National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office

• Home
• Site Map
• News
• Organization
• Search for: NWS All NOAA 

-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 080008
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
808 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will bring showers
to the area tonight. Another round of showers are expected late
Wednesday night into Thursday as the next low pressure system
tracks across the Northeast U.S. Cool and windy conditions can
be expected late in the week with the low meandering near the
Gulf of Maine. High pressure builds into the region this
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

805 PM update...

An area of showers is tracking across the forecast area this
evening. Much of the initial precipitation did not reach the
ground, as dew point depressions remain higher than 20 degrees
in many places. As low level moisture increases, the showers
will become more widespread late tonight. QPF will be light.

Previous discussion...

The area of high pressure that was responsible for the sunny and
dry conditions the past few days will quickly lose its
influence on the region tonight as it progresses farther
offshore. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the Upper
Midwest this afternoon will progress quickly to the east-
southeast tonight. While this surface low tracks across the
Great Lakes this evening, a warm front will lift northward
toward the PA-NY border. The latest guidance has come into good
agreement with this front struggling to make it much farther
north than the Southern Tier of NY just past midnight before the
low tracks through.

The leading edge of the shower activity along the warm front is
expected to arrive in our far western zones toward sunset and
overspread the area from the west to east later in the evening.
Showers tonight should generally be light and not widespread.
However, a brief heavier shower or isolated thunderstorm is
possible in the warm sector south of the warm front late this
evening and overnight (best chance in the Southern Tier/NEPA
between 12-4 AM).

A cold front will quickly move southeastward through the area during
the early morning hours as winds shift abruptly out of the northwest
in wake of the low passage. PoPs quickly decrease behind the front.
However, with a moist post-frontal flow off the Great Lakes, low
clouds and isolated showers/sprinkles should persist through much of
the day tomorrow. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 50s (except
lower 60s in the Wyoming Valley) are generally a few degrees above
climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The next storm system will quickly approach from the northwest
Wednesday night. PoPs increase from west to east overnight into
early Thursday morning as the leading edge of showers arrive.

The surface low is expected to deepen on Thursday as it moves
across the Northeast U.S. PoPs and QPF are higher with this
next system than the one tonight owing to a more amplified
trough, higher PWATs, and overall better dynamics. Several
hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and moderate lift could support a
narrow/broken line of convection just ahead of the cold front
from about mid morning to early afternoon Thursday (especially
across the Wyoming Valley). Despite a strong wind field aloft,
do not anticipate much of a severe threat with model soundings
definitively showing convection elevated in nature. We currently
do not anticipate any hydrology issues with a showers/storms
quickly progressing eastward and with forecast rainfall amounts
generally a half inch or less. Isolated gusts above 30 mph are
possible in southerly flow ahead of the front early Thursday.
Northwest winds behind the front will strengthen as the low
deepens over New England. Deep mixing in the afternoon could
support peak gusts of 35-45 mph, especially late in the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
200 PM update...

Not much change to the long range from the overnight update. Wind
speeds were increased for the day Friday due to steepening lapse
rates up to 700 mb, mixing down those higher velocities. Right now
the winds are just below advisory criteria but will have to be
monitored for a potential wind advisory.

Temperatures were also increased a few degrees along with lowering
pops late Sunday into Monday as the upper level trough has slowed
along with a more potent short wave developing in the Southeastern
US that will help advect warmer air further northward.

Previous update at 330 AM...

An active pattern continues with big swings in temperatures.
Saturday surface high pressure moves in while upper level
heights rise. Warmer air aloft also. This will finally shut down
the rain and snow showers Friday night and Saturday morning.

Sunday a deep southwest flow will bring high temperatures in
the 50s with rain showers but also steady rain Sunday night.

For Monday probably still dealing with showers as an upper level
trough starts to move into the Great Lakes. It should still be
in the 40s and 50s Sunday night into Monday. Models show
uncertainty on the timing and strength of the upper level
trough.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Low pressure that is currently over Central Michigan will dive
to the SE tonight into Western NY and across NE PA before
exiting the coast south of Long Island tomorrow morning. This
system will bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms
overnight, but confidence was too low at this time to include
thunderstorms in the TAFs.

Expect ceiling and visibility restrictions overnight through Wed
morning, with IFR or worse possible in heavier showers.

Low ceilings may persist into late Wed morning or early
afternoon, but we may see some improvement to VFR to the
north...KRME and KSYR by noon. Otherwise, most locations remain
MVFR into the afternoon.

Finally, low level wind shear is going to be possible overnight
just ahead of the low pressure system at KELM, KBGM and KAVP
through early Wed morning.

Outlook...

Wednesday night...Ceilings lifting to VFR in the evening.

Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers associated with a
slow moving low pressure system. Windy.

Thursday night through Friday night: Restrictions likely with
rain and snow showers, windy.

Saturday...Showers early, then becoming dry with minimal
restrictions.

Sunday...Additional restrictions possible as another low
pressure system approaches the region.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JRK/MWG
NEAR TERM...DJP/JRK
SHORT TERM...JRK
LONG TERM...AJG/TAC
AVIATION...MPK