Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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762
FXUS61 KBGM 261524
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1124 AM EDT Tue Mar 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Sprawling Canadian high pressure will build into the region
today, and pass directly overhead tonight into Wednesday. This
will result in clear skies and chilly conditions through early
Wednesday. However, a warming trend will occur for the rest of
the week, along with an increasing chance for showers from
Thursday afternoon into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1115 AM Update...Minor tweaks to the near term sky, wind and
temperature grids, otherwise the forecast remains on track. High
pressure will provide crystal clear skies for the rest of today
and into this evening. A few high level cirrus clouds will move
through overnight. Slightly breezy north winds 8-15 mph this
afternoon become light and variable overnight as high pressure
moves directly overhead. Colder than average temperatures
persist today and tonight; with highs in the 30s to low 40s
south...and lows in the 10s.


205 AM Update...
The near term will feature very quiet and dry conditions,
thanks to a large Canadian high working its way into the region
today and persisting tonight through Wednesday.

A clear sky is expected for the next 36 hours. For today we
will be on the front end of the building high, with anticyclonic
north-northwest flow advecting in a chilly and very dry air
mass. Winds go basically calm tonight with ideal radiational
cooling, followed by a light south-southwest return flow just
getting going by Wednesday afternoon. Highs today will be
mainly mid 30s-lower 40s, followed by teens for lows tonight. A
few of the most sheltered valleys, as well as parts of northern
Oneida county, could even sneak briefly into single digits. A
cold dawn Wednesday will be followed by moderating temperatures
of the return flow, which along with sunshine will boost highs
into the upper 40s-lower 50s. That will be just the beginning of
the warming trend that will continue into later this week.

In early Spring, it is typical for the models to struggle with
dewpoints by not mixing down enough of the very dry air above
the subsidence inversion, such as the case the next couple of
days. Thus, expect a diurnal range even slightly wider than
guidance suggests, as well as relative humidity levels even
lower than the already dry models both afternoons. Minimum
relative humidity are anticipated to hit mostly 20s to near 30
percent range today, and upper teens-mid 20s percent on
Wednesday. Let this serve as a reminder to make sure you adhere
to any local county or state fire regulations; for example the
usual NY State Spring burn ban which has been in effect since
March 16. We are just getting into the time of year, when brush
fires can carelessly occur during dry periods before green-up
in dead grass and old leaf litter. One thing helping us out, is
that there is still snowpack at higher elevations including some
of the Poconos to Catskills, and over into the Tug Hill area of
Oneida County NY. But keep in mind that lower elevations will
become more sensitive as dry weather persists.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
After a quiet Wednesday night, the models bring a low pressure
system through Ontario Province on Thursday and spread mild
temperatures and rain showers across NY and PA. Highs will reach
the 50s.

Colder air behind the storm will allow snow to mix with the rain
showers over our far northern forecast area, though little to
no accumulation is expected.

Southwest flow ahead of a storm advancing toward the Ohio
Valley will push temperatures to between 55 and 60 on Friday
from the Twin Tiers southward. Additional shower activity is
expected through Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A low pressure system will move over Lake Erie on Saturday and
pull mild air and scattered showers into NY and PA. Temperatures
are forecast to climb well into the 60s.

A cold front will push across our region Saturday night. The
models are inconsistent with the timing, and thus a large
temperature range remains possible for Sunday. At this point, it
appears temperatures will reach well into the 40s Saturday
night, then begin to fall before sunrise when the cold front
passes. If this forecast holds, Sunday will be raw with
temperatures struggling through the 30s during the afternoon.
Should the cold front come in slower, we could easily surpass 55
degrees in the warm sector Sunday.

A deep Canadian trough will drop across NY and PA on Monday with
scattered rain and snow showers and colder than normal
temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Dry high pressure will build into the region, with light
northwest to north winds on its front end today before becoming
light and variable in the evening. Clear sky and VFR.

Outlook...

Wednesday through at least midday Thursday...VFR.

Late Thursday through Saturday...Intermittent restrictions
possible as chances of showers occur along a stalling front.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP/MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/MDP
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...MDP



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