Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBGM 271821
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
221 PM EDT Wed Mar 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A frontal system is bringing clouds and showers to the area
through Thursday morning. Dry and partly sunny conditions are
expected for Friday, but it will be breezy and cool. The upcoming
weekend features seasonable temperatures with a chance for
scattered rain showers on Saturday into Saturday night, with
dry and partly sunny weather returning on Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
940 AM Update...

Minor adjustments made to PoPs over the next few hours, mainly
increasing them over the Catskills. There have been a handful of
lightning strikes near the Delaware/Otsego County border, so
some thunder has been added in for the next couple of hours.
Blended in the latest obs as well as temperatures were running
a little warmer than forecasted in the near term over portions
of Sullivan County where rain hasn`t filled in yet.

650 AM Update

Uncertainty still remains in the forecast details later today
across the I-81 corridor, in and around the Binghamton to Owego
areas. The latest HRRR wants to bring periods of rain through
this area starting mid morning and lasting through the
afternoon...meanwhile the 06z 3km NAM keeps this area mainly
dry. Thus far regional radar trends are keeping the rain further
east...but with a nod to the HRRR did expand higher chance to
low likely PoPs back west toward the immediate Binghamton area
at times, with at least the potential for periods of rain
showers. Slight nudges to temperatures based on the latest
trends and data, but the rest of the forecast remains on track
at this time.

325 AM Update

Main concerns on the near term focused on where rain will setup
today, tonight and again on Thursday. Latest CAMs showed a
rather narrow band of rain developing/expanding northward near
or just east of Binghamton by the mid-morning hours. There
remain subtle differences in the exact placement of this rain
band, so took a blended approach. Will need to take another look
with the sunrise update to see if the position of this rain
band changes; for now have Binghamton under chance PoPs much of
the day, but not very far off to the northeast-east-southeast we
have likely PoPs to lower end categorical PoPs for periods of
rain much of the day. This includes locations such as
Scranton/Wilkes-Barre, Honesdale, Hancock, Walton, Delhi,
Monticello and Oneonta. In these areas up to around a quarter
inch of rain is expected today. Further back to the north and
west of Binghamton, especially in the Finger Lakes and Syracuse
metro area today will be mainly dry, with partly sunny skies and
very warm temperatures between 60-65 degrees for a high.
Temperatures will be held down into the mid to upper 40s for
areas east of Binghamton that see the persistent rainfall.

The area of rain over the east gradually becomes lighter this
evening, but a narrow frontal boundary brings renewed chances
for scattered showers across the Finger Lakes and Central
southern tier toward sunset. These showers could be convective
in nature along the front, but at this time, no thunder is
expected as forecast CAPE is very low (<50 J/Kg). As this front
moves east it weakens and the showers with it taper off. There
should be a lull in the rain activity overnight, with just
slight chances for showers or drizzle as the winds turn more
northerly or northwest behind the boundary. Cooler with lows in
the 30s to around 40.

A wave of low pressure then moves north along the North Carolina
and Mid-Atlantic coast on Thursday. Models have come into better
agreement with this 00z cycle that the rainfall should remain
east of Binghamton...with chances for rain really ramping up
over the southern Catskills and eastern Poconos/Pike County in
NE PA. For this area there are still likely to low end
Categorical PoPs for periods of rain much of the day on
Thursday. Uncertainty does remain in exactly where this rain
band will set up with the coastal system. Rainfall amounts are
close to a quarter inch along our far eastern border zones in
Sullivan and Pike counties...tapering off fast to the west. It
now appears even the Wyoming Valley region could squeeze in a
mainly dry day on Thursday...although it will be very close
here, so did keep in a chance for rain in case it wobbles west.

From Binghamton, north and west it will be dry and partly sunny
on Thursday...but cooler with a slight breeze. Expect northwest
winds 7 to 15 mph, and highs in the mid-40s to lower 50s...which
is actually very close to average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
135 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are centered around the gusty
northwest winds Friday and Saturday with generally dry
conditions until a weak warm front lifts a batch of rain into
the area late Sat afternoon.

