Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 110208
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1008 PM EDT Mon May 10 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Partly cloudy skies and cool temperatures will remain over the
area through Tuesday morning. On Tuesday afternoon, a front
will spread scattered showers into NY and PA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
10 PM update...

Some cloud cover is keeping temperatures from dropping too
quickly in some areas, however, where skies have cleared,
temperatures have already fallen into the low 40s. With clouds
expected to be scattered across the region overnight, it is
likely that some locations will stay a bit warmer than
currently is forecast, but still think that multiple spots
should dip into the low to mid 30s. Only changes made at this
time was to update hourly temperatures to align with current
obs, as clouds have kept temperatures about 10 degrees warmer
compared to locations that have already cleared.

620 PM update...

Forecast remains mostly on-track and only some minor tweaks were
made to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations.
Weather should be quiet through the overnight, but temperatures
will be chilly. Current dew point temperatures are in the low
30s across most of the region and after sunset, areas that lose
the clouds tonight will radiate out fairly quickly. Should
easily see widespread lows in the low to mid 30s by tomorrow
morning.

Previous Discussion...
A persistent trough parked over the northeastern corner of the
US will keep unsettled weather and cool temperatures over NY and
PA through Tuesday.

As a cold front exits the eastern seaboard tonight, skies will
partially clear overnight. Unseasonably chilly air is forecast
to slide across our forecast area with 925 mb temperatures
around 1C along the NY/PA border. As winds slacken overnight,
temperatures will fall into the lower and middle 30s, allowing
frost to form across most of our forecast counties. As a result,
a frost advisory is now in effect tonight through Tuesday
morning.

Breaks of sun are expected through midday Tuesday before another
frontal system approaches. This storm will affect our region
late Tuesday afternoon and overnight. Given the amount of cold
air aloft and above average mid-level lapse rates, we wouldn`t
be surprised if showers produce graupel late Tuesday.

A few of the colder locations will see rain mix with wet snow
Tuesday night. No accumulation is expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Only minor changes to the previous forecast blending in some of
the new ensemble data.

Cyclonic flow around the translating trough will continue to be
felt Wednesday with gusty northwesterly winds, but the
atmospheric column will dry out with plenty of sunshine by later
in the day Wednesday. Some clouds though may hang on through the
morning though. High will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. With
plenty of mixing wind gusts look to top out at around 20 mph.
The mixing will also lead to dewpoints ranging on the low end
of the ensemble guidance but RH values should stay over 30%.



High pressure will be centered over the western Great Lakes
Wednesday and Wednesday night, but will press eastward over our
region Thursday-Thursday night. The slackening gradient will
allow winds to easily decouple Wednesday night, under a clear
sky. The resultant radiational cooling of a very dry air mass is
likely to yield frost for much of the area as temperatures dive
into the 30s; in some cases approaching freezing. This will be
the night for which protective action on vulnerable seasonal
plants/new gardens will need to especially be considered.
However, some uncertainty is still present about how strong the
wind will be with some of the model guidance showing a more
sustained wind around 5-10 mph. This would have a limiting
factor on frost formation.

A dry day with light wind and a mostly sunny sky is anticipated
with high pressure arriving Thursday. Daytime temperatures will
reach into the 60s; within a few degrees of climatology.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 AM Update...
Though mostly dry, due to a relative lack of moisture,
a few diurnally-driven showers and isolated thunder will
possible Friday through Sunday during the afternoons.

Surface high pressure will be amorphous over the general region,
yet that will compete with weak passing waves aloft through
Sunday. Those waves along with daytime heating could provide
enough instability for a few pop-up showers in the afternoons as
we head into the weekend. Coverage of those showers will
probably be quite limited with dewpoints only in the upper 30s-
lower 40s, and so most of the area and time will be dry. An
isolated thunderstorm also cannot totally be ruled out, but
likely weak if anything. Ensemble guidance is favoring higher
terrain locations in the Western Catskills for the highest
shower chances. Highs in the 60`s and lows in the 40`s.

Timing uncertainties on the next cold frontal boundary and if it
impacts the region Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions prevail tonight and for much of Tuesday. Clouds
are breaking up this evening, with just some lingering high
clouds over the area later tonight into Tuesday morning.
Scattered midlevel clouds develop into the afternoon again as a
frontal system brings in a chance for some scattered showers.
Some brief drops to MVFR conditions would be possible where any
heavier showers can occur, though the timing of restrictions at
any one terminal is fairly uncertain.


Outlook...

Tuesday night...Restrictions possible with a passing front
Tuesday night.

Wednesday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday through Saturday...Dry northwest flow with quiet
weather conditions, perhaps an afternoon shower Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for PAZ038>040-043-044-
     047-072.
NY...Frost Advisory until 8 AM EDT Tuesday for NYZ009-015>018-
     022>025-036-037-044>046-055>057-062.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP/MPK
SHORT TERM...MDP/MWG
LONG TERM...MDP/MWG
AVIATION...HLC


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