Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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127 FXUS61 KBGM 211447 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 947 AM EST Wed Nov 21 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A strong arctic cold front will cross the area today, accompanied by snow showers and a few snow squalls this afternoon. Bitterly cold, but generally dry weather will follow for Thanksgiving Day through Friday. Temperatures are expected to moderate over the weekend, but rain or a brief wintry mix, is also anticipated to develop during the day Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... Some light will be going on this morning. However our main concern is a approaching band of snow squalls across lake Ontario currently. This will move southeast across the NY Thruway through late morning and into the Cortland area eastward to around Cooperstown by early afternoon. A quick inch of snow is expected to fall within about an hour with blowing and drifting of snow as well. A few thunderstorms are also embedded within the line as well. The RAP model has the best handle based on mesoscale analysis this morning. Locations further south and west will be further away from the best lift and dynamics but will still see snow showers today. 415 AM Update... A winter weather advisory remains in effect over portions of our northern NY state counties through this evening. Given the high volume of holiday traffic, we continue to remain quite focused on this potential and it has been highlighted in a hazardous weather briefing, which can be accessed by going to: www.weather.gov/bgm/briefingMain. Lake-effect snow bands will also be at play late in the afternoon and into tonight, owing to significant cold air advection and lingering low-level moisture. Flow orientation favors Onondaga, Madison, and Oneida counties for the most persistent lake snows late day into early evening, with southern Onondaga, southern Cayuga, Cortland, Tompkins, and maybe portions of Seneca, northern Tioga and northern Broome Counties later tonight into Thursday morning on a NNW flow (320-330 degrees). Accumulations tonight into Thursday morning for these locales could range from 1 to 3 inches, with locally higher amounts in narrow bands. The snow will be very dry and fluffy, likely 20:1 liquid ratios. 850 mb temperatures are still forecast to fall to around -20 to -22C by 12z Thursday, along with sub 510dm 1000-500mb thicknesses...i.e. unprecedented cold for mid to late November. After midday highs in the upper 20s-mid 30s today, readings will tumble in the afternoon behind the arctic front, ending up well down into the 20s by sunset. By daybreak Thursday, air temperatures will be in the single digits to lower teens, with apparent temperatures (wind chills) below zero in many locales. Portions of Oneida, Otsego, Delaware and Sullivan counties look to see wind chills around 15 below for a time Thursday morning...therefore a wind chill advisory has been issued for these areas from 1 AM Thursday until noon. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 5 AM Update... Record lows are expected by dawn Friday, but temperatures will begin to moderate as we head into the weekend. Under mainly clear skies, winds will go light/variable or calm and temperature readings will free fall Thursday night with ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows by sunrise Friday mostly in the single digits above zero but some of the typically coldest drainage spots could even slip below. There is a little bit of uncertainty that a thin layer of lake clouds could persist for a time over part of the northeastern zones which might prevent a full drop off in temperatures, but even so just about all areas will get into single digits. While still rather cold for Friday, it will also be crisp and mostly sunny, with temperatures reaching into mostly the mid to upper 20s. That will represent a 7 to 10 degree boost compared to Thanksgiving highs. A quick drop into the mid teens-lower 20s in the evening, will be followed by a gradual creeping up of temperatures as high clouds begin to stream into the region ahead of our next system. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 5 AM update... Forecast adjusted for latest multi-model consensus. One trend worth noting, is that it will take longer for precipitation to move in Saturday; primarily afternoon into evening. Temperatures thus appear to be warm enough by then for mainly rain, though since this will be following a very anomalous Arctic air mass we always have to be careful in case low level cold air has trouble scouring out. One positive development in this regard is that high pressure will quickly shoot east- southeast off the coast of NJ-NY-Southern New England, instead of being anchored over Northern New England. This is suggestive of a quicker warm air advection which is more likely to support all rain, instead of that second scenario which would be more conducive to a initial period of wintry mix. We will continue to monitor closely. Previous discussion... Saturday, low pressure moving into the mid Atlantic region will spread precipitation across the area. The GFS is faster with onset then the ECMWF so will mention a light wintry mix from I81 west during the morning but by afternoon temperatures modify enough for just rain. The rain will continue into Saturday night before tapering off. Highs on Saturday will be in the 40s with lows Saturday night in the mid/upper 30s. On Sunday area will reside between systems although scattered rain showers are still possible. Sunday night into Tuesday, a more significant system will track from the mid west northeast across the Ohio Valley and into New England. Another wet period looks likely Monday into Monday night. Highs Sunday and Monday will be in the lower to middle 40s. By Tuesday mainly scattered rain showers are expected behind departing low. Highs will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Expect a mix of low end VFR and MVFR conditions early this morning, through about 13-15Z. Should be mainly MVFR CIGS/VIS at KSYR and KRME during this timeframe. West-southwest winds are increasing between 10-20 kts. A strong cold front will push across the terminals during the late morning into the afternoon hours, bringing snow squalls and WNW wind gusts of 25 to 35 knots. The best chance for squalls will be north of the NY/PA border. However, a few squalls may make it to KAVP toward 20-22z this afternoon. Some of the snow showers will produce visibilities between 1/4SM and 2SM, with ceilings falling to between 500 and 1200 feet. Brief squalls could even produce +SHSN, with vis less than 1/4sm for a short period of time. Light MVFR lake effect snow showers continue into the evening and overnight hours for the NY terminals, as KAVP becomes VFR. WNW winds remain breezy between 10-20 kts., but then decrease late at night to less than 10 kts. Outlook... Thursday...VFR, except for intermittent restrictions from lake effect flurries KSYR-KITH-KELM-KBGM in the morning. Friday...VFR. Saturday/Sunday...Restrictions perhaps redeveloping in lower CIGS and light rain. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to noon EST Thursday for NYZ009- 046-057-062. Winter Weather Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for NYZ009-018-036-037. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM/MWG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MLJ/MDP AVIATION...MJM

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