Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 080008 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 808 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system over the Great Lakes will bring showers to the area tonight. Another round of showers are expected late Wednesday night into Thursday as the next low pressure system tracks across the Northeast U.S. Cool and windy conditions can be expected late in the week with the low meandering near the Gulf of Maine. High pressure builds into the region this weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 805 PM update... An area of showers is tracking across the forecast area this evening. Much of the initial precipitation did not reach the ground, as dew point depressions remain higher than 20 degrees in many places. As low level moisture increases, the showers will become more widespread late tonight. QPF will be light. Previous discussion... The area of high pressure that was responsible for the sunny and dry conditions the past few days will quickly lose its influence on the region tonight as it progresses farther offshore. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the Upper Midwest this afternoon will progress quickly to the east- southeast tonight. While this surface low tracks across the Great Lakes this evening, a warm front will lift northward toward the PA-NY border. The latest guidance has come into good agreement with this front struggling to make it much farther north than the Southern Tier of NY just past midnight before the low tracks through. The leading edge of the shower activity along the warm front is expected to arrive in our far western zones toward sunset and overspread the area from the west to east later in the evening. Showers tonight should generally be light and not widespread. However, a brief heavier shower or isolated thunderstorm is possible in the warm sector south of the warm front late this evening and overnight (best chance in the Southern Tier/NEPA between 12-4 AM). A cold front will quickly move southeastward through the area during the early morning hours as winds shift abruptly out of the northwest in wake of the low passage. PoPs quickly decrease behind the front. However, with a moist post-frontal flow off the Great Lakes, low clouds and isolated showers/sprinkles should persist through much of the day tomorrow. Forecast highs in the mid to upper 50s (except lower 60s in the Wyoming Valley) are generally a few degrees above climo. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... The next storm system will quickly approach from the northwest Wednesday night. PoPs increase from west to east overnight into early Thursday morning as the leading edge of showers arrive. The surface low is expected to deepen on Thursday as it moves across the Northeast U.S. PoPs and QPF are higher with this next system than the one tonight owing to a more amplified trough, higher PWATs, and overall better dynamics. Several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and moderate lift could support a narrow/broken line of convection just ahead of the cold front from about mid morning to early afternoon Thursday (especially across the Wyoming Valley). Despite a strong wind field aloft, do not anticipate much of a severe threat with model soundings definitively showing convection elevated in nature. We currently do not anticipate any hydrology issues with a showers/storms quickly progressing eastward and with forecast rainfall amounts generally a half inch or less. Isolated gusts above 30 mph are possible in southerly flow ahead of the front early Thursday. Northwest winds behind the front will strengthen as the low deepens over New England. Deep mixing in the afternoon could support peak gusts of 35-45 mph, especially late in the day. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... 200 PM update... Not much change to the long range from the overnight update. Wind speeds were increased for the day Friday due to steepening lapse rates up to 700 mb, mixing down those higher velocities. Right now the winds are just below advisory criteria but will have to be monitored for a potential wind advisory. Temperatures were also increased a few degrees along with lowering pops late Sunday into Monday as the upper level trough has slowed along with a more potent short wave developing in the Southeastern US that will help advect warmer air further northward. Previous update at 330 AM... An active pattern continues with big swings in temperatures. Saturday surface high pressure moves in while upper level heights rise. Warmer air aloft also. This will finally shut down the rain and snow showers Friday night and Saturday morning. Sunday a deep southwest flow will bring high temperatures in the 50s with rain showers but also steady rain Sunday night. For Monday probably still dealing with showers as an upper level trough starts to move into the Great Lakes. It should still be in the 40s and 50s Sunday night into Monday. Models show uncertainty on the timing and strength of the upper level trough. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Low pressure that is currently over Central Michigan will dive to the SE tonight into Western NY and across NE PA before exiting the coast south of Long Island tomorrow morning. This system will bring showers and possibly some thunderstorms overnight, but confidence was too low at this time to include thunderstorms in the TAFs. Expect ceiling and visibility restrictions overnight through Wed morning, with IFR or worse possible in heavier showers. Low ceilings may persist into late Wed morning or early afternoon, but we may see some improvement to VFR to the north...KRME and KSYR by noon. Otherwise, most locations remain MVFR into the afternoon. Finally, low level wind shear is going to be possible overnight just ahead of the low pressure system at KELM, KBGM and KAVP through early Wed morning. Outlook... Wednesday night...Ceilings lifting to VFR in the evening. Thursday...Restrictions likely in showers associated with a slow moving low pressure system. Windy. Thursday night through Friday night: Restrictions likely with rain and snow showers, windy. Saturday...Showers early, then becoming dry with minimal restrictions. Sunday...Additional restrictions possible as another low pressure system approaches the region. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JRK/MWG NEAR TERM...DJP/JRK SHORT TERM...JRK LONG TERM...AJG/TAC AVIATION...MPK

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