Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 281139 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 639 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020 .SYNOPSIS... Light accumulating snow showers will continue today mainly across Central NY. High pressure and seasonable temperatures are expected with dry and partly sunny weather, Wednesday through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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6 am update... Warmer and cloudier than had so adjusted. Also snow showers extending to our southern border so upped the pops. 3 am update... The forecast problem of the day is the reports of freezing rain and unknown precipitation amongst the scattered snow showers in most of the county warning area. This is due to saturated low levels not high enough to reach the best dendrites to keep it all snow. Temperatures are cooling some so mostly snow typical now. Liquid amounts are very light on the order of a hundredth or a trace. Will continue to cover the freezing precip with a special weather statement through the morning commute. snow amounts will also be low given the saturation depth and temperatures. The low level flow will not tap into Lake Huron given the NW flow shifting to north. There is some weak enhancement downwind of each of the Finger Lakes. The highest snow amounts of only an inch or two will be over the high terrain between Ithaca and Syracuse. This is for the calendar day today. There could be a weak uptick in the showers this afternoon with diurnal heating and a weak cold front. Highs from around 30 to the mid 30s. Winds around 10 mph with some gusts. Tonight and Wednesday high pressure starts to build in shifting the low level winds to the north then northeast cutting off the lake effect snow. Low temperatures tonight mostly upper teens to lower 20s but as usual Oneida County will be colder. Wednesday increasing sunshine but high temperatures similar to today. The high is dropping south with dry arctic air.
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&& .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... High pressure will gradually build into the region resulting in mostly clear skies and light winds. Some uncertainty with low temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday nights are present for locations that have some snow cover remaining. Those of you who do not have snow on the ground should stay closer to 10 for an overnight low while those who do will see lows several degrees colder Wednesday night. Low temperatures should be several degrees higher Thursday night. With sunshine on Thursday, temperatures should rise a bit to around 30 in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure moves of the region on Friday. This will provide some southerly flow allowing temperatures to continue to warm with 20`s and 30`s on average Friday through Monday. Several features look to impact our region weather wise. Attention first turns to a low pressure system tracking from the southeast United States to off the east coast. This system looks rather disorganized preventing a sharper turn northward, the lack of blocking also hinders a northward turn needed to bring our region more in the way of widespread precipitation. A small cluster of ensemble members and the 00z 1/28 GFS bring the edge of the precipitation shield all the way northwestward to the Southern Tier but this solution is more unlikely at this time. For now, will keep any impact of this system out of the forecast at this time besides some clouds. Additional weak shortwaves in northwest flow should bring our region some snow and perhaps rain showers later Saturday through Sunday. Lake effect snow showers are possible as well at some point depending on the wind direction. Winds Sunday could gust to 20 mph or so in the afternoon Sunday. High pressure builds into the area again on Monday likely resulting in a slow clearing trend as moisture from Lake Ontario could linger. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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630 am update... Northwest winds will continue into this evening bringing lake effect snow showers mostly to the NY terminals. West to northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts early this morning becoming northwest at 10 kts late morning and afternoon, with some afternoon gusts. This evening dropping to 5 to 10 kts. Ceilings are MVFR to IFR. ITH/BGM will be the lowest at IFR at times this morning, but predominant fuel alternate MVFR into tonight. Rest of sites are high end MVFR only due to ceilings but ceilings could at times dip into fuel alternate. Slow improvement to VFR late tonight starting at RME then AVP. Outlook... Wednesday through Friday...VFR. Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...MWG LONG TERM...MWG AVIATION...TAC

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