Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 220230 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 930 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019 .SYNOPSIS... Colder northwest flow will bring a few snow showers or flurries to central New York overnight. A high pressure ridge then brings dry weather to the entire area Friday through Saturday before the next low pressure system brings a round of precipitation later this weekend. Strong, gusty winds are anticipated for much of the region Sunday into Monday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 930 PM update... Clouds continue dropping south this evening across central New York as the flow becomes more northwest. The southern edge of the cloud shield is currently working into the southern tier. This cloud shield will work into the northern tier of Pennsylvania overnight but not drop as far south as the Wyoming Valley. Local radars show flurries/very light snow showers east of Lake Ontario which will drop south to areas southeast of Lake Ontario overnight as temperatures at 850mb drop to -11C. Current forecast in good shape. 300 PM Update... Generally quiet and seasonable weather expected for the near term period. Mostly cloudy north this evening, trending to mostly clear over northeast PA. Temperatures fall back into the 30s with northwest winds 10-20 mph. A reinforcing cold front moves through tonight veering the flow northwesterly, with 850mb temperatures falling to around -11C. It will become mostly cloudy area wide overnight. There will be just enough moisture around, enhanced by Lake Ontario and the Finger lakes for a few light snow showers or flurries in Central NY. Any snow amounts will be very light; less than a half inch. Colder with lows in the 20s. NW winds 8-15 mph, slowly decrease overnight. Friday: Chilly northwest flow remains over the forecast area. Stubborn lake effect flurries and clouds linger through at least the morning hours for Central NY, with partly cloudy skies for NE PA. Should see some breaks of sun during the afternoon across much of Central NY, as the cloud deck thins and scatters with high pressure moving in from the west. Highs will reach into the 30s. Lighter NW winds between 5 to 10 mph. Friday night: Mostly clear, chilly and quiet as a surface high builds directly over the forecast area. Lows in the 10s to around 20. Winds light and variable. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... 3PM Update... Saturday...After a quiet start to the day, a powerful storm spinning toward the Ohio Valley will spread rain into our forecast area Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the lower-40s during the day, but colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a mix of rain and freezing rain or sleet to fall along our eastern NY counties, mainly over the Western Catskills. Sunday...The cyclone will track into Northern Michigan on Sunday and pull very mild air and rain showers into NY and PA. Temperatures will climb into the lower-50 Sunday afternoon with warmer temperatures possible along the lake plain, before the cyclone drags a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain showers over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold front will be accompanied by very gusty winds. At this time, the models suggest potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph over a large portion of the forecast area. Higher wind speeds are likely from the Central Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and into the high terrain of the Western Mohawk Valley and Western Catskills. Stay tuned for statements regarding the potential wind event. Monday...Polar air behind the cyclone will pour into NY and PA during this period. Scattered lake effect snow showers are anticipated over northern sections of NY. Temperatures will reach the lower or middle-30s on Monday, then fall into the teens Monday night. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... 300 PM Update Some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible on Tuesday, mainly in the morning in CNY, then ending as high pressure slides to the east and winds shift to a more easterly direction. Then a weak wave may move into the area from the midwest, which may bring a chance of light snow Tuesday night into Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty regarding the track, timing, and strength of this system. Then some lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday night in CNY. High pressure then likely builds in for Thursday, bringing drier conditions. Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens and lower 20s. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak boundary will drop through the region later this evening shifting the winds to the northwest and bringing lake clouds across central New York. At KSYR/KRME, overcast skies around 4k feet will lower to MVFR around 06Z then improve to VFR by late morning Friday. At KITH/KELM/KBGM, scattered high clouds will be followed by MVFR ceilings beginning around 04Z. Conditions are expected to improve to VFR by late morning. At KAVP, VFR conditions are forecast through the TAF period. West winds around 10 knots becoming northwest overnight and continuing through Friday. Outlook... Saturday...VFR as high pressure builds overhead. Saturday night through Sunday morning...Restrictions likely with rain, perhaps briefly mixed with sleet at first. Low level wind shear likely Saturday night from strong SSW low level jet. Sunday afternoon through Monday...Rain showers changing back to snow showers but also mainly impacting the NY terminals with intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected, especially KSYR. Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MJM NEAR TERM...MJM/RRM SHORT TERM...DJP LONG TERM...BJG AVIATION...RRM

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