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283
FXUS61 KBGM 181742
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
142 PM EDT Tue May 18 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring mostly sunny skies and warm
temperatures to the region through the week. High pressure
starts to break down by the weekend with a threat for showers
and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
140 PM Update...

Big bubble, no trouble. Ridging will be centered over the region
through the period. Other than a few diurnal Cu popping up with
afternoon heating today and tomorrow, we can expect mostly sunny
skies and above average temperatures. Models tend to go too high
for low temperatures in this pattern and too cool for highs,
with generally large diurnal shifts in temperatures from
morning to afternoon. Went slightly above persistence for
forecast lows overnight tonight, as heights have increased some,
so thinking it should be a few degrees warmer than last night.
With plenty of sunshine tomorrow, highs should easily climb
into the 80s for most areas, with a few of the warmer spots
topping out in the upper 80s. The light winds and good
radiational cooling tonight may produce some patchy river valley fog,
but any fog that does develop will quickly burn off just after
sunrise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
3 am update...

Upper level ridge of high pressure will be centered directly
overhead Wednesday night into Thursday. This will keep
conditions dry, under mostly clear skies Wednesday night...and
mild with lows in the 50s. Some instability develops, with a
modest increase in moisture Thursday afternoon. This should
allow for partly sunny skies, with an outside chance for a stray
shower/storm. It will warm, with well above average temperatures
(10-15 above avg); however humidity levels will remain low,
with dew points only in the 50s. High temperatures are forecast
to reach 80-85 across the region, as 850mb temperatures soar to
around +13.5C. Staying mainly dry and warm Thursday night, with
again just a slight chance for a stray shower...mainly across
our eastern zones. Overnight lows only dip down into the mid-50s
to lower 60s.

Another quasi-warm frontal boundary pushes through early
Friday, bringing even higher heights,thickness and 850mb
temperatures around +14C. Therefore decided to go 1-3 degrees
higher than NBM guidance for max Ts on Friday, but some
questions on how much cloud cover will be around...which may
impact just how high temperatures can reach. There will also a
slight chance for a few afternoon t`storms around. Overall,
still expecting highs in the upper 70s to mid-80s Friday
afternoon, with surface dew points nudging up slightly between
55-60 degrees...so not very humid. The upper level ridge axis
begins to retrograde west Friday night, with our area under a
developing northwest flow patter on the periphery of the ridge.
Mainly dry and partly cloudy weather expected, but cannot rule
out a few showers; mainly across our northern zones. Warm with
lows mainly in the upper 50s to low 60s, about 15 degrees warmer
than average.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
3am update...

Remaining warmer than average, with at least a few chances for
showers and thunderstorms in the extended period. Overall, a
good deal of uncertainty timing the individual weak fronts and
disturbances on the northern edge of the upper level ridge.

On Saturday, the upper level ridge axis builds north, centered
near Lake Michigan. This will again put our area under a
northwest flow pattern, with guidance indicating several
shortwave disturbances riding along the northern periphery of
the flattening ridge. With guidance indicating moderate amounts
of instability and moisture, went ahead and introduce a chance
of thunderstorms areawide in the afternoon. Still warm and a
little humid (dew points around 60) with forecast highs in the
mid-70s to lower 80s. A stronger trough up north in eastern
Canada may flatten the ridge further on Sunday; perhaps dragging
a cold front through the region. Instability and moisture once
again build out ahead of this disturbance and there will be a
chance for showers and thunderstorms; especially for CNY. Very
similar temperatures expected.

Still alot of uncertainty for early next week, but now the
latest guidance wants to bring a Canadian high with conditions
drying, and slightly cooler Monday. Highs would be back down
in the 70s, except still around 80 Wyoming Valley. Then, another
warm front pushes back north through our region Monday night
with shower chances. Current guidance has an area of low
pressure passing by to the north next Tuesday, with our area in
the warm sector and plenty of instability. This would mean at
least scattered showers and storms, but warmer with highs back
in the upper 70s to mid-80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
140 PM update...

Expect a continuation of VFR conditions through the next 24
hours. There may be some patchy valley fog overnight that may
affect ELM, but confidence in fog development is too low at
this time to add to the forecast.

Outlook...

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday...VFR and dry.

Friday through Sunday...Afternoon showers and storms possible
with restrictions if they hit any terminals, otherwise VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MPK
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...MJM
LONG TERM...MJM
AVIATION...MPK