Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 191053
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
653 AM EDT Tue Jun 19 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide mainly dry and cooler weather
through late week. Wednesday afternoon and evening, an upper
level disturbance may bring some light showers to northeast
Pennsylvania and the southern tier.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At 4 AM, a surface cold front was dropping through northeast
Pennsylvania with scattered showers along the boundary. This
feature will drop south of Luzerne County shortly after sunrise
ending the threat for showers. High pressure in the northern
Great Lakes will provide a sunny day along with a cooler and
drier airmass. High temperatures across central New York will
range in the lower to middle 70s with northeast Pennsylvania in
the middle 70s to around 80 in the Wyoming Valley.

Tonight, mainly clear skies and light winds will make for cool
conditions as lows drop into the upper 40s to middle 50s.

Wednesday...A weak area of low pressure will move from the Ohio
Valley into the mid Atlantic region while a mid level short
wave moves through under westerly flow. Will continue to
advertise slight chance/chance pops in northeast Pennsylvania
and the southern tier during the afternoon hours. Models
continue to show airmass will be fairly stable therefore just
included showers. Highs will generally range in the mid to upper
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
An upper level trough will dip toward the Northern NY border
Wednesday night. At the same time, a weak surface low over the
Mid-Atlantic will drift eastward to the ocean. A few showers are
possible Wednesday night, before high pressure moves in from the
west and brings dry conditions and pleasant temperatures for
Thursday.

A few readings in the upper-40s are expected Thursday night in
the normally cooler valleys.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
After a fair weather day on Friday, a slow moving storm over the
Central U.S. will track northeastward into Lower Michigan Friday
night. A few showers are possible over our far western forecast
area through Saturday morning.

As the cyclone lifts into Canada this weekend, scattered showers
and thunderstorms are expected to form across NY and PA.

The upper level trough axis behind the cyclone is forecast to
pass through NY on Monday, keeping a slight chance for showers
over our region.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The cold front has moved through the terminals but lingering
MVFR/Alternate Required ceilings are possible through 14Z in
the southern terminals. By mid morning just scattered high
clouds are forecast for the remainder of the TAF period.

Northwest winds around 10 knots with gusts later this morning
around 18 knots. Winds becoming light this evening.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Saturday...Mainly VFR, though a small chance
for showers/brief restrictions is possible on Wednesday mainly
at KAVP.

&&


.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RRM
NEAR TERM...RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...DJP
AVIATION...RRM



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