Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS61 KBGM 192329
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
729 PM EDT Sun May 19 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue tonight.
Some of these storms may be strong. A few lingering showers and
thunderstorms are expected on Monday before a couple of dry
days Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
6 pm update...

Stripped off a couple of counties in the far west of CNY.
Intensity and coverage of the convection has diminished.

3 pm update...
watch continues with a pair of severe thunderstorm warnings for
Oneida county. More thunderstorms will move in from the
southwest. Thunderstorms have developed over central PA and will
continue as they move into the destabilizing airmass over our
area. Biggest severe threat will be the wind. Wind shear is
moderate. Still a weak cap over most of the area but above it
unstable with 1 to 2k cape. Lapse rates around 7. PWATs 1 to
1.5" providing ample moisture. Main concern is training across
the far north. Radar estimates 1 to 2 inches. In addition they
had a round of thunderstorms this morning in the same area.
Flash flooding possible. With dry mid layers and high CAPE
severe hail also possible. Also weak tornadoes could occur with
moderate low level shear. The severe threat continues into the
early evening. At that point there will be a lull then another
round comes in toward midnight ahead of the cold front. The cold
front slows as it gets into NEPA and the Catskills. This will be
the focus for more showers and thunderstorms Monday. This has
less stability than today but more forcing with upper level
height falls, a short wave, and jet dynamics. Showers will move
out in the evening.

For temperatures starting out very warm in the 80s this
afternoon. Warmest temperatures since last September. Making it
seem warmer are dewpoints in the 60s. With the cold front still
to the west tonight, temperatures will fall only into the 60s.
Monday again above normal but cooler than today. Highs low 70s
northwest to low 80s southeast. Monday night lows in the 40s.

204 PM Update...
Thunderstorms continue to develop in a moist and unstable
airmass across the region, especially in the vicinity of a warm
front located near the Thruway. With additional convection
expected to develop through the rest of the afternoon, a Severe
Thunderstorm Watch has been posted for the entire area until 9
PM. Updated ZFP has been issued.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
3 pm update...

High pressure at all levels builds in this period with dry air.
High temperatures mostly in the low and mid 60s. Low
temperatures again in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A large dome of high pressure will be over the southeast during
much of this period. At this time, it does not appear this high
pressure and associated upper level ridge will make it to our
region. This will set up a storm track around this high pressure
system, from the Plains to Great Lakes to Northeast. This will
result in a few separate passing waves during this timeframe,
which will bring some chances of showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms. That being said, it does not appear that any
particular day will be a complete washout (there will be plenty
of dry periods as well).

In terms of temperatures, Wednesday will likely be the coolest
day, with highs in the 60s. Thursday through Sunday will likely
have highs mostly in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
730 pm update...

Mainly VFR next 24 hours.

First exception will be brief MVFR restrictions in NY with
showers 3 to 6z. AVP may have some restrictions up to 02z in
thunderstorms.

Second exception will be some MVFR cigs in NY between 8 and 14z.
SYR will be mostly VFR with only a tempo for MVFR.

Another possibility is midday to early evening showers but not
expecting it to cause restrictions.

Southwest Winds at 5 to 10 kts tonight. Monday winds increase
to 10 to 15 kts with higher gusts by 15z.


Outlook...
Monday night through Wednesday...VFR with high pressure.

Thursday through Friday...Possible restrictions in showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...MPK/TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...TAC


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.