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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 281139
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
639 AM EST Tue Jan 28 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Light accumulating snow showers will continue today mainly
across Central NY. High pressure and seasonable temperatures are
expected with dry and partly sunny weather, Wednesday through
Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
6 am update...
Warmer and cloudier than had so adjusted. Also snow showers
extending to our southern border so upped the pops.

3 am update...
The forecast problem of the day is the reports of freezing rain
and unknown precipitation amongst the scattered snow showers in
most of the county warning area. This is due to saturated low
levels not high enough to reach the best dendrites to keep it
all snow. Temperatures are cooling some so mostly snow typical
now. Liquid amounts are very light on the order of a hundredth
or a trace. Will continue to cover the freezing precip with a
special weather statement through the morning commute.

snow amounts will also be low given the saturation depth and
temperatures. The low level flow will not tap into Lake Huron
given the NW flow shifting to north. There is some weak
enhancement downwind of each of the Finger Lakes. The highest
snow amounts of only an inch or two will be over the high
terrain between Ithaca and Syracuse. This is for the calendar
day today. There could be a weak uptick in the showers this
afternoon with diurnal heating and a weak cold front. Highs from
around 30 to the mid 30s. Winds around 10 mph with some gusts.

Tonight and Wednesday high pressure starts to build in shifting
the low level winds to the north then northeast cutting off the
lake effect snow. Low temperatures tonight mostly upper teens to
lower 20s but as usual Oneida County will be colder.

Wednesday increasing sunshine but high temperatures similar to
today. The high is dropping south with dry arctic air.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure will gradually build into the region resulting in
mostly clear skies and light winds. Some uncertainty with low
temperatures both Wednesday and Thursday nights are present for
locations that have some snow cover remaining. Those of you who do
not have snow on the ground should stay closer to 10 for an
overnight low while those who do will see lows several degrees
colder Wednesday night. Low temperatures should be several degrees
higher Thursday night. With sunshine on Thursday, temperatures
should rise a bit to around 30 in the afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure moves of the region on Friday. This will provide some
southerly flow allowing temperatures to continue to warm with 20`s
and 30`s on average Friday through Monday. Several features look to
impact our region weather wise. Attention first turns to a low
pressure system tracking from the southeast United States to off the
east coast. This system looks rather disorganized preventing a
sharper turn northward, the lack of blocking also hinders a
northward turn needed to bring our region more in the way of
widespread precipitation. A small cluster of ensemble members and
the 00z 1/28 GFS bring the edge of the precipitation shield all the
way northwestward to the Southern Tier but this solution is more
unlikely at this time. For now, will keep any impact of this system
out of the forecast at this time besides some clouds.

Additional weak shortwaves in northwest flow should bring our region
some snow and perhaps rain showers later Saturday through Sunday.
Lake effect snow showers are possible as well at some point
depending on the wind direction. Winds Sunday could gust to 20 mph
or so in the afternoon Sunday. High pressure builds into the area
again on Monday likely resulting in a slow clearing trend as
moisture from Lake Ontario could linger.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
630 am update...

Northwest winds will continue into this evening bringing lake
effect snow showers mostly to the NY terminals. West to
northwest winds at 5 to 10 kts early this morning becoming
northwest at 10 kts late morning and afternoon, with some
afternoon gusts. This evening dropping to 5 to 10 kts.

Ceilings are MVFR to IFR. ITH/BGM will be the lowest at IFR at
times this morning, but predominant fuel alternate MVFR into
tonight.

Rest of sites are high end MVFR only due to ceilings but
ceilings could at times dip into fuel alternate. Slow
improvement to VFR late tonight starting at RME then AVP.

Outlook...
Wednesday through Friday...VFR.

Saturday...Restrictions possible in rain and snow showers.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...MWG
LONG TERM...MWG
AVIATION...TAC