Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 272332 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 732 PM EDT Sun May 27 2018 .SYNOPSIS... A moist easterly flow will keep light showers, drizzle and patchy fog across the region tonight. Watching for isolated to scattered thunderstorms across most of Central New York and the Northern Tier of Pennsylvania Monday afternoon. Turning much warmer Monday and especially Tuesday, with highs in the 80s. High pressure will then build eastward into the region keeping much of the area dry Tuesday and Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... 330 PM Update... This Evening and Tonight: Latest GOES-E Visible Sat loop shows some breaks of sun across mainly Steuben and Yates counties this afternoon...this is allowing temperatures to warm well into the 70s for this area, and the latest SPC mesoanalysis is showing instability in this region as well. KBGM 0.5 degree radar is showing some isolated t`storms developing over Allegany county NY...just to our west. Continued with scattered showers and isolated t`storms for late this afternoon and early evening from about Penn Yan-- Elmira--Towanda westward. Any storms that do develop could produce a few cloud to ground lightning strikes and brief heavy rain. Further east...for the rest of the forecast area...expect just some light rain showers into the early evening hours, transitioning to patchy fog/drizzle overnight. Lows will dip down into the 50s...except near 60 west. Monday: High pressure will slowly start to build east toward the region breaking up some of the persistent cloud cover. However, the lingering trough looks to set-up over the Finger Lakes. A fair amount of instability is modeled with anywhere from 800-1500 J/KG CAPE on modeled soundings and LIs down to -6. This looks to be enough to produce isolated to scattered showers and storms in the afternoon hours. 0-6km bulk shear values are rather low...mainly 20-25 kts, which should help to negate the threat for strong to severe storms. However, with that said...cannot rule out an isolated stronger pulsing storm. Most of the thunder storm activity should remain across Central NY and the far northern tier of PA. At this time, the showers/storms are not forecast to make it into the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area. With more in the way of sunshine, highs will be warmer in the 70`s and low 80`s...except mid-80s in the lower elevations of the Finger Lakes and Chemung river valley. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Monday night, a surface trough moving through eastern Canada into northern New England may produce an isolated shower across the northeast portion of the forecast area through midnight. Otherwise conditions will be dry, with patchy river valley fog and temperatures falling into the upper 50s to lower 60s. Tuesday/Tuesday night...An upper level ridge will build across the region during the period as high pressure in eastern Canada drops southeast into New England by Tuesday night. Tuesday afternoon isolated convection is possible in the far southeast forecast area where models indicate afternoon instability along with a weak surface trough continuing to drop south through southern New England and into the mid Atlantic region. The remainder of the region will be mostly sunny on Tuesday with highs well into the 80s. Humidity values will drop through the day as much drier air filters in from the north. Skies will remain mainly clear Tuesday night with temperatures dropping into the 50s to near 60 south. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 345 pm update... In the big picture, a mid-week east coast upper ridge will gradually give way to a deepening upper-level trough axis, towards next weekend. On Wednesday, mainly dry and seasonably warm weather is expected, with perhaps some late day and evening showers coming into our far western zones. Thursday-Saturday, model consensus is improving that an approaching upper trough axis will gradually amplify, and perhaps close off, over the mid-Atlantic states. It may even pull in the remnants of whatever is left of Alberto at that time. Bottom line, at least scattered showers are anticipated each day, with embedded thunder. Still uncertainty with exactly how the upper system will evolve, so other than some likely probabilities in our western zones Thursday into Friday, we`re only carrying chance/scattered values. Wednesday should be the warmest day (highs in the upper 70s-mid 80s), before readings gradually lower through the 70s from Thursday onward, with more clouds/precipitation expected. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
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Fairly light winds and high relative humidities will lead to widespread MVFR and low VFR ceilings across our terminals overnight. In addition, light fog may form at KBGM and KELM, with visibility restrictions between 3SM and 5SM. Due to the higher elevation, KBGM will experience IFR ceilings through early morning, with the deck fluctuating between 300 and 900 feet. Clouds will begin to break up during the mid-morning hours on Monday. VFR conditions will prevail as light south winds shift to the west by afternoon. There is a slight chance for thunderstorms near and south of KAVP during the afternoon, but the coverage will be too low to include in the current forecast. Outlook... Monday night through Thursday...Mainly VFR conditions expected. Isolated afternoon shower or t`storm cannot be ruled out. Friday...Scattered showers and thunderstorms may cause restrictions.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM SHORT TERM...MJM LONG TERM...MLJ AVIATION...DJP

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