319
FXUS61 KBGM 172202
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
602 PM EDT Mon Mar 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool conditions are expected tonight before a return to
unseasonably warm air Tuesday and Wednesday under plenty of sun.
The next cold front will move through the area on Thursday,
which will bring more rain showers to the area, followed by much
cooler conditions for Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

6 PM Update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track. Clouds are clearing from the
west a little faster than forecast as high pressure builds in.
Decreased cloud cover based on latest METSAT and trends.

For tomorrow, mostly sunny skies are expected with dry
conditions. Forecast soundings indicate very dry air from 925 mb
and extending above 850 mb. With mixing tomorrow afternoon,
this dry air will mix down to the surface and relative humidity
will drop as low as 20 to 25%. Updated the Min RH forecast for
tomorrow afternoon to capture this, as there are several
prescribed burns scheduled. Winds should remain fairly light
tomorrow,with max gusts only at 10 to 15 mph during the
peak heating hours in the afternoon.

230 PM update...

Main concerns in the near term are focused on the very light
snow showers tapering off this afternoon, the relatively cold
air developing tonight before a return to mild conditions on
Tuesday with quiet/dry weather through Tue night.

Synoptic setup this afternoon continues to be defined by the
departing upper wave parallel to the East Coast. This primary
wave was the main forcing mechanism for the showers and storms
yesterday. There is also a trailing embedded short wave that
rolled across NY/central PA this morning which combined with a
shallow layer of mid level f-gen and incoming cold air to
produce the scattered snow showers we saw earlier today, but
with minimal to no accumulation.

The air mass coming in this afternoon has been defined by 850mb
temperatures in the -8 to -10 deg C range, which when combined
with relatively warm Lake Ontario water temperatures is allowing
for the production of some very light/thin lake effect snow
bands into and downstream of the Finger Lakes.

Later this evening the lingering light snow showers will come
to an end as the drier air moves in and the 850mb ridge axis
slides eastward.

Breezy NW winds this afternoon (10 to 25 mph) will back to the
southwest and diminish later tonight. Skies will clear as well,
which will lead to favorable conditions for efficient
radiational cooling. Temperatures are expected to fall into the
lower to mid 20s...and a few upper teens cannot be ruled out in
the Catskills, Tug Hill and high elevation regions of Steuben
County.

The quiet weather will continue through the day tomorrow with
temperatures climbing into the mid 50s to lower 60s under mostly
sunny skies and light winds. Dew points in the upper teens and
20s will combine with the warm air to produce RH values in the
25 to 30 pct range. Conditions will become more favorable for
potential fire spread on Wednesday.

Temperatures on Tuesday night will drop into the mid 30s to
lower 40s with high clouds moving in from the west but overall
dry/quiet conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...
Dry warm and breezy conditions Wednesday will give way to wet
conditions from our next system as we head into Thursday.

Deep southwest flow will get going Wednesday, well ahead of our
next approaching frontal system. Warm air advection will boost
temperatures up some more, but moisture will be much slower to
arrive. The lowest 15000 feet shows a gaping hole in the
soundings between temperature and dewpoint, indicative of plenty
of dry air that will be able mix down during the day. Forecast
was adjusted towards lowest end of guidance for dewpoints, and
on the high end for temperatures. This should easily send
relative humidity values into the upper 20s-mid 30s range. This
along with increasing southerly winds, with gust of 20-30 mph
for much of the area, could pose a more fire weather-sensitive
afternoon if fine fuels like dead grass and leaf litter manage
to dry out enough during the prior rain-free 1-2 days. Highs
will be well into 60s; even a few spots to 70 degrees,
particularly for the NY Thruway corridor courtesy of
downsloping winds. This will be followed by mild conditions
Wednesday night with increasing high clouds and lows in the 40s
to near 50; exception being Poconos-Catskills in the upper 30s.

Frontal system will pass through Thursday-Thursday night. It
will be at least of a similar flavor to the past weekend system
in terms of track and progression but not nearly as strong. All
told, a few to several tenths of an inch or rain; heaviest east
of I-81 where it could reach around a half inch. Instability
will exist when it is well upwind in the Midwest but that
greatly wanes or even eliminates itself by the time it gets to
our region, so thunder appears doubtful. Also, winds will be as
strong with this system; perhaps a few gusts to 35 mph in the
heavier showers but generally peaking at 20-30 mph. Cold air
advection Thursday night could actually get some of the rain to
mix with/change over to wet snow on this way out into early
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
255 PM Update...
One trough lifts out Friday, and another drops in over the
weekend; however, limited moisture will mean low chances of
precipitation.

If any precipitation is still hanging back first thing Friday
morning as the exiting yet slowing trough is heading out, there
could still be a little wet snow yet only minor if any
accumulations, in our higher terrain mostly east of I-81. Friday
itself will feature chilly northwest winds and highs of mid
30s-lower 40s; slightly short of average.

Temperatures bounce back a bit Saturday as temporary ridging
gets us to upper 40s-mid 50s. However, a flattening wave will
mean at least a small chance of showers late in the day. Any
showers will have to fight wide dewpoint depressions, so amounts
if any will be light.

In the wake of the wave late Saturday, another shot of cool air
advection will bounce temperatures back into the upper 30s-upper
40s for Sunday, but dry weather is figured until our next system
approaches for Monday. Either a digging trough or even upper low
is projected to advance into the region early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A widespread deck of MVFR/fuel alternate required ceilings
remain in place behind the long-departed cold front from
yesterday. The drier air and clearing will arrive later this
evening but until then MVFR ceilings will persist. A return to
VFR conditions is expected to arrive later in the evening. Clear
skies will dominate the region tonight and through at least 18Z
Tuesday.

Gusty NW winds 10 to 20 kt are possible through 03Z this evening
before backing to the southwest around 5 kt or less through
tonight and into Tue morning.

Outlook...

Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday...Occasional restrictions possible along with scattered
rain showers.

Friday...Occasional restrictions possible with scattered snow
and rain showers.

Saturday...Another round of light rain showers possible with
occasional/intermittent restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for NYZ009-037.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...BJG/BJT