Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 011843 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 243 PM EDT Thu Jun 1 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will push west tomorrow and a backdoor cold front will increase chances for rain late tomorrow afternoon through Saturday. Cooler temperatures are expected across the area this weekend and into the first half of next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... 235 PM Update... High pressure remains overhead this afternoon with hot and dry conditions. By tonight, ridging will start to shift westward and will continue pushing west tomorrow, however it is also looking like the warmest day of the week with widespread 90s possible. Did not warm the high temperatures too much over models as there is more moisture and thus a better chance at clouds developing during the afternoon, especially east of I81. Instability will be maximized east of the I81 corridor tomorrow afternoon with forecast soundings showing MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg. Also, a weak 500 mb shortwave will be pushing in from the north as the upper level ridge continues moving farther west. Hard to say at this time how far west the storms will make it tomorrow afternoon and evening as mid level capping increases the farther west you go. Wind shear is very weak, however there is plenty of dry air with model soundings showing an inverted V in the low levels with large dew point depressions. This could support a few of dry microburst as thunderstorms weaken and current CAM runs of the HRRR and NAMNest are also showing this as a possibility. Showers and thunderstorms will start to decrease in coverage tomorrow night with the loss of heating. However, as upper trough drops southward into New England, further height falls may support more shower activity overnight and into Saturday morning. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
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240 PM Update... Over the weekend, an upper-level low will move through the Northeast. North to northwesterly flow will advect cooler air into the region through the weekend. Highs will go from the 70s on Saturday to 60s and 70s on Sunday. Lows are expected to be in the 40s both nights. Models continue to show some showers for Saturday, and that continues to look to be the case in the morning hours. Some model guidance favors drier conditions by Saturday afternoon, which will then limit precipitation chances. BUFKIT soundings are dry in the mid-levels with very little moisture near the surface. Because of this, PoPs were greatly reduced below most guidance, especially Saturday afternoon. Then through the rest of the weekend, PoPs were capped at just slight chance since high pressure will fill in behind the departing low. The trend is leaning toward a dry second half of the weekend. Based on all of this, the weekend is not looking as wet as previously forecasted and the search for more widespread, beneficial rainfall continues.
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240 PM Update... The aforementioned low moves out to sea to start next week. An upper- level ridge will quickly pass through on Monday as precipitation chances will be limited during the daytime hours. Another upper low will move into the region Monday night and hang around through the rest of the long-term forecast period. This system will keep conditions cool with highs only in the 60s and 70s. There will be multiple chances for rain showers as the system spins over the upper Northeast. While instability will be limited, afternoon thunderstorms cannot be ruled out on Tuesday.
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&& .AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... High pressure continues through tonight and into tomorrow, with light winds and VFR conditions. Outlook... Friday...Mainly VFR with a small chance for afternoon showers and thunderstorms at RME. Saturday through Monday...Mostly VFR, but some brief restrictions will be possible from showers early on Saturday. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MPK NEAR TERM...AJG/MPK SHORT TERM...BTL LONG TERM...BTL AVIATION...MPK is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.