Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 091338 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 938 AM EDT Sun Aug 9 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Today will be fair and seasonably warm. Warmer and more humid weather will return Monday through Thursday. This warmer and more humid air will bring mainly afternoon and evening scattered showers and thunderstorms to the region. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 935 am update... Forecast remains on track and just made very minor changes to cloud cover based on latest METSAT and observations. No other changes needed at this time. 245 am update... Main concerns in the near term are focused on the patchy valley fog this morning, the potential for isolated weak showers this afternoon, the hot and humid conditions expected Monday along with the threat for isolated thunderstorms in the afternoon. Synoptic conditions this morning defined by a nearly zonal upper level flow and weak high pressure at the surface across much of the Northeast. The air mass is relatively dry overall as well. Light surface winds and a dry/suppressive air mass will continue to create favorable conditions for fog this morning. The presence of a thin layer of high clouds may limit the amt/extent of fog, but still expecting patchy valley fog through about 8-9 am this morning. An upper level short wave is currently tracking east through the n-central Great Lakes, and will move through nrn NY late this morning. Large scale lift along this trough axis will sweep across the Northeast and act to mainly increase cloud cover over n-central NY, but there is also the potential for a few light rain showers as well. Temperatures will rise into the 80s this afternoon, but with limited humidity, the amt of instability will be low enough to keep thunderstorms from forming. Tonight, favorable conditions for fog return with skies clearing off south of the Finger Lakes, across the upper Susquehanna and into ne PA. Temperatures will fall into the 60s, and combine with light surface winds to help with the formation of valley fog. The surface high finally shifts to the east on Monday which will act to create a more robust sw flow into PA/NY, and usher in a warmer air mass. Temperatures will climb into the lower 90s for a good portion of the forecast area. Dew points will inch up into the lower 70s, which will allow heat index values to reach into the mid to upper 90s in some locations. Areas of central NY may need a Heat Advisory Monday afternoon. There is also a threat of thunderstorms Monday afternoon. BL CAPE values above 1000 J/kg and steep low level lapse rates will allow for a positive setup for isolated-scattered thunderstorms. The lack of deep layer shear will keep the severe threat to a minimum, but weak steering flow and PWATs around 1.5 inches may cause a few slow-moving thunderstorms with brief heavy downpours to produce localized flooding issues. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... With the loss of daytime heating, any remaining showers or thunderstorms end by sunset Monday evening. Skies will be mostly clear, aside from some patchy valley fog. Lows will likely be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. With dewpoints remaining in the upper 60s, it will remain quite humid as well. A slow moving cold front will approach the area on Tuesday from the Great Lakes. Model guidance has trended considerably slower and weaker with this front compared to prior runs. As a result, now expecting Tuesday morning to remain completely dry. Also reduced PoPs significantly for Tuesday afternoon. Greatest chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms remains across Central NY, with a much lesser chance further south and east. The more noteworthy story for Tuesday will likely end up being the heat and humidity. Highs will likely range from the upper 80s to lower 90s (mid 80s across the Catskills). Some of the valley locations may even climb to the mid 90s. Dewpoints look to be mainly in the upper 60s to lower 70s. This will lead to widespread heat indices in the 90s. Valley locations and the northern Finger Lakes/Syracuse area will likely have heat indices in the mid to upper 90s. If these trends continue, these areas may end up needing Heat Advisories as we get closer. The one big question mark is if isolated to scattered afternoon convection keep temperatures down a bit. Additional isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening with the frontal boundary remaining nearby. However, with the loss of daytime heating, expecting coverage to gradually diminish overnight. Otherwise, expecting partly cloudy skies with lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Dewpoints once again remain in the mid to upper 60s. The above mentioned frontal boundary likely stalls just south of the area on Wednesday. This will lead to another day of diurnally-driven scattered showers and thunderstorms, especially during the afternoon. Greatest chance for this will be closer to the frontal boundary in Northeast PA and the Twin Tiers. Highs will likely be a bit cooler on Wednesday, mainly in the 80s. With the loss of daytime heating, any lingering showers or thunderstorms taper off overnight Wednesday. Lows will likely be in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... The above mentioned frontal boundary very slowly drifts southward during during the mid-late week, but remains nearly stationary. With this boundary around, diurnally-driven showers and thunderstorms are possible each day, especially across the southern half of the area (Twin Tiers into Northeast PA). That being said, no particular day looks to be a washout at this time since coverage will be isolated to scattered and mainly concentrated during the afternoon. Temperatures remain above normal during much of the long term period, with highs mainly in the 80s. By next weekend, a slightly cooler airmass moves in, likely bringing temperatures back closer to normal for this time of the year. && .AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Patchy fog will lift and mix out between 12-14Z with all sites going VFR afterward and through the rest of the day. Conditions will be mainly VFR with only a thin layer of high clouds and a low-end VFR cumulus deck in the afternoon. Cannot rule out a brief rain shower, but confidence is not high enough to include in TAFs. There is a chance of more valley fog again tonight. Winds will be light west to southwest under 10 knots. Outlook... Monday...Mainly VFR with a small chance of an isolated shower or thunderstorm Monday afternoon. Tuesday through Thursday...Chances for restrictions in showers and thunderstorms. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJT NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK SHORT TERM...BJG LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...BJT/DJN

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