Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 251056
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
656 AM EDT Fri Sep 25 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry conditions into the weekend with summer like
temperatures. The weather pattern becomes more unsettled
Monday and Tuesday with showers and possible thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
334 am update...
Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the patchy fog
this morning, the unseasonably warm temperatures today, the
potential for more fog tonight, and a few light rain showers
from the Poconos into the southern Catskills Saturday afternoon.

Decaying warm front draped from Lake Huron across Lake Ontario
into nrn NY will continue to wash out as it lifts to the north
this morning. Any lingering rain showers will dissipate quickly.
Cloud cover across the northern counties and over wrn NY will
also dissipate as they move into a drier air mass to the east.
Clear skies over much of central NY and ne PA has lead to
another episode of early morning cold air drainage in the
valleys with resulting areas of valley fog. Temperatures this
morning are not as cold as previous morning...only into the
lower to mid 50s, but the increased amt of low level moisture
and development of a low level inversion just above the valley
floors has prompted the formation of fog once again this
morning.

Temperatures will warm quickly after sunrise with mostly sunny
skies leading to afternoon highs in the upper 70s and lower
80s...some 10 to 15 deg above normal for this time of year.

Upper level ridging ahead of a passing short wave through the
mid Atlantic region tonight will lead to more broad large scale
suppression over the forecast area, and likely another night of
valley fog. Temperatures will fall into the 50s by early Sat
morning.

Cloud cover associated with the wave to the south will move in
after sunrise Saturday morning...and thicken through the day
especially across ne PA. Areas of the Finger Lakes and the wrn
Mohawk Valley may see a bit more sun during the day, which will
aid in temperatures climbing into the upper 70s in this area.
Portions of ne PA and the srn Catskills are expected to only
reach into the upper 60s to mid 70s. There is also a low chance
of scattered light rain showers across ne PA and the Catskills
Saturday afternoon. Confidence remains on the low side for any
widespread measurable rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
330 AM Update...

The remainder of the weekend will remain mild with southwest return
flow over the region as high pressure will be centered over the
western Atlantic. Models continue to suggest some light QPF over our
southeastern zones Saturday night into early Sunday, perhaps due to
marine layer moisture moving inland. The rest of the day Sunday will
be mainly dry, though clouds linger across northeast PA and the
Catskills with that moisture in place. Otherwise, expect
temperatures starting in the upper 50s and lower 60s to peak in the
70s to lower 80s. A tightening pressure gradient across the area as
a result of a surface low moving through Quebec will lead to breezy
conditions during the afternoon.

Chances for scattered showers work back in Sunday night as an upper
trough deepens across the north central US. Temperatures stay mild
with cloudy skies and a warm airmass in place, bottoming out in the
upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
330 AM Update...

A wet weather pattern is expected for the first half of the work
week as a trough digs into the Upper Midwest. Embedded shortwaves
ahead of this feature will touch off chances for showers and some
thunder Monday with some weak elevated instability. Stray showers
may linger Monday night into Tuesday morning, but then better
chances for showers and thunder return later Tuesday afternoon as
another shortwave rotating around the deepening Great Lakes upper
low drags a cold front through the area. Much of the guidance has
the steadiest rain moving out of the area by 6Z Wednesday, but
chances for stray showers linger through the remainder of the
extended period with the trough still sprawled out over the
region.

A quick cooling trend is expected into next week. Temperatures
remain mild for Monday, peaking in the 70s and possibly lower 80s,
but coming in cooler Tuesday with rain across the area. Behind the
front, temperatures Wednesday and Thursday should only peak in the
60s, possibly closer to 70F in the Wyoming valley. Overnight lows in
the 60s Monday night drop into the 40s Wednesday and Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure and dry air mass in place this morning producing
clear skies which has lead to valley fog. This fog will impact
KELM through about 13Z. All other forecast terminals will remain
VFR through the next 24 hours. High pressure lifts through the
area this afternoon. Quiet weather will persist through tonight
with light south/sw winds. Another round of valley fog at KELM
is likely late tonight and early Saturday morning.

Outlook...
Saturday into Sunday...Atlantic moisture moves in from the
southwest with maybe some sprinkles for AVP. MVFR likely AVP and
south central NY. VFR at SYR/RME.

Sunday night into Tuesday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms
may lead to occasional restrictions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...HLC
LONG TERM...HLC
AVIATION...BJT/TAC


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