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000
FXUS61 KBGM 270223
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1023 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will build into the area with drier air for
tonight and Thursday. Another frontal boundary and area of low
pressure will give us another chance of showers and
thunderstorms late Friday into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...

1020 PM UPDATE...Showers have finally moved out of the area
this evening and drier air is streaming in behind them. Updated
the grids this evening to reflect the current trends in weather
and temps. Previous discussion below.

Rest of this afternoon into this evening:

A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated
with a trough of low pressure will move through the region
late this afternoon into the evening. These storms are currently
producing some gusty winds with a few reports of tree damage in
the Homer area of Cortland County. The HRW NSSL appears to have
the best handle of storm coverage and timing with the highest
chances across the I-81 corridor in NY through the late
afternoon shifting into the Southern Catskills and far NE PA
briefly early this evening. A few locations could see a quick
1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain but these storms are moving eastward at
a decent clip. A look at modeled soundings still shows some hail
growth throughout the CAPE profile, so a few of these storms
could contain some hail. Shear however is still limited for
widespread strong to severe storms.

Tonight: Skies should clear with light winds behind the band of
storms. Dewpoint depressions look to stay wide enough to
prevent fog formation for most locations overnight though.
However, it can not be ruled out in locations that see some
heavy downpours late this afternoon. Lows tonight look to fall
to around 60.


Thursday and Thursday night:

High pressure to our south will likely have enough
influence on our weather pattern for a precipitation
free period However, clouds will likely some Thursday
night given the approach of a cold front heading southeast
toward the region from Canada. Southwesterly flow on the backside
of the high will result in another warm day. With 925 mb
temperatures modeled around 20C, most locations should get into
the low 80`s. Lows Thursday night look a couple of degrees
warmer than tonight given more clouds and weak southerly flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
3 PM Update...

A wave of low pressure is dropping southeast through the Great
Lakes on Friday. A warm front will move through during the day
but with the lack of moisture it will remain mainly dry until
late in the day. At that time a weak front drops southeast
followed by a much stronger front Saturday. Air mass will be
unstable with dewpoints in the low 60s and temperatures in the
80s starting Friday afternoon. The best chance will be closer
to the surface low over southeast Ontario. Cape may exceed 1k
with 40 kts of deep shear. In NEPA conditions are more stable
with less wind. SPC has the area in a marginal threat again.
Threat will be damaging winds mostly late afternoon to evening.

This low moves into northern New England Saturday. Meanwhile
the low starts to become stacked as the upper level low drops
into southeast Canada from Hudson Bay. Saturday, more showers
and thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front. Models
disagree on the timing. Highs cooler and only around 80 with
more clouds and showers.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
3 pm update...

Not much change in the long term period. Mostly unsettled
weather continues. Sunday on the west side of an upper level
trough and northwest flow. Still some showers and thunderstorms
possible. Sunday night and Monday may be the only dry period as
high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. After that
back into a zonal flow with a cold front dropping southeast
through the area. Model disagreement on timing. Some models are
slowly keeping it dry into Monday night and others are faster so
Wednesday could be dry behind the front.

Temperatures slowly warm this period. Highs start in the 70s
Sunday then slowly rise to around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows
in the mid and upper 50s Sunday night rise to the low 60s
Tuesday night.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Conditions will be mainly VFR throughout the TAF period with the
exception of valley fog impacting the KELM terminal between
08-12Z. Winds will be light from the W/NW tonight and increase
to 10 to 15 kt with FEW-SCT fair weather cumulus developing in
the afternoon under a building surface high pressure. Winds
become light and variable or calm after 22Z.

Outlook...

Thursday evening through midday Friday...Mainly VFR.

Friday afternoon through Sunday...Occasional chances for
scattered showers-thunderstorms and associated restrictions.

Sunday night and Monday... VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DGM/MWG
NEAR TERM...DGM/MWG
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...TAC
AVIATION...BJT/MWG