Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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894 FXUS61 KBGM 141101 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 701 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019 .SYNOPSIS... A weak front will blow through today, with some extra passing clouds and perhaps even a few brief sprinkles in parts of Central New York. Fairly quiet weather will continue through Tuesday night. However, a low pressure system will bring rain area wide on Wednesday, followed by chilly and blustery conditions later this week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 420 AM Update... Fairly quiet weather is anticipated today through Tuesday, though not without some features of influence. High pressure has already bypassed the area and is pushing offshore, making room for the weak cold front now edging into the Finger Lakes. That said, the legacy of the high pressure is an abundance of dry air still resident over our region. This will make showers difficult to muster for the front as it moves west to east through the region today. A fair amount of clouds will at least get into Central New York, and perhaps even a few light showers especially in western Steuben-Yates. Northeast PA meanwhile will end up with more sunshine other than a brief deck of early morning clouds along/east of I-81, and probably not a single raindrop. Winds will veer westerly and pick up somewhat behind the front, with cool air advection stopping temperatures from rising above the 50s in the Central Southern Tier through Finger Lakes and the NY Thruway corridor including Syracuse- Utica. Further south, enough initial warming will occur for lower 60s at least in the valleys, and perhaps even some mid 60s in the Delaware Valley of Sullivan-Pike Counties. Much of the area will fall into the 30s for lows tonight, though there will also still be a bit of pressure gradient wind at least in the evening, as well as lake clouds extending through parts of the area and even lake effect sprinkles north of the NY Thruway. High pressure will nose into Northeast PA-Southern Tier NY near dawn. There may be some patchy frost, but details of locations will depend on especially on where lake clouds turn out to be absent. Quiet and dry Tuesday, as high pressure skims by the area, with plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 400 AM UPDATE... High pressure pushes out into the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday morning as a vertically stacked low moves across the Great Lakes with a strong surface cold front extending across Western NY and south into the Ohio Valley. The front should plow through the region Wednesday afternoon with showers and possibly even some thunderstorms. By Wednesday evening, a Coastal Low develops and rapidly deepens, however models currently disagree on the placement and track of this feature at this time. The intensity and exact track of this coastal low will have huge implications on the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday morning. The GFS, keeps the low further out to sea and tracks the low right over the 70/40 benchmark with the bulk of any heavy rain falling to our east across Southern New England. However, the Euro has a much more intense low developing and tracking over Long Island and then northeast into New England. This scenario would likely bring some impactful weather to our area, with heavy rainfall to the Catskills, especially the eastern Catskills and also winds gusts would be much stronger. Flooding would be the main concern, even with the fairly dry antecedent conditions and WPC has introduced a large Marginal Excessive Rainfall risk for Day 3. However, due to the uncertainty/spread in the models at this time, will hold off mentioning in the HWO for now and would like to see better agreement with the 12Z runs. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 415 AM UPDATE... As mentioned in the short term discussion, the track of the coastal low will determine how the forecast turns out for Thursday morning. As Euro would keep the possibility for heavy rain across the Catskills through Thursday morning and possibly into Thursday afternoon. For now, a blend of model guidance brings in strong NW flow with low clouds and moisture pushing southeastward off Lake Ontario. At the very least, we can expect some showers Thursday outside of NE PA. Cold air advection will pick up through the day, and with a tight pressure gradient, wind gusts will be quite strong, especially across the higher terrain. High pressure builds back into the area on Friday as ridge starts to build across the Eastern U.S. This should help temperatures warm back up, after the cool and blustery day on Thursday. A warming trend may continue right through next weekend as ridge overtakes the Eastern U.S. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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With a fuel alternate deck letting go of KAVP right around 12Z, VFR conditions are generally expected through this TAF period for all terminals with the following slight caveats. For the NY terminals, a VFR ceiling around 4-6 kft will exist along and behind a passing weak cold front for a time midday through afternoon, and perhaps even a sprinkle or two. There is a small chance that KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM could briefly dip into MVFR. As the front moves through the area, winds will veer from light southeast/south, to west/eventually northwest 8-12 knots midday through afternoon before slackening tonight. Late tonight, KELM could potentially get valley fog but there will also be lake effect clouds in the vicinity which may prevent it from forming. Confidence is pretty low and so that fog has not been included in the KELM TAF for now. Outlook... Tuesday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR. Wednesday into Wednesday night...Restrictions expected as low pressure system moves through the region with rain showers. Thursday through Thursday night...Scattered showers and minor restrictions, especially for the NY terminals. Friday...Mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MDP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...MPK AVIATION...MDP

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