Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 190136 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 936 PM EDT Sun Aug 18 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Southerly winds will pull hot and humid air into NY and PA on Monday with thunderstorms possible again during the afternoon. However, storms will be mostly diurnally driven on Monday with the lack of any significant forcing. More showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday and especially Wednesday as as a strong cold front pushes through Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Surface high pressure and cool conditions for the end of the week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 935 pm update... Thunderstorms have ended across the region with only a few light rain showers flaring up every now and then...mainly over ne PA. This trend will likely continue through the night as the boundary layer becomes, and remains fairly stable. Some clear, combined with recent rain and a rather moist near surface layer may lead to some low clouds and patchy fog later tonight and early Monday morning. Still expecting some convective development again tomorrow late morning and into the afternoon...with maybe a slightly earlier end to the storms with a stronger area of high pressure moving in from the west later in the day. Another hot and humid day tomorrow with scattered afternoon strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Previous Discussion... More widespread thunderstorms developing across the region today as a short wave crosses. Some storms could severe, as CAPE values top out above 1500 J/kg and 0-6km bulk shear of 30 to 35 knots. There is also a threat for flash flooding into this evening, with forecast soundings showing PWATs topping out over 1.75" and short Corfidi vectors indicate a good possibility for back building cells/training. Southwest return flow pushes hot and humid air into NY and PA for Monday. Temperatures will rise to between 85 and 90 degrees across the Twin Tiers with heat indices possibly reaching the mid-90s. Another round of thunderstorms is likely during the afternoon peak heating, but any perturbations pushing through the westerly zonal flow aloft tomorrow appear weak, so forcing will be quite limited. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Surface high pressure pushes over the NE U.S. with upper trough starting to dip down from Ontario Tuesday evening. Highest chances for thunderstorms will be across the southern forecast area during max heating, but rain chances will depend on positioning of the high. Euro keeps most of the region dry, with most rainfall to the south of the area. Tend to lean more towards the Euro solution as the GFS seems to be digging upper trough too quickly into the region Tuesday afternoon. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... No major changes made to the long term forecast with cooler high pressure pushing into the region towards the end of the week after a cold front passes Wednesday into Thursday. 345 AM Update... Warmth and humidity sneak back into the area one more time Wednesday, in southwest flow ahead of an approaching cold front. This will provide fuel for a likely batch of thunderstorms as the front passes through sometime in the late Wednesday- Wednesday night time frame. Some potential for stronger storms from higher shear values but details will be sorted out with more confidence in coming days. It would not be unheard of for a pre-frontal trough to complicate the set-up as often happens in our region. There is still at least a small chance for lingering convection Thursday, but most model guidance has post-frontal cool and dry air advection quickly getting underway which will lead to a quiet period lasting right into next weekend. Previous discussion... Used National Blend of Models (NBM) as a starting point for this period. All synoptic models show a large upper trough building into the northeast U.S by Friday with a large canadian high pressure following the trough. This trough will push a cold front through the region from Wednesday night to Thursday night depending on which model you look at. So used the blend to populate the POPs in this time period. All synoptic models and the NBM agree that cooler and drier air covers the region for Friday and Saturday so have POPs less than 15 percent both days. && .AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Most of the showers and storms have come to an end and moved east of the area. However, there is a second batch of convection trying to develop over wrn NY...which could have the potential to impact several of the NY terminals. At this time not confident enough to add to the TAFs, and will monitor the trends and add to the forecast if showers/storms approach any terminal. Conditions should stabilize enough to bring most of the convection to an end as the evening progresses. Forecast confidence remains on the low side overnight and into early Monday morning regarding the potential for low clouds and fog. At this point will lean toward some MVFR/fuel alternate restrictions given the recent rain at most terminals and the presence of an abundance of low level moisture. Cannot rule out the potential for IFR fog...especially at locations that saw saturating rain today. S/SW winds 5-10 kt this evening will become light 5 kt or less tonight before shifting to the W/NW Monday afternoon around 5-10 kt and a few gusts to 15 kt possible. Outlook... Monday night to Thursday...Restrictions possible in showers and storms. Friday...VFR conditions likely. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...BJT/MPK SHORT TERM...MPK/MDP LONG TERM...MPK/MDP AVIATION...BJT/MPK

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