Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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966
FXUS61 KBGM 130209
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
909 PM EST Wed Dec 12 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak storm will pass through the region later tonight and
bring light snow to NY and PA through midday Thursday. A
stronger storm will drag rain and mixed precipitation into our
area late Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

910 PM UPDATE...Quiet this evening with clouds increasing from
west to east. Colder air and lower temps again over the eastern
and northern zones so have adjusted the hourly to reflect this.
Otherwise made some adjustments to the timing of the onset of
the light snow late tonight according to the latest short term
models. No other changes at this time.


155 PM update...

High pressure will attempt to nose northward this evening, but
another weak short wave will pass across the forecast area and
cause another round of light snow showers late overnight.

The best chance for snow accumulation will over the western and
southern portions of our region, where around an inch of new
snow is expected. A widespread half-inch of snow is forecast for
most of our counties. Temperatures will dip to between 20 and 25
degrees.

Snow will taper off during the morning hours on Thursday.
Partial clearing is expected with highs in the middle-30s.

Thursday night...Atlantic flow will undercut a New England
anticyclone. Due to the lack of ice crystals aloft, it appears
the most likely precipitation type will be patchy freezing
drizzle, mainly over our eastern counties. Temperatures will
fall to between 25 and 30 degrees.

10 AM update...

Weak, sheared lake effect snow showers and flurries continue
northeast of Lake Ontario. The extent of the activity is greater
than anticipated, with flurries making it into Wayne County PA.

We increased the coverage and duration of the very light snow
showers over the next 2-3 hours.

The latest grids are published.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
355 PM Update...

Not a lot of change for the short term period, model guidance
remains in their own respective camps, with the GFS still being
a wetter/further north outlier compared to other guidance. For
the official forecast used a blend, but leaned toward the more
consistent...drier ECMWF/CMC solution. 12z GFS also shifted
a little more south...thus lending more credence to the
faster/drier solution with little phasing between the northern
and southern streams. With that said, considering the operational
GFS still shows a period of moderate to even heavy rain
redeveloping over NE PA late Saturday night, thought it was
prudent to leave chance PoPs south of NY/PA border in case this
system wobbles north a bit. See below for more details.

Friday...Some lingering patchy freezing drizzle/drizzle may
continue into the mid morning hours over the higher terrain
south and east of Cortland--Towanda...especially in the Poconos
and Catskills.Then, dry conditions are expected until later in
the afternoon. System in the Gulf States may spread some light
rain across northeast pennsylvania and the southern tier toward
sunset. Highs will generally range from 40 to 45.

Friday night through Saturday...ECMWF continues to show no
phasing of the northern/southern streams and tracks the
vertically stacked system from the Gulf States to North Carolina
and off the coast. The GFS continues to lift the system farther
north into the mid Atlantic region. The GFS is slowly trending
toward the ECMWF solution. Friday night into Saturday morning
will likely be the wettest period with likely/categorical POPs
across the southern tier, western Catskills and NE PA...with
chance PoPs for light rain further north, toward the Finger
Lakes and NY Thruway corridor. Likely POPs Saturday morning in
the southeast forecast area and just chance elsewhere. By
Saturday afternoon just lingering chances for rain showers over
northeast PA and Sullivan county NY, while the rest of the area
dries out. Total rainfall Friday night into Saturday looks to
range from half to one inch across NE PA and Sullivan County...a
quarter to half inch for the twin tiers and a tenth of an inch
of less for the northern Finger Lakes and NY Thruway corridor.
Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid-30s to lower 40s. Highs
on Saturday reach the low to mid-40s

Saturday night: Still a chance for lingering showers or another
round of rain for NE PA, otherwise generally dry across Central
NY and the upper level low and surface low pass off the coast
well to our southeast. Cooler with lows in the lower to mid-30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
400 PM Update...Still a  lower confidence forecast as models
continue to show significant differences in the medium range.

Sunday the GFS would indicate a continued wet period as the
upper level low lifts into the mid Atlantic region. The ECMWF is
mainly dry with surface high pressure over the area. Will
continue to indicate chance POPs for rain showers across our far
southeast zones, with a slight chance further north and west
until models come into a better consensus. Highs on Sunday in
the upper 30s to lower 40s.

Sunday night - Tuesday...A fairly strong upper level wave drops
south toward our region. Looks mainly dry Sunday night, as the
actual back door cold front sweeps in from the north near
daybreak Monday (current model timing). The ECMWF has trended
stronger and further south/west with this feature...more toward
the GFS solution. Now most guidance shows 850mb temperatures
falling to around -8 to -10C Monday afternoon, then -15C Monday
night. Have a chance of snow showers in the forecast now Monday
through Tuesday as there will be some showers along the actual
front, but then also lake effect behind it in a northwest flow
pattern. Turning much colder with highs in the 30s Monday, then
falling into the upper 10s and 20s Monday night. Tuesday will
feature highs 25-35.

Tuesday night and Wednesday: A dry northerly flow takes over as
upper level ridging builds in from the west. Remaining cold with
a surface high overhead Tuesday night and good radiational
cooling conditions. Preliminary forecast shows lows in the 10s
north and east, with low to mid-20s for the southern tier and NE
PA. Expect a good diurnal rise in temperatures next Wednesday
with partly sunny skies. Highs mid to upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low moving from the GReat Lakes to central NY will spread MVFR
ceilings and visibilities across the area later tonight into
Thursday. Light snow will break out after midnight and continue
into midday. Loose surface gradient will result in relatively
light winds despite the passage of the system. Some improvement
to VFR is possible late in the period as the low moves east.

Outlook...

Thursday night through Friday...VFR.

Friday night through Saturday morning...Rain and likely
restrictions as a system moves through the region.

Saturday afternoon through Sunday...Smaller chance for showers
and associated restrictions. Low confidence.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/DJP
NEAR TERM...DGM/DJP
SHORT TERM...MJM/RRM
LONG TERM...MJM/RRM
AVIATION...DGM/DJP



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