Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 070815
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
315 AM EST Sun Mar 7 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
Lingering light lake effect snow showers will float across the
Finger Lakes this morning, but dissipate by the afternoon. A
gradual warming trend begins on Monday, with much warmer spring
like weather for midweek. Rain chances will increase later in
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
240 am update...
Main concerns in the near term are focused on the lake effect
snow showers this morning...decaying in the afternoon, then one
more night of cold temperatures tonight before the week long
warm up begins on Monday with maybe some light rain/snow mix
late Mon afternoon.

The stubborn wedge of Arctic air on the back side of a nearly
stationary upper low over eastern Quebec that has been situated
over much of the Northeast will finally start to ooze eastward
today. However, a few light snow showers will likely persist
across w- central NY this morning, which will taper of flurries
by the early afternoon. The wind field should become more
variable today as an embedded wave drops south, which will allow
for a weak amount of shear to develop and disrupt any
organization of the lake bands left over. Temperatures aloft
will begin to rise later this evening as well as the 850mb ridge
axis moves into the eastern Great Lakes.

Surface temperatures will have a hard time climbing too much
above 30 deg F today. Most of central NY will top out in the low
to mid 20s, with a few upper 20s in the valleys of the southern
Tier. Northeast PA will be able to rise into the upper 20s and
lower 30s this afternoon.

The lake clouds will dissipate this evening, which will allow
for mostly clear skies tonight and strong radiational cooling.
Temperatures will be able to fall into the single digits for
most of the area, with a few readings below zero in northern
Oneida County. Winds will be very light or calm, so no concerns
for hazardous wind chills.

The start of a warming period will occur on Monday with a broad
upper level ridge building from the central US across the Ohio
Valley and Great Lakes region. The warm air will fill in west to
east...and by the afternoon temperatures from the Finger Lakes
south across the southern Tier of NY into ne PA will see
temperatures into the lower to mid 40s. However northern Oneida
and the western Catskills may have a harder time warming too
much beyond the lower to mid 30s due to being further east, and
also the higher elevations having a higher snow pack.

A weak upper level short wave and associated surface trough
will move in from the west late Monday afternoon, and trigger a
few light rain/snow showers...mainly over central NY. No
significant rain or snow accumulations are expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...

This period will feature a strong warming trend, and much more
spring like weather for our area.

First, a warm front pushes thought he region from west to east
Monday evening and night. This boundary could touch off a few,
light mixed precip showers...mainly across north-central NY,
however QPF amounts will be very light...a few hundredths at
best. Temperatures warm aloft first, with surface temperatures
remaining below 32, and even in the mid to upper 20s across the
western Catskills and Mohawk Valley region until at least
midnight. Therefore, have a chance for light snow showers, possibly
mixing with light freezing drizzle or even a few sleet pellets.
Again, amounts look minimal to none for accumulation. Should
stay dry from the Twin Tiers south into NE PA. Surface temperatures
gradually rise for the second half of the overnight period due
to warm air advection on a SW wind; likely reaching the low to
mid-30s by daybreak.

Tuesday/Tuesday NIght: Looking dry and partly sunny as a 1030mb
surface high builds over our region from the west. There could be a
few more clouds around in the morning, giving way to more sunshine
by afternoon. Much warmer with highs in the mid-40s to lower
50s for most locations. Tuesday night will be dry and mostly
clear with light winds as the surface high sits directly overhead.
Cannot rule out some patchy valley fog, or fog over the ripening
snowpack. Lows dip down into the upper 20s to lower 30s.

Wednesday/Wednesday Night: The aforementioned high moves east,
bringing a warm, southwesterly return flow to CNY/NE PA. It will be
mostly sunny with well above average temperatures. Look for highs in
the upper 50s to lower 60s areawide. Clouds begin to gradually
increase across the far western zones late in the afternoon/evening.
For Wednesday night; clouds continue to increase as a frontal
boundary slowly approaches from the Central Great Lakes Region.
Slight chance to low end chance PoPs for a few rain showers late at
night across the west. Mild south winds continue, with overnight
lows holding in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

Remaining warm and spring-like through the end of the workweek. A
low pressure system tracks by well to our north during the day on
Thursday...and a slow moving cold front tries to press south toward
CNY/NE PA. However, as it typical with this type of setup...the
latest guidance is slowing the timing of this front and rain chances
down. With that said, there will at least be a chance for some rain
showers on Thursday for much of the forecast area and there will be
plenty of clouds around as well. Remaining warm, with highs back
into the mid-50s to lower 60s. Decent agreement in the latest
guidance that the cold front slowly sweeps through late Thursday
night into the day Friday. This will bring the best chance for a
period of rain showers to the region. QPF amounts are looking rather
light from this early vantage point...perhaps a quarter to half
inch. Temperatures will still be able to nudge up early on Friday,
and after mild overnight lows...highs may still hit the low to mid-
50s across the region.

Lower confidence in the forecast details for the upcoming weekend.
It seems the cold front presses well south of our area Friday night,
with perhaps a narrow ridge of high pressure developing over CNY/NE
PA. This would bring cooler weather, but generally dry conditions.
The CMC and ECMWF have a much deeper upper level trough (than the
GFS) skirting by our area across New England for next weekend. If
this solution verifies we can expect much colder temperatures with
chances for scattered snow showers and lake effect. For now,
considering the differences in the guidance...kept the official
forecast very close to the blended (NBM) solution. This gives
seasonably cool temperatures and slight chance PoPs for mixed
snow/rain showers. Will continue to closely monitor the latest
trends in the guidance in upcoming forecast updates.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Lake effect snow showers and clouds will continue to bring
occasional MVFR restrictions at KSYR, KITH, and KBGM from around
08Z through as late as 18Z. Brief IFR visby restrictions will
be possible in any steadier snow showers, but confidence in
timing and location is not high enough to include in TAFs.
Conditions should return to VFR at all terminals after 18Z.
KAVP and KELM likely remains VFR throughout. KRME should be
mostly VFR as well, but potential for brief MVFR restrictions
exists through this morning.

Winds will remain northwesterly today with some gusts 10-15 kt
in the late morning and afternoon...before subsiding after 00Z
Monday.

Outlook...

Sunday night through Wednesday...Mainly VFR expected.

Thursday...restrictions possible with rain.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...BJT/TAC
NEAR TERM...BJT
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...BJG/BJT


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