An area of low pressure at the surface 150 miles off the coast
of NJ, along with an upper short wave, will be lifting
north/newd Friday morning. As this system continues to move to
the north off the New England coast later in the day Friday, the
system is expected deepen which will act to tighten the sfc
pres gradient over inland areas of the Northeast as high
pressure builds into the Great Lakes. This tightening pres
gradient is expected to induce sustained northwest winds around
20 mph and occasional gusts 30 to 35 mph through the day Friday,
Fri night and into Saturday.

The air mass is expected to be quite dry with PWs around 0.25
inch. 850mb temperatures advecting in from the northwest will
range from -7 to -9 deg C. Conditions will not be favorable for
lake effect snow with very minimal moisture and temperatures too
warm aloft.

Heights aloft will gradually rise Friday night into Saturday,
especially across the Great Lakes. A fast moving clipper-type
system will track from the southern Great Lakes into the
northern Mid Atlantic region on the heels of the ridge later on
Saturday. There still remains quite a bit of uncertainty in the
north-south placement/track of this wave. The latest ECMWF
keeps it a closed sfc low with a much more northern track, while
most of the other deterministic guidance keeps it an open wave
with a southerly track. At this point, cannot rule out a low
chance (20-30%) of some light rain moving in late in the day
Saturday.

Temperatures on Friday will be on the cooler side, especially
with that cold northwest flow bringing in the Canadian air mass.
Highs will only reach into the 40s. Friday night lows
temperatures will drop back into the 20s to near 30. Could feel
like temperatures in the teens with the inclusion of the wind.
Some ridging moving on Saturday will relax the temperatures and
allow for some 50s, especially south of the Finger Lakes.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
135 PM update...

The short wave will continue passing through Sat night with
rain chances around 30 to 40% and possibly some snow mixing (20
to 30% chance) in over elevations above 1400 feet in central NY.
Temperatures in the 30s Saturday night will warm into the 40s
and 50s during the day as the system exits to the east. Weak
high pressure is expected to build into and out of the area
Sunday and early Sun night before the next system over the
central US starts to move in on Monday. This system on Monday,
and likely lasting into Tuesday, is not being resolved with much
consensus among the deterministic model guidance. There is also
quite a bit of spread in the various ensemble suites, so will
continue with the standard model/ensemble blend this far out.
Temperatures look relatively seasonal with highs in the 40s and
50s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
200 PM Update...

VFR conditions are in place at most terminals this afternoon
with mid-to-high clouds streaming overhead. Rain showers have
increased in coverage over NE PA and into the Catskills
resulting in varying conditions at KAVP, with the rain heavy
enough at times to lead to IFR visibilities. The NY terminals
are expected to remain VFR through early this evening until
ceilings begin to lower as a cold front advances toward the area
from the west. KITH, KELM and KBGM can all drop to Fuel Alt
conditions later this evening and into the overnight hours.
Farther north, KRME and KSYR are expected to drop to MVFR, with
confidence higher at SYR of lower ceilings with the potential
for spotty showers from the approaching front. Ceilings are
expected to improve tomorrow morning back to VFR.

For KAVP, scattered showers will continue into this evening with
varying conditions from VFR to IFR depending on the intensity of
the rain. Showers are expected to slowly push east later in the
evening, but restrictions remain in place overnight with low end
fuel alt ceilings. Some guidance does suggest that IFR or even
below alt. min ceilings can develop overnight so this is covered
via TEMPO for now. Confidence on the low ceilings is on the low
side as guidance seemed to be too pessimistic for this
afternoon. Like the NY terminals, ceilings are expected to
improve before the end of the TAF.

Outlook...

Thursday...MVFR to VFR for most terminals. Restrictions
possible in mist/low clouds for AVP early. (Low to moderate
confidence)

Thursday night into Friday...VFR (High confidence)

Saturday...Mainly VFR (Moderate confidence)

Saturday night through Sunday...A weak clipper system could
bring rain showers and associated restrictions.

Monday...mainly VFR; small chance of showers.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...DK/MJM
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...DK/MJM


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