Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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545
FXUS61 KBGM 151449
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1049 AM EDT Wed Aug 15 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief high pressure building across the region will provide a
relatively quiet period of weather today into Thursday morning
before another frontal boundary with showers and storms moves
through Thursday afternoon into Friday night. Conditions turn
dry and quiet again this weekend into early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM update...
Convection is possible this afternoon/evening but weak forcing
and a weak mid level cap will limited coverage to isolated. In
northern Oneida county the chances will be better as a surface
trough passes through northern New York State during the late
afternoon/early evening period.

430 am update...

Main concerns in the near term remain focused on the potential
for fog this morning...isolated showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon/evening...and the possibility for more fog late
tonight.

Large cutoff upper low that brought the heavy rain the past
several days is currently becoming an open wave as it moves to
the ne and phases into the broad large scale cyclonic flow.
Rain showers have ended for the most part, with the exception of
a few light showers over the Catskills. In the wake of the
exiting system, ridging aloft and a weak surface high are
building into wrn NY/PA this morning, along with a much drier
air mass. Skies are clearing out from west to east...which is
allowing for fairly rapid sfc cooling and creating favorable
conditions for fog this morning. Will likely see a couple hours
of fog just before sunrise...and improvement a couple hours
after sunrise with the start of a very pleasant day.

Temperatures will rise into the lower to mid 80s under mostly
sunny skies late morning into the early afternoon. Residual low
level moisture from the recent rains combined with a weak short
wave passing ewd across the nrn Great Lakes into nrn NY and nrn
New England will likely create an afternoon cumulus field across
a good portion of the forecast area. There is a chance of a few
showers and thunderstorms later today into the early evening
hours...mainly north of a line from Ithaca to Cooperstown, but
isolated weak convection cannot be ruled out anywhere today. A
relatively dry deep layer and weak shear will keep organized
storms to a minimum.

Convection is expected to subside quickly this evening as the
boundary layer collapses and stabilizes. A weak inversion just
above the surface combined with some clearing again will help
create favorable conditions for fog once again tonight. Lows
tonight will only drop into the mid 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
430 am update...

Area of concern in the short term is focused on the next low
pressure system expected to impact the Northeast later in the
day Thursday through the day Friday and Friday night.

The first round of showers and thunderstorms is expected
Thursday afternoon/evening along a warm front lifting north from
the mid-Atlantic/Ohio Valley region into NY/PA. A strong push of
warm humid air will accompany the warm front and combine with a
lead s/w embedded in the flow and several hundred J/kg of ML
CAPE to produce scattered convection. The threat for severe
weather is low due to a real lack of deep layer shear to support
significant organization. However, tall skinny CAPE profiles and
weak steering flow, combined with PWATs 1.75 to 2 inches will
make favorable conditions for heavy rain. The threat for heavy
rain with only a couple days of recovery from recent rainfall
and flooding...could potentially lead to more flooding
issues...mainly late evening Thursday and Thursday night.

The threat for showers and storms will persist into Friday as
the stretched out low pressure system drags it`s way to the
east/ne. The main upper s/w associated with the parent trough
will begin to rotate through the Great Lakes on Friday...and as
it swings across NY/PA Friday afternoon/night the threat for
severe weather ticks up a few notches. The incoming wave will
act to create a more favorably sheared environment, and also
give some storm motion to the convection which will help
mitigate the flooding threat from slow-moving storms. However,
PWATs will still be around 1.75, with deep convective storms
potentially producing heavy rain. So, the flash flooding threat
may linger well into Friday night before the drier air punches
in on the back side of the system.

Will need to monitor closely the model trends with this next
system Thur/Friday as it likely won`t take much to cause hydro
issues.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3 AM update...

Little change to the forecast. Models in better agreement.
Temperatures near seasonable levels with highs from the mid 70s to
low 80s and lows mid 50s to mid 60s.

Friday night to Saturday a surface cold front and upper level trough
moves through with showers and thunderstorms. Best chance of
anything will be Friday evening.

Better chance of a break in the rain Saturday night to Monday night
now. Models have a weak surface high and weak upper level ridge
then. Maybe isolated afternoon showers Sunday in south central NY
and NE PA otherwise dry.

Tuesday to Wednesday scattered showers and thunderstorms as a cold
front and upper level trough move into the area.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low clouds and fog have developed across the region...mainly fog
in the valleys and low clouds elsewhere from ne PA into the wrn
Catskills and Oneida county. Should see fog and low clouds lift
and mix out fairly quickly this morning...by 14Z. VFR
conditions are expected late morning and this afternoon with
possibly a few scattered showers or weak thunderstorms. Still
too uncertain about timing and location, so have left out of the
latest TAFs. Winds will increase out of the west/nw this
afternoon with gusts up to 20 kt. Winds will decrease after 01Z
this evening with conditions remaining VFR through 06Z Thur. Fog
is possible again tonight. Winds might be a bit stronger and
the air mass may be too dry for fog...so not as confident in fog
tonight, but cannot be completely ruled out.

Outlook...

Thursday...Primarily VFR after morning fog with possible
restrictions in showers and storms in the late afternoon and
evening.

Thursday night through Friday night...Restrictions possible due
to showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday/Sunday...Primarily VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT
NEAR TERM...BJT/RRM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/DJP



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