The warm front of a
western Great Lakes low, will spread thickening high clouds into
the region this afternoon, followed by a batch of showers
tonight. As the associated surface low shoots from Lake Ontario
to New England on Thursday, a weak shallow front will swing
through with additional showers, though with better chances in
Central New York versus Northeast Pennsylvania where moisture
will be limited. Minor instability from a pocket of cooler air
aloft could even cause a couple thunderstorm cells. Overall
trend will be for things to dry out as the day carries on, with
highs of 60s-near 70 in Central NY and upper 60s-mid 70s in
Northeast PA. Rainfall totals for tonight through midday
Thursday will be generally two to four tenths of an inch;
heaviest for the NY Thruway counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
345 AM Update...

Dry weather is expected to return for Friday with the ridge building
overhead. Rising heights and a warming airmass will contribute to
temperatures climbing much higher than the previous day, with
morning lows in the upper 40s to lower 50s and highs well into the
70s and lower 80s. The ridge axis starts to shift east of the area
overnight, and while most of the area should stay dry, we will not
totally rule out a stray shower or weak thunderstorm across western
NY Friday night. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy skies with lows in
the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
330 AM Update...

Saturday, we will remain in the warm sector ahead of a cold front
that will slowly approach the area through the rest of the weekend.
Models to continue to converge on a solution that finally takes this
through sometime during the day Sunday, though precise timing is
still uncertain. This has implications for any convection Saturday,
as a lack of real forcing apart from any stray shortwaves could
result in any convection being more scattered and diurnally-driven.
Meanwhile, Sunday would feature our best chances for showers and
storms as the front finally moves through. Whether these can turn
stronger would depend on the timing of the frontal passage, as a
late night/early morning window would cause us to miss out on that
helpful daytime instability. However, this is still something to
keep an eye on, with as much as 30 to 40kts of deep layer shear
present as the front moves through.

The warming temperature trend will continue through Saturday with
highs climbing well into the 80s and even lower 90s. Temperatures
remain mild overnight, falling back only as far as the upper 50s and
lower 60s. However, we could see a fairly broad range in
temperatures for Sunday afternoon depending on the timing of the
frontal passage. Expect highs in the lower to mid 70s behind the
front, and lower to mid 80s out ahead of it in our southern and
eastern zones.

Lingering showers wrap up into Sunday night as the cold front exits
eastward and the upper trough swings through. A ridge then builds in
with dry weather to start the work week. Temperatures Monday will be
much cooler, with morning lows in the 40s and highs in the 60s. A
few showers may begin to move back in Tuesday as the surface high
moves east of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions will persist today. However, a warm front will
lift towards the terminals this evening, causing lowering
ceilings and eventual showers and restrictions. KAVP-KBGM-KELM
are likely to drop to an IFR ceiling towards dawn; KITH-KSYR-
KRME at least to fuel alternate required. Initial light
northwest wind will go variable this afternoon as high pressure
passes, then southeast 5-10 knots tonight.

Outlook...

Thursday...Frontal system finishes moving through with rain
showers and restrictions. Slight chance of thunder. Improving
conditions Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night through Friday night...Mainly VFR.

Saturday through Sunday...Increasing chances for showers-
thunderstorms and associated restrictions; best chance Sunday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...MDP


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