Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011154 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 654 AM EST Mon Mar 1 2021 .SYNOPSIS... A strong cold front will move across the area this afternoon and evening. A much colder air mass, strong to damaging wind gusts, and scattered snow squalls will occur behind the front. Lake effect snow showers will then continue into Tuesday morning. Relatively quiet weather and warmer temperatures return Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... 650 AM Update: Made minor adjustments to PoPs for the next few hours, but otherwise the forecast remains on track. 500 AM Update: Overall, a very active near term forecast period is expected with rain showers this morning followed by scattered snow squalls this afternoon through this evening, strong to damaging winds this afternoon through tonight, and very cold temperatures tonight through Tuesday. Certainly, March will be coming in like a lion. A cold front passing through the area continues to bring rain showers to the area this morning. As expected, temperatures have remained above freezing and therefore precipitation is just rain...for now. Any lingering rain showers begins to mix with snow as the morning progresses. A brief lull in the precipitation is expected late this morning. Of greater concern is a secondary Arctic front that will push through the area this afternoon into the evening. This strong Arctic front will create three hazards: scattered snow squalls (this afternoon into this evening), strong to damaging winds (this afternoon through early Tuesday morning), and bitter cold temperatures with dangerous wind chills tonight. As the squalls diminish in intensity by the late evening, lake effect snow showers then persist in Central NY through early Tuesday morning. Snow Squalls: As the Arctic front pushes through, lapse rates will steepen, especially over Central NY. With some solar heating possible through the clouds, some weak surface-based CAPE could develop in the late afternoon. Timing for these snow squalls looks to be from the mid afternoon (around 3PM) into the evening (around 9-10PM). This will be especially problematic for this evening`s commute. Any squalls will have the potential to cause rapid changes in road conditions, low visibility, and up to a quick inch of snow. Strong to Damaging Winds: Confidence has significantly increased for strong to damaging winds to impact the majority of the area this afternoon through tonight. Greatest threat for damaging winds (occasional wind gusts up to 60 mph) will be across portions of Madison, southern Oneida, and Otsego counties and therefore we have issued a High Wind Warning for these counties from 1PM this afternoon to 10AM Tuesday. The rest of our forecast area will be under a Wind Advisory this afternoon into Tuesday morning for occasional wind gusts up to 50 mph. Winds will increase this afternoon and be strongest this evening through tonight. Monitor the forecast for updates, as it is possible the High Wind Warning may need to be expanded westward. From a forecast perspective, mixing heights are forecast to rise to around 700mb. Forecast BUFKIT soundings show momentum transfer of around 50-55 knots at some locations. In addition, lapse rates will be steep, sharp rise/fall pressure couplets are expected, and MAV wind speeds of at least 25kts are expected. These are some thresholds that have been highlighted in a local study here for high wind events. Bitter cold temperatures and wind chills: Behind the Arctic front, an anomalously cold airmass will spill into the area with 850mb temperatures dropping to -20C to -25C. Low temperatures tonight are expected to be in the lower single digits to lower teens, with the single digit readings mainly concentrated over Oneida-Madison counties-the Catskills. As previously described, winds will be an issue overnight as well. The combination of the cold temperatures and the high winds will create dangerous wind chills of 15 below to 20 below zero for these areas. Therefore, a Wind Chill Advisory has also been issued for tonight/early Tuesday morning for Oneida, Madison, Otsego, and Delaware counties. Outside of the Wind Chill Advisory, wind chills will still be quite cold, generally between 0 and 15 below zero. Tuesday will be a much quieter, but cold day. Any lingering lake effect snow showers southeast of Lake Ontario taper off by the afternoon as high pressure moves in. With the cold airmass still in place, highs will be below normal, mainly in the lower 20s to near 30. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 5 AM Update... A weak Canadian low will bring a couple weak waves through the region, temporarily moderating temperatures into Wednesday, before setting up a switch back to colder weather for later this week. High pressure briefly passes Tuesday evening, with decoupling of wind and radiational cooling of an Arctic air mass down into mid teens to mid 20s, though a few cold spots east if I-81 in Central NY could get closer to 10 degrees. That said, warm air advection will already be going on aloft, as a quick-moving low crosses from Manitoba all the way to southeast Ontario by dawn Wednesday. We can expect at least some high clouds reaching Central NY in the isentropic lift ahead of that low, and perhaps even a bit of light snow mainly north of the Thruway. Temperatures will also generally creep a bit late Tuesday night. The low weakens further while running into what remains of our ridge Wednesday. However, its associated wave aloft will still sink its lingering cold front back across the area late Wednesday through Wednesday night. So after a fairly benign milder day with increasing clouds from the north, and highs of upper 30s to upper 40s, temperatures will drop into mainly 20s by dawn Thursday. Northwesterly winds will also start to produce at least scattered lake effect snow showers Wednesday night, southeast of Lake Ontario. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 5 AM Update... Thursday through at least the first half of the weekend, will be defined by a deep cold cutoff stacked Arctic low wobbling over far eastern Canada into New England. With our region in cyclonic flow on the cold side of this system, this yields a prolonged period of chilly northwest to west-northwest low level flow, and resultant persistent multi-banded lake effect snow showers off of Lake Ontario and the Finger Lakes. High temperatures will generally be 20s to mid 30s Thursday through Saturday with overnight lows in teens-near 20 but with some single digits possible especially in northern Oneida. As we head into early next week, models generally depict the stacked low opening into an amplified trough that gradually lifts out. However, they greatly disagree on what happens from there. Another wave will simply move back in to develop another cutoff low, as per the ECMWF, or if instead we can get into a moderating southwest flow as per the Canadian and eventually GFS. Regardless, timing of such details is also very uncertain at this point. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Low level moisture will bring IFR-or-worse conditions this morning to all terminals except for KELM, KSYR, and KRME. KBGM will likely see the lowest conditions. Conditions begin to improve to MVFR by the late morning/early afternoon. Snow showers and squalls are possible at most of the Central NY terminals late this afternoon into this evening. In any squalls, brief airport minimum vsby restrictions will be possible. For now, included a TEMPO group for 1SM vsby at KRME, KSYR, and KITH during the time period squalls are most likely, but vsbys will likely briefly be lower. Lake effect snow showers then continue in Central NY through the end of the TAF period, bringing lingering MVFR restrictions to the Central NY terminals. Outlook... Tuesday...Some ceiling restrictions possible Tuesday morning at the Central NY terminals due to lingering lake effect clouds, then becoming VFR by the afternoon. Wednesday...Quiet weather with VFR conditions. Thursday into Friday...Occasional lake effect snow showers may bring occasional restrictions to the Central NY terminals. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...Wind Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ040-044-047-048-072. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for PAZ038-039-043. NY...Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-018-044-045-057-062. Wind Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ015>017-022>025-055-056. High Wind Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ036-037-046. Wind Chill Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EST Tuesday for NYZ009-036-037-046-057. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BJG NEAR TERM...BJG SHORT TERM...MDP LONG TERM...MDP AVIATION...BJG/MPK

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