Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 242328 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 728 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep conditions quiet tonight through Thursday. A warm front and low pressure system will move into our region Thursday night through Friday night with steady rain expected through the day Friday...tapering to showers Friday night. The pattern remains on the cool and wet side through the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 pm update... High pressure will crest over the area tonight with clear skies and light to calm winds. This will push the clouds in the northeast out of the area this evening. Temperatures will fall into the 30s which is where the dewpoints are now. Dewpoints won`t change a whole lot at the surface. Some patchy fog is possible in south central NY and northeast PA but shouldn`t be widespread. On Thursday, clouds will increase slowly from the south. A shower may make it into NEPA late afternoon. With sunshine and warm air advection temperatures will rise into the 60s. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 pm update... This will be a wet period as a large surface low pressure in the Ohio Valley moves over CNY Friday. Models have slowed this down a little from yesterday`s solution. A digging upper level trough slowly moves into the eastern quarter of the country. It becomes centered over our area late Friday. A deep southerly flow will bring rain and moisture all the way from the Gulf of Mexico into our area Starting Thursday evening and lasting through Friday. Most of this will be light with some heavier embedded rain. Friday instability indices only show a small chance of any thunderstorms. CAPE is best in the south and then only a hundred or two and narrow. Temperatures will fall only into the 40s Thursday night as dewpoints rise with the rain falling. Friday highs get to around 60 with dewpoints around 50. Friday evening into early Saturday, a fairly deep layer of moisture will continue to entrain into the deepening low pressure system moving from the eastern Great Lakes into northern New England. As this occurs a cold Canadian air mass...850mb temps around -5 to -6 deg C...will get drawn in from the nw across Lake Ontario and trigger some lake enhanced lake rain showers over a good portion of the forecast area Friday evening. As the system pulls out and the drier air moves in through Saturday morning rain showers will taper off from west to east. Additional rainfall amounts will be on the light side...generally less than a tenth of an inch. The cold air will continue to pour in on Saturday with rather windy conditions...sustained around 15 to 20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph... and temperatures in central NY on the cool side, only rising into the upper 40s. Temperatures in ne PA will climb into the lower to mid 50s with more sunshine. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 300 pm update... The next system begins to push in from the west Saturday evening/night, but with slightly less available moisture to work with. However, the residual cold air mass may actually be cold enough to trigger a mix of snow and rain in the higher elevations of central NY. Not expecting any snow accumulations and only minimal rainfall amounts as well. The pattern Sunday through Tuesday remains a little unsettled with a weak wave and rain showers on Sunday...a brief quiet period Sunday night into Monday...and another round of showers late Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures will remain on the cooler side overall early next week with highs in the 50s close to 60...and overnight lows in the mid 30 to mid 40s. && .AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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A stubborn lower stratus deck remains at KRME with MVFR ceilings. The stratus deck was beginning to mix out with late day diurnal heating at KSYR and ceilings have climbed to 3500 feet here. We expect the low clouds to continue to erode this evening and clear out of KSYR at 02z and KRME at 03z with VFR conditions in these terminals overnight. Rest of TAFs will be VFR under cirrus through the night and Thursday morning. VFR mid clouds arrive at KELM and KAVP from mid to late afternoon Thursday with KAVP dropping to around 4500 feet late in the TAF period as next system approaches. The only other issue as high pressure moves in tonight is the potential for some patchy fog. KELM has the best chance late tonight. We have continued a temporary group for MVFR there between 08z and 12z. Medium confidence. Northwest winds 5 to 12 knots early in the TAF period will go light and variable overnight. Thursday winds will be south at around 5 kts or so. Outlook... Thursday afternoon into evening... VFR. Thursday midnight into Friday... Restrictions likely with showers. Friday night... Becoming VFR south to north. Saturday into Saturday night... Predominately VFR. Saturday overnight into Sunday... Restrictions possible in rain showers. Monday... Mainly VFR.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...TAC NEAR TERM...TAC SHORT TERM...BJT/TAC LONG TERM...BJT AVIATION...DJN

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