Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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472
FXUS61 KBGM 232334
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
734 PM EDT Tue Oct 23 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is crossing the region late this afternoon. Behind
this front much colder air will be pour into the area along
with scattered lake effect rain showers which will mix with snow
late tonight and Wednesday evening. Thursday and Friday will be
dry with high pressure over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
730 PM update...
Rain showers will continue to spin down across NY and Northeast
PA on the back side of a departing cyclone. Showers will
gradually change over to light snow in 310 degree flow,
especially on the high elevations early Wednesday morning. Light
accumulations are forecast.

Our latest temperature and POP grids have been sent.

350 PM update...
Surface cold front is moving through the twin tiers at this time
with widespread showers over central New York and more scattered
activity south. A few rumbles of thunder have occurred over
central New York and the northern tier of Pennsylvania. Once the
boundary drops south of the area the precipitation for the
remainder of the period will be primarily confined to areas
downwind of the Lake Ontario. Later tonight temperatures at
850mb cool enough for lake effect rain showers that will mix
with snow late especially in the higher elevations. The steering
flow will gradually veer overnight from about 300 degrees to 315
degrees. This will focus the activity primarily southeast of
Lake Ontario first with a gradual shift to the northern Finger
Lakes and upper Susquehanna region. A few tenths of snowfall
could occur in the higher elevations of Onondaga, Madison,
Cortland and Chenango counties. Overnight lows will range from
the middle 30s to around 40.

Wednesday...Cool northwest flow will continue with steering flow
for lake effect backing from around 320 degrees to 310/300
degrees. The precipitation will be just rain by late morning as
the boundary layer warms. Highest POPs will be over the Finger
Lakes. Abundant cloud cover is forecast due to low level
moisture and upslope flow. Highs will range in the lower to
middle 40s with some of the warmer valleys near 50.

Wednesday night...Airmass will continue to cool but very shallow
moisture will limit the lake effect activity. Steering layer
around 300 degrees will keep activity southeast of Lake Ontario
with light snow accumulations possible again in the same
counties as tonight. Overnight lows will range in the upper 20s
to lower 30s under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
High pressure builds eastward into the region leading to a mostly
sunny/clear period. Any lake effect clouds and flurries should
clear out in the morning hours on Thursday. Much colder
temperatures in the boundary layer and cold air advection will
limit warming during the daytime. Recent model runs have warmed
slightly allowing for the potential for some spots to reach the
40`s. Lows Thursday night should fall into the upper 20`s to
around 30. Friday will start mostly sunny but high clouds should
increase throughout the day with highs still only in the 40`s
to around 50. A few wind gusts around 15 mph are possible from
the northwest are possible as well on Thursday with lighter
winds by Friday as high pressure will be over the region by
Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Friday night through Sunday:

A Low pressure system will slowly organize along the gulf coast
into the Southeastern United States on Friday and then track up
the east coast this weekend. There is still quite a bit of
difference with the model and ensembles. However, the goal posts
are narrowing a bit with a consensus for the low to track up
the east coast. Uncertainities are more around timing between
the faster ECMWF and CMC with a Friday night arrival and a later
Saturday arrival on the GFS than storm formation and track.

One trend is for slightly moister air to be in place at the
onset Friday night or Saturday limiting the wetbulb potential
that would result in some snow. Also, as is typical models are
trending warmer with the boundary layer temperatures as the
event gets closer as well. As a result, confidence is higher
mainly rain will occur with perhaps some mixing with snow at the
onset.

As for timing, the forecast remains largely unchanged with a
lean on the timing toward the CMC/ECMWF. A rain/snow mix will
move in by Saturday morning and quickly change to rain Saturday
afternoon before becoming more showery by Sunday. Temperatures
will generally be in the 30`s and 40`s. Winds may get a bit
gusty at times if the low tracks close enough to the coast as
well. Overall, not the best weekend to have outdoor plans to say
the least.

Sunday night through Tuesday:

A deep trough will be left in the wake of the departing low
pressure system over the region along with several mid- level
disturbances will keep the chance for light rain showers around.
Organization of the showers may be aided by moisture coming off
the Great Lakes as well. With temperatures in the 30`s and 40`s
these may mix with snow at times.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly MVFR conditions are forecast overnight and through
Wednesday morning as low clouds continue to spin over the
terminals. A few light snow showers are possible early Wednesday
near KITH, KRME, and KSYR.

Ceilings may lift into VFR territory but remain overcast
Wednesday afternoon. Westerly winds will increase to 10 to 15
knots with gusts around 20 knots.


Outlook...

Wednesday night...Restrictions likely in rain and snow showers
in CNY. AVP VFR.

Thursday and Friday...VFR.

Saturday/Sunday...Restrictions likely in rain showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...DJP/RRM
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...DJP



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