067
FXUS61 KBGM 262324
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
724 PM EDT Fri Jul 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will promote mostly clear skies and
dry conditions through Monday. High temperatures will trend
much warmer later this weekend into early next week. The chance
for showers and thunderstorms returns Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
255 PM Update...

The fair weather cumulus that has developed this afternoon
across the area will give way to clear skies tonight as high
pressure remains overhead. Winds will be light and this will
support good radiational cooling over the region and thus
blended in the NBM10th percentile into the forecast for low
temperatures tonight. Lows will mainly be in the low to mid 50s,
with some of the higher elevations and lowest valleys even
dipping back into the upper 40s overnight. There can be some
areas of valley fog that develop as well overnight through early
tomorrow morning.

High pressure will remain in control through Saturday night
promoting dry and pleasant conditions. The sky could look a bit
hazy later in the day Saturday as some Canadian wildfire smoke
moves in aloft, but is not expected to affect air quality. An
upper level ridge will start to push in from the west Saturday
night and the flow is expected to become more southerly, so it
won`t be quite as cool as tonight, but still comfortable. Highs
Saturday range from the upper 70s to the mid 80s and lows
Saturday night are expected to be from the mid 50s to near 60
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update

Upper level ridge and surface high remain over the region on Sunday
into Sunday night, providing clear and warm conditions. Highs reach
85 to 90 over the area, but the humidity won`t be too bad, as
surface dew points hold in the upper 50s to low 60s during the
afternoon hours. Quiet and seasonable Sunday night; perhaps some
river valley fog, with lows in the upper 50s to mid-60s.

Our weather stays mainly quiet on Monday, but a slow moving,
spinning upper level low tries to approach from the
east...potentially moving into NJ late in the day. This combined
with another upper level disturbance over the Ohio Valley will begin
to gradually increase moisture over Central NY and Northeast PA.
This leads to partly sunny and warm conditions, with highs in the
mid-80s to low 90s. Have introduced some slight chance PoPs over the
Catskills and northern Poconos before sunset Monday now. These PoPs
expand west back toward I-81 with a slight chance to chance for
showers or t`storms heading into Monday evening and night. Mild with
lows in the 60s areawide.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
235 PM Update

The weather pattern turns a bit more active for the long term
period. A broad upper level trough combines with that East Coast
upper level low and slowly moves east from the Ohio valley/Great
Lakes into the Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday. As PWATs rise up to
around  1.8 inches and MLCAPE gets in the 700-1500 J/kg range
numerous showers and t`storms are expected to develop both Tuesday
and Wednesday. Right now, model guidance is keeping the deep layer
wind shear on the lower end, around 10-20 kts only. So trends in the
shear will need to be watch carefully in the coming days to see if
we will get any organized, or stronger convection. Either way, with
the relatively high levels of moisture and instability, these storms
could certainly produce some heavy downpours, with WPC already
highlighting our area under a marginal risk for excessive rainfall
Tuesday into Wednesday (Day 5). Felt the data was consistent enough
over the past several days to bring the official forecast up into
the `Likely` PoP range, especially on Wednesday. Outside of the
showers and t`storms it will be partly sunny, with highs in the low
to mid-80s and muggy overnight lows in the mid-60s to lower 70s.

By Thursday, the trough may still be over portions of the area,
but it is beginning to move east into New England and the
Atlantic. Kept a chance for lingering showers and t`storms in
the forecast though, based on the NBM guidance, and the fact
that timing is uncertain this far out. Heading into Friday, it
appears the weak trough will be exiting east, replaced by some
rather flat upper level ridging. Can`t rule out an afternoon
shower or storm, otherwise mostly sunny very warm and humid with
highs in the upper 80s to low 90s expected. Heat indices could
be pushing mid to upper 90s in the valleys.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will result in light winds and VFR conditions
through early Saturday evening. There is low confidence in fog
at ELM tonight as conditions look too dry, but the tempo for
LIFR restrictions remains in the TAF as most guidance is
favoring low visibilities there.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Monday...VFR expected. Humidity may rise
high enough for early morning valley fog formation Sat night
and Sun night.

Tuesday and Wednesday...scattered showers and thunderstorms and
associated restrictions possible.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DK
NEAR TERM...DK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BTL