Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 211137
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
637 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building across the northeast will bring clearing
skies and milder temperatures to NY and PA this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Northwest winds flowing across Lake Ontario and the Finger
Lakes will keep isolated lake effect snow showers and flurries
over Upstate NY through early afternoon.

Building high pressure will cause skies to clear today,
especially during the afternoon. The late February sun will
modify the cold air mass over the region and allow temperatures
to rise to around 30 degrees along the Twin Tiers.

Clear skies and light winds will cause temperatures to drop
into the teen tonight.

As winds shift to the south on the back side of the high
pressure system Saturday, temperatures will rise to near 40
degrees along the NY/PA border.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
345 AM Update...
Quiet conditions persist through the weekend, with temperatures
trending milder. Even Monday looks mostly dry during the
daytime, but with thickening clouds.

A weak shortwave zipping through northern New York into New
England Saturday, will allow some clouds to press into parts of
Central New York Saturday. However, moisture will be much too
shallow for actual precipitation. Further south, especially
Southern Tier-Catskills into Northeast Pennsylvania, sunshine
will dominate. Broad high pressure will move across the
southern Appalachians Saturday, then offshore of the Carolinas
on Sunday. However, its influence will extend well north to our
area, with dry weather persisting through the weekend.

We can expect temperatures starting fairly close to climatology
early Saturday, but trending above average through the weekend
as the southwesterly return flow of the departing high becomes
more involved. By Monday, highs of 40s to lower 50s are expected
to be achieved.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
345 AM Update...
Mild southwesterly flow dominates the early part of the long
term period with above average temperatures. One or more weak
waves translating through that flow Monday night through
Wednesday will cause chances for primarily rain showers, but
colder weather and thus perhaps snow can be anticipated later
in the week.

An amplifying trough is projected to drop into the western
Great Lakes by Wednesday. This will lead to colder weather
advancing into our region Wednesday night through Thursday
night, which may include a deepening low pressure system during
that transition. System strength, track, precipitation types,
and amounts of course are far from being ascertained. However,
this period will need to be monitored for potential of wintry
weather. After the low passes, there will also probably be some
lake effect snow activity late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A few lake effect snow showers will affect the region from KSYR
down to KBGM for the next 2-3 hours, causing tempo MVFR
restrictions.

Otherwise, expect VFR conditions, clearing skies, and light
winds through the next 24 hours.

A low level jet will cause LLWS conditions at KSYR, KRME, KITH
Friday evening.

Outlook...

Saturday through Sunday...Mainly VFR expected.

Monday...Restrictions in rain showers possible.

Tuesday...Potential for scattered restrictions in rain and/or
snow showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DJP
NEAR TERM...DJP
SHORT TERM...MDP
LONG TERM...MDP
AVIATION...DJP


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