Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 081327

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
927 AM EDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Smoke will become less dense as it shifts west and as a result,
visibilities will improve. An upper level low in eastern New England
will bring scattered light rain showers to the region today through
the start of the weekend. There will be a better chance for more
widespread showers early next week.



930 AM Update...

Minor changes were made to temperatures to blend in current
observations. Scattered showers and drizzle continues to make
their way through our area, therefore no update was made to
Pops. Previous forecast remains on track for now.

640 AM Update...

Some scattered showers and areas of drizzle continue to move
through the region this morning. Visibilities remain reduced due
to smoke/haze/fog though those are expected to improve later
this morning. The major change with this update was dropping
temperatures in NEPA where skies were clear for most of the
night. Temperatures fell into the mid 30s to low 40s there, so
conditions will start off chillier and be slower to warm up than
previously forecasted. With the highs already forecasted below
guidance, these were left unchanged for now, but it will be
worth monitoring how quickly temps can warm up despite some
lingering smoke and cloud cover today.

345 AM Update...

Scattered showers and areas of drizzle have re-developed early this
morning as expected. An embedded upper shortwave, part of the upper
low that continues to remain stationary over the Northeast, will
push the first round of showers southward this morning, though these
showers may dissipate as they approach the drier air over the
southern portions of NEPA. HRRR model guidance continues to show
that the lingering smoke will finally become less dense as the
highest concentrations will drift west throughout the day. This will
lead to improved visibilities at the surface. Guidance shows that
elevated smoke will be slower to clear out, so hazy skies will still
be a possibility. Because of this, daytime temperatures were
decreased slightly below guidance by blending in the cooler HRRR
with NBM and Conshort guidance. Highs will once again only be in the

Another shortwave moves through this afternoon, kicking off another
round of scattered showers. With the smoke clearing and limited
instability present, this round of showers may be more convective
than the initial round. However, expected QPF amounts are still low
and because the showers will be scattered, many may not see a
raindrop at all today. Isolated thunderstorms will also be possible
this afternoon.

While hazy conditions may continue through the evening, conditions
will continue to improve overnight tonight as the smoke
concentrations also improve. Model soundings show a shallow, yet
weak inversion near the surface tonight which would favor patchy fog
in the valleys early Friday morning. Partly to mostly cloud cover is
expected, so confidence is low in fog development. Overnight
temperatures will fall into the 40s.

The aforementioned upper low will continue to have an impact on the
region on Friday as it sends another shortwave through. This
shortwave will bring another round of showers to the region. With
improved sky conditions, instability will be greater but shear is
lacking. Still, isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be
possible, especially in the afternoon hours. While still under
northerly flow, temperatures will once again stay in the 60s, though
some valley locations in NEPA may just reach the 70s.


3:30 AM Update...

The upper level low begins to move off to the NE Friday night with
flow briefly out of the NNW that could bring in some more smoke for
late Friday night into Saturday. Luckily the NNW flow does not last
long as a trough begins to dig into the western Great Lakes helping
flow become more westerly and eventually southwesterly in the low
levels later Saturday. Models have trended towards stronger ridging
over us for Saturday as that trough digs so forecast soundings
indicate more capping likely so chances of showers and thunderstorms
were lowered across most of the region. The highest chances have
been kept around the Catskills with the higher terrain.

For Saturday night into Sunday, there has been a big trend towards
the digging trough becoming a cut off low over the upper Midwest so
that likely keeps us under the ridge. Chances of precipitation for
Sunday were lowered greatly from the previous forecast to mostly
just a slight chance and if the trend continues to stronger ridging,
chances of precipitation may have to be removed entirely.


3:30 AM Update...

There is finally a better looking chance at some meaningful rain in
the long term. With the trend towards a cut off low, odds have
increased of a slow moving surface low that develops across the Ohio
River Vally early next week. Strong southerly flow develops ahead of
the low helping to advect deep moisture with PWATs in ensemble means
getting over 1.5 inches which is some of the highest values we have
seen since the April rain. As of now, the biggest uncertainty is the
speed at which the front moves through or if a weak coastal low is
able to form as the interior low occludes. The EPS has trended
towards a widespread 1 inch or more of QPF across much of our region
while the GEFS is a little lower with the mean QPF down around 0.75
to an inch. Almost all ensemble members have precipitation early
next week with uncertainty on timing.

Once the shortwave moves through late next week, flow becomes
northerly again and if the fires in Quebec are still active after
some of the rain this week, we could be dealing with some smoke
again. At least with the early week rain, odds are there will be
better evapotranspiration so with the upper level trough overhead,
it will be easier to develop some afternoon instability so chances
of precipitation were kept for each afternoon late next week.


Widespread smoke over the region will keep visibilities reduced
through the mid to late morning hours. As the smoke begins to
drift west, visibilities will improve. Ceilings will fluctuate
between Fuel Alt and MVFR at most NY terminals this morning.
All terminals are expected to be back up to VFR by the early
afternoon. Guidance is hinting at lowered ceilings early Friday
morning, so MVFR was mentioned at the NY terminals for now.

Multiple rounds of rain scattered rain showers are expected
today. The first will be this morning with more to follow
throughout the afternoon. These will mainly impact the NY
terminals. If a shower were to pass directly over a terminal,
then brief restrictions may be possible. Confidence was too low
to include showers at AVP as they may dissipate before getting
that far south.

North-northwesterly winds will be fairly light throughout this
TAF period.


Friday through Saturday...Mostly VFR; Chance for showers each
day, which may lead to brief restrictions.

Sunday through Monday...Possible restrictions in showers late
Sunday into Monday.




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