Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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429
FXUS61 KBGM 191956
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
356 PM EDT Thu Apr 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Cold northwest flow with continue through Friday with scattered
snow showers and flurries. The snow showers will be most
widespread late this afternoon into the early evening. Any snow
accumulations will be an inch or less. The weekend will be
mostly sunny with gradual warming.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level trough combined with fairly steep lapse rates and
diurnal heating will keep snow showers and flurries across
central New York and the northern tier of Pennsylvanian through
early evening. Later tonight the snow showers will be more
confined to areas downwind of Lake Ontario as temperatures drop
enough for lake enhanced snow showers under 320 flow. Overnight
snow accumulations will generally be an inch or less except for
the higher elevations in southern Onondaga/Madison counties
where the snow could approach 2 inches. Overnight lows will
range from the middle 20s to around 30.

On Friday, cyclonic upper level flow, low level moisture and
temperatures at 850mb still cold enough for lake enhancement
activity will continue scattered snow showers and flurries
across central New York but mainly confined to areas southeast
of Lake Ontario. The snow showers will mix with rain during the
afternoon as boundary layer temperatures warm. Highs will range
from the middle 30s to around 40.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Friday night through Sunday will be a dry period with gradual
warming. Skies will be mostly sunny both Saturday and Sunday as
surface high pressure resides over the eastern Great Lakes.
Highs Saturday will range from the mid 40s to around 50 with
Sunday in the upper 40s to lower 50s. The valley areas of
northeast Pennsylvania will be in the upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
315 pm update... Overall, a blocky regime at the upper levels is
progged to continue well into next week. Temperatures look
milder than we`ve experienced recently (closer to normal for
late April).

At the start of the period (Monday and Tuesday), an upper ridge
axis over the eastern states should keep our weather dry, with
daily highs moderating back into the 50s-lower 60s.

More uncertainty creeps in towards the middle of the week. The
key focal point appears to be exactly how the interaction
between an approaching northern stream disturbance from the
west and a southern stream one moving up along the east coast
plays out. For now, we`re continuing to advertise a chance of
showers Tuesday night-Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
For the NYS terminals cold northwest flow will keep scattered
snow showers across the area through early evening with the most
restrictive conditions expected late this afternoon into early
evening. In general, low VFR with occasional MVFR snow showers
are expected through late afternoon. Then conditions will lower
to MVFR/Alternate Required this evening with occasional IFR
snow showers through early evening. Conditions will slowly
improve Friday morning to low VFR/MVFR. At KAVP, mixed rain/snow
will continue through late afternoon in Alternate Required
conditions. MVFR ceilings will continue overnight in scattered
flurries/sprinkles this evening. Conditions will improve to low
VFR by Friday mid morning.

Northwest winds at 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots through
early evening and again on Friday by late morning.

Outlook...

Friday night...Brief mostly minor restrictions possible in
scattered snow showers.

Saturday through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...RRM
LONG TERM...BJT/MLJ
AVIATION...RRM



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