Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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536 FXUS61 KBGM 242332 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 732 PM EDT Fri May 24 2024 .SYNOPSIS... The quiet conditions will continue through Saturday morning. A frontal boundary will bring a round of showers and storms to the region Saturday afternoon and night. This system sweeps through quickly as Sunday will be mostly dry before the next system moves in late Sunday night and into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/... 230 PM Update... High pressure will remain in control through the overnight hours as well as into Saturday morning. Clear skies and calm winds should allow for efficient radiational cooling. Patchy valley fog may during the early morning hours Saturday. Lows are expected to be in the 40s and 50s, which is below most model guidance. The first half of Saturday will be dry but a frontal system will be approaching the region. There is some uncertainty on when convection may begin, but the latest CAMs show activity during the early afternoon for far western portions of the Southern Tier and Finger Lakes regions. SPC has a marginal risk for severe weather for most counties west of I-81. Model guidance has 1000 to 2000 J/kg with 25 to 35 kts of shear. This will be enough to support some isolated strong to severe storms. Strong winds and large hail are the main threats as conditions do not look favorable for any spin ups. Along I-81 and further east, conditions will not be as unstable so the threat for strong thunderstorms is low in these areas. With westerly flow present and skies starting off mostly sunny, temperatures will climb into the upper 70s to low 80s. While there is uncertainty on the timing, all guidance agree that this system will exit the region overnight, leading to cool and quiet conditions late Saturday night/early Sunday morning. With the added moisture from the showers and storms as well as skies clearing out some, patchy fog/low stratus may develop. Overnight lows will be in the mid 50s to low 60s, but could be cooler where skies clear the most. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... 230 PM update... The short term starts off quiet with mid and upper level ridging in place keeping the region mostly dry and warm. A deepening area of low pressure in the central US will be lifting a warm front into our area later in the day with increasing clouds aloft. Precipitation looks to hold off until Sunday night. Chances of showers and thunderstorms increase through Sunday night as strong warm air advection. Forecast soundings show some weak elevated instability developing but with the lack of steep mid level lapse rates, storms will stay on the weaker side and not too widespread. Monday has a better chance for widespread showers and thunderstorms. Much of NEPA and upstate NY will be in the warm sector of a low moving through the Great Lakes into Canada with a cold front moving through in the afternoon. 0-6 km shear is looking to be between 30 to 40 knots but CAPE is on the lower end with a grand ensemble mean of just under 1000 J/kg with most ensemble members 500 J/kg and lower. Forecast soundings are pretty saturated so clouds will limit day time heating and with the lack of any steep lapse rates, CAPE will be long and skinny. Severe threat looks pretty low as of now with the marginal parameters but heavy rain and flash flooding may be more of a concern. PWATs get over 1.5 inches but with some directional shear in the low levels helps limit backbuilding of storms but rainfall rates will be high with any storm. With little capping in the warm sector and the cold front moves through late in the day, several rounds of storms are looking possible so any location that gets hit multiple rounds of storms have the best chance at seeing any flash flood problems. Chances of rain dwindle behind the front Monday night with drier and cooler air advecting in. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... 230 PM update... The long term is looking cooler as a long wave trough slowly moves in. Shortwaves embedded in the flow will still lead to unsettled weather. Chances were added each afternoon even on quieter days as the cold air aloft coupled with the strong solar heating plus greenup will help destabilize the atmosphere in the afternoons. QPF amounts are not very high in each shortwave this next week as there is not too much moisture to work with being under the upper level trough and most of the moisture shunted to the south but ensemble means on days 3 to 7 do get over an inch for most of the area. && .AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
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Mostly VFR conditions are expected overnight, with some valley fog expected to develop. Confidence remains low for fog at ELM, as dewpoints mixed down to the mid-40s during peak heating. But with clear and calm conditions, temperatures could well bottom out close to this point, thus kept the TEMPO groups with lower visbys in the TAF. Conditions will improve by mid-morning, with VFR and light south winds prevailing. A line of showers and thunderstorms will push west to east through Central NY between 19Z and 23Z, with the highest confidence in TS at ITH, ELM, and BGM. Thunderstorms will tend to outrun instability in the evening, and will be weakening as they approach AVP, but would not likely reach there until right around 00Z Sun, and are not mentioned in the current TAF. Outlook... Saturday Night... Restrictions possible in fog, especially in river valleys. Sunday...Mainly VFR expected. Monday through Wednesday... Restrictions possible with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
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