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000
FXUS61 KBGM 220230
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
930 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
Colder northwest flow will bring a few snow showers or flurries
to central New York overnight. A high pressure ridge then
brings dry weather to the entire area Friday through Saturday
before the next low pressure system brings a round of
precipitation later this weekend. Strong, gusty winds are
anticipated for much of the region Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM update...
Clouds continue dropping south this evening across central New
York as the flow becomes more northwest. The southern edge of
the cloud shield is currently working into the southern tier.
This cloud shield will work into the northern tier of
Pennsylvania overnight but not drop as far south as the Wyoming
Valley. Local radars show flurries/very light snow showers
east of Lake Ontario which will drop south to areas southeast of
Lake Ontario overnight as temperatures at 850mb drop to -11C.
Current forecast in good shape.

300 PM Update...

Generally quiet and seasonable weather expected for the near
term period.

Mostly cloudy north this evening, trending to mostly clear over
northeast PA. Temperatures fall back into the 30s with northwest
winds 10-20 mph.

A reinforcing cold front moves through tonight veering the flow
northwesterly, with 850mb temperatures falling to around -11C.
It will become mostly cloudy area wide overnight. There will be
just enough moisture around, enhanced by Lake Ontario and the
Finger lakes for a few light snow showers or flurries in Central
NY. Any snow amounts will be very light; less than a half inch.
Colder with lows in the 20s. NW winds 8-15 mph, slowly decrease
overnight.

Friday: Chilly northwest flow remains over the forecast area.
Stubborn lake effect flurries and clouds linger through at least
the morning hours for Central NY, with partly cloudy skies for
NE PA. Should see some breaks of sun during the afternoon across
much of Central NY, as the cloud deck thins and scatters with
high pressure moving in from the west. Highs will reach into the
30s. Lighter NW winds between 5 to 10 mph.

Friday night: Mostly clear, chilly and quiet as a surface high
builds directly over the forecast area. Lows in the 10s to
around 20. Winds light and variable.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
3PM Update...

Saturday...After a quiet start to the day, a powerful storm spinning
toward the Ohio Valley will spread rain into our forecast area
Saturday afternoon. Temperatures will climb into the lower-40s
during the day, but colder temperatures Saturday night will cause a
mix of rain and freezing rain or sleet to fall along our eastern NY
counties, mainly over the Western Catskills.

Sunday...The cyclone will track into Northern Michigan on Sunday and
pull very mild air and rain showers into NY and PA. Temperatures
will climb into the lower-50 Sunday afternoon with warmer
temperatures possible along the lake plain, before the cyclone drags
a strong cold front across our region and changes the rain showers
over to snow showers late Sunday night. The cyclone and cold front
will be accompanied by very gusty winds. At this time, the models
suggest potential for wind gusts in excess of 40 mph over a large
portion of the forecast area. Higher wind speeds are likely from the
Central Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes and into the high
terrain of the Western Mohawk Valley and Western Catskills. Stay
tuned for statements regarding the potential wind event.

Monday...Polar air behind the cyclone will pour into NY and PA
during this period. Scattered lake effect snow showers are
anticipated over northern sections of NY. Temperatures will reach
the lower or middle-30s on Monday, then fall into the teens Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
300 PM Update

Some lingering lake effect snow showers are possible on
Tuesday, mainly in the morning in CNY, then ending as high
pressure slides to the east and winds shift to a more easterly
direction. Then a weak wave may move into the area from the
midwest, which may bring a chance of light snow Tuesday night
into Wednesday. There is still quite a bit of uncertainty
regarding the track, timing, and strength of this system. Then
some lake effect snow showers are possible Wednesday night in
CNY. High pressure then likely builds in for Thursday, bringing
drier conditions.

Temperatures during this period will remain seasonable with highs
generally in the mid 20s to mid 30s and lows generally in the teens
and lower 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A weak boundary will drop through the region later this evening
shifting the winds to the northwest and bringing lake clouds
across central New York. At KSYR/KRME, overcast skies around 4k
feet will lower to MVFR around 06Z then improve to VFR by late
morning Friday. At KITH/KELM/KBGM, scattered high clouds will be
followed by MVFR ceilings beginning around 04Z. Conditions are
expected to improve to VFR by late morning. At KAVP, VFR
conditions are forecast through the TAF period.

West winds around 10 knots becoming northwest overnight and
continuing through Friday.

Outlook...

Saturday...VFR as high pressure builds overhead.

Saturday night through Sunday morning...Restrictions likely
with rain, perhaps briefly mixed with sleet at first. Low level
wind shear likely Saturday night from strong SSW low level jet.

Sunday afternoon through Monday...Rain showers changing back to
snow showers but also mainly impacting the NY terminals with
intermittent restrictions. Strong gusty winds expected,
especially KSYR.

Monday night and Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MJM
NEAR TERM...MJM/RRM
SHORT TERM...DJP
LONG TERM...BJG
AVIATION...RRM