Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 202249
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
549 PM EST Wed Feb 20 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Dual low pressure systems will move through the region tonight
bringing a wintry mix. High pressure will build into the region
for a short duration on Friday before another low pressure
system brings the next round of precipitation later this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Two low pressure systems will continue tracking to the north. The
first area of low pressure will move the Great Lakes with the second
area of low pressure tracking up the east coast. Late this
afternoon, where precipitation is lightest it has been in the form
of a wintry mix. Areas of steadier precipitation, where snowflake
production is more efficient, precipitation has been in the form of
snow. Based on the observations, the primary changeover line is
near Avoca and stretches westward toward Bradford. This line should
come northeastward late this afternoon and evening. However,
precipitation types may still change a bit based on intensity. Given
lighter precipitation on average this afternoon this forecast lowers
snowfall totals for the remainder of the day quite a few locations
in the Southern Tier northward could see less than an inch of snow.

Temperatures will continue to warm throughout the night as well.
Leaned toward the NAM-hires with the temperatures which gets most
locations to freezing gradually through the overnight with the 700-
800 mb layer warming above freezing early in the evening. With that
said, precipitation tonight should change from freezing rain to
rain. Lowered QPF amounts given the continued dry air in place.
Still a tenth of an inch in glaze could occur in a few spots leading
to slick surfaces. The winter weather advisory will continue given
the threat for incing.

With a few breaks in the clouds and continued warm air advection
Thursday highs should get well into the 40`s. Some lingering light
lake effect precipitation is possible focused in Oneida county
through Thursday night. Any additional snow accumulation looks to be
minor.  With a increased pressure gradient from the departing lows
and approaching high some westerly wind gusts of around 20-25 mph
are likely tomorrow afternoon which matches projections from bufkit.
Clearing will continue to be slow Thursday night with temperatures
falling back into the mid 20`s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure extending from the Great Lakes will keep our
weather clear for Friday and Friday night. Temperatures will peak
between 35 and 40 degrees on Friday, then fall into the upper-teens
and lower-20s Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Saturday...A powerful storm spinning into the Ohio Valley will
spread mixed precipitation into our southern forecast area Saturday
morning. Temperatures will climb into the 40s during the day and
change the precipitation to rain as it spreads across the region.
Colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a mix of rain and
sleet to fall, especially along and east of I-81.

Sunday...The cyclone will track into Northern Michigan on Sunday and
pull very mild air and rain showers into NY and PA. Temperatures
will climb above 50 degrees by Sunday afternoon before the cyclone
drags a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain
showers over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold
front will be accompanied by very gusty winds. Stay tuned for
statements regarding the potential wind event.

Monday and Tuesday...Polar air behind the cyclone will pour
into NY and PA during this period. Scattered lake effect snow
showers are anticipated. A weak wave moving through the Mid-
Atlantic will bring a chance for widespread light snow Tuesday
night.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

A mix of sleet, freezing rain, and wet snow will keep a mix of
MVFR and IFR restrictions over the terminals for much of the
overnight period. In addition, a low level jet will create LLWS
conditions, mainly between 03z and 10z. The lowest ceilings and
visibilities will be at KBGM, where ceiling heights will remain
below 1000 feet through early Thursday.

Precipitation will continue through the overnight period and
taper off as light rain showers after midnight when temperatures
warm above freezing. Ceilings and visibilities will slowly rise
by dawn. VFR conditions are expected for most of the afternoon
when drier air arrives.

West winds will gust around 20 knots on Thursday.


Outlook...

Thursday night...VFR except at KRME where lake effect snow is
possible.

Friday and Saturday...VFR under high pressure.

Saturday night through Monday...Restrictions likely with rain,
perhaps a brief wintry mix at the start through Sunday. Ceilings
slowly improving on Monday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for PAZ038>040-
     043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Thursday for NYZ009-
     015>018-022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MWG
NEAR TERM...BJT/MWG
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...DJP


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