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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 190136
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
936 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Southerly winds will pull hot and humid air into NY and PA on
Monday with thunderstorms possible again during the afternoon.
However, storms will be mostly diurnally driven on Monday with
the lack of any significant forcing. More showers and
thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and especially Wednesday as
as a strong cold front pushes through Wednesday afternoon
through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure and cool
conditions for the end of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
935 pm update...
Thunderstorms have ended across the region with only a few light
rain showers flaring up every now and then...mainly over ne PA.
This trend will likely continue through the night as the
boundary layer becomes, and remains fairly stable. Some clear,
combined with recent rain and a rather moist near surface layer
may lead to some low clouds and patchy fog later tonight and
early Monday morning. Still expecting some convective
development again tomorrow late morning and into the
afternoon...with maybe a slightly earlier end to the storms with
a stronger area of high pressure moving in from the west later
in the day. Another hot and humid day tomorrow with scattered afternoon
strong to possibly severe thunderstorms.

Previous Discussion...
More widespread thunderstorms developing across the region
today as a short wave crosses. Some storms could severe, as CAPE
values top out above 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 35
knots. There is also a threat for flash flooding into this
evening, with forecast soundings showing PWATs topping out over
1.75" and short Corfidi vectors indicate a good possibility for
back building cells/training.

Southwest return flow pushes hot and humid air into NY and PA
for Monday. Temperatures will rise to between 85 and 90 degrees
across the Twin Tiers with heat indices possibly reaching the
mid-90s. Another round of thunderstorms is likely during the
afternoon peak heating, but any perturbations pushing through
the westerly zonal flow aloft tomorrow appear weak, so forcing
will be quite limited.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Surface high pressure pushes over the NE U.S. with upper trough
starting to dip down from Ontario Tuesday evening. Highest
chances for thunderstorms will be across the southern forecast
area during max heating, but rain chances will depend on
positioning of the high. Euro keeps most of the region dry, with
most rainfall to the south of the area. Tend to lean more
towards the Euro solution as the GFS seems to be digging upper
trough too quickly into the region Tuesday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
No major changes made to the long term forecast with cooler high
pressure pushing into the region towards the end of the week
after a cold front passes Wednesday into Thursday.

345 AM Update...
Warmth and humidity sneak back into the area one more time
Wednesday, in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front.
This will provide fuel for a likely batch of thunderstorms as
the front passes through sometime in the late Wednesday-
Wednesday night time frame. Some potential for stronger
storms from higher shear values but details will be sorted out
with more confidence in coming days. It would not be unheard of
for a pre-frontal trough to complicate the set-up as often
happens in our region.

There is still at least a small chance for lingering convection
Thursday, but most model guidance has post-frontal cool and dry
air advection quickly getting underway which will lead to a
quiet period lasting right into next weekend.

Previous discussion...
Used National Blend of Models (NBM) as a starting point for
this period. All synoptic models show a large upper trough
building into the northeast U.S by Friday with a large canadian
high pressure following the trough. This trough will push a cold
front through the region from Wednesday night to Thursday night
depending on which model you look at. So used the blend to
populate the POPs in this time period. All synoptic models and
the NBM agree that cooler and drier air covers the region for
Friday and Saturday so have POPs less than 15 percent both days.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Most of the showers and storms have come to an end and moved
east of the area. However, there is a second batch of
convection trying to develop over wrn NY...which could have the
potential to impact several of the NY terminals. At this time
not confident enough to add to the TAFs, and will monitor the
trends and add to the forecast if showers/storms approach any
terminal. Conditions should stabilize enough to bring most of
the convection to an end as the evening progresses. Forecast
confidence remains on the low side overnight and into early
Monday morning regarding the potential for low clouds and fog.
At this point will lean toward some MVFR/fuel alternate
restrictions given the recent rain at most terminals and the
presence of an abundance of low level moisture. Cannot rule out
the potential for IFR fog...especially at locations that saw
saturating rain today.

S/SW winds 5-10 kt this evening will become light 5 kt or less
tonight before shifting to the W/NW Monday afternoon around 5-10
kt and a few gusts to 15 kt possible.

Outlook...

Monday night to Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers and
storms.

Friday...VFR conditions likely.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK
SHORT TERM...MPK/MDP
LONG TERM...MPK/MDP
AVIATION...BJT/MPK