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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 011843
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
243 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will push west tomorrow and a backdoor cold front
will increase chances for rain late tomorrow afternoon through
Saturday. Cooler temperatures are expected across the area this
weekend and into the first half of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
235 PM Update...

High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with hot and dry
conditions. By tonight, ridging will start to shift westward and
will continue pushing west tomorrow, however it is also looking
like the warmest day of the week with widespread 90s possible.
Did not warm the high temperatures too much over models as there
is more moisture and thus a better chance at clouds developing
during the afternoon, especially east of I81.

Instability will be maximized east of the I81 corridor tomorrow
afternoon with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 1000
to 1500 J/kg. Also, a weak 500 mb shortwave will be pushing in
from the north as the upper level ridge continues moving
farther west. Hard to say at this time how far west the storms
will make it tomorrow afternoon and evening as mid level capping
increases the farther west you go. Wind shear is very weak,
however there is plenty of dry air with model soundings showing
an inverted V in the low levels with large dew point
depressions. This could support a few of dry microburst as
thunderstorms weaken and current CAM runs of the HRRR and
NAMNest are also showing this as a possibility.

Showers and thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage
tomorrow night with the loss of heating. However, as upper
trough drops southward into New England, further height falls
may support more shower activity overnight and into Saturday
morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
240 PM Update...

Over the weekend, an upper-level low will move through the
Northeast. North to northwesterly flow will advect cooler air into
the region through the weekend. Highs will go from the 70s on
Saturday to 60s and 70s on Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the
40s both nights.

Models continue to show some showers for Saturday, and that
continues to look to be the case in the morning hours. Some model
guidance favors drier conditions by Saturday afternoon, which will
then limit precipitation chances. BUFKIT soundings are dry in the
mid-levels with very little moisture near the surface. Because of
this, PoPs were greatly reduced below most guidance, especially
Saturday afternoon. Then through the rest of the weekend, PoPs were
capped at just slight chance since high pressure will fill in behind
the departing low. The trend is leaning toward a dry second half of
the weekend. Based on all of this, the weekend is not looking as wet
as previously forecasted and the search for more widespread,
beneficial rainfall continues.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
240 PM Update...

The aforementioned low moves out to sea to start next week. An upper-
level ridge will quickly pass through on Monday as precipitation
chances will be limited during the daytime hours. Another upper low
will move into the region Monday night and hang around through the
rest of the long-term forecast period. This system will keep
conditions cool with highs only in the 60s and 70s. There will be
multiple chances for rain showers as the system spins over the upper
Northeast. While instability will be limited, afternoon
thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure continues through tonight and into tomorrow, with
light winds and VFR conditions.


Outlook...

Friday...Mainly VFR with a small chance for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms at RME.

Saturday through Monday...Mostly VFR, but some brief
restrictions will be possible from showers early on Saturday.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK
SHORT TERM...BTL
LONG TERM...BTL
AVIATION...MPK