Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 242347 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 747 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will keep conditions dry with near normal temperatures through Wednesday. The weather then turns unsettled late Thursday through Friday with showers and thunderstorms expected across the area. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 625 PM Update: Made some minor adjustments to sky cover for tonight (slightly increased it), but otherwise the forecast remains largely on track. Also removed any PoPs from the forecast for early this evening as any isolated sprinkles will not be measurable. 130 PM Update... Clouds have stuck around for most of the day in the Southern Tier into NEPA today with fair weather cumulus filtering the sun across the Finger Lakes into CNY. With turbulent flow below the subsidence inversion and deep enough cloud depths this afternoon, there is a non zero chance of some sprinkles in the Finger Lakes region. With mid and upper level ridging building in tonight, overnight lows will be a little bit warmer than they were last night. With higher heights tomorrow and similar amounts of sun as today, highs will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow with dry weather expected. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 3 PM Update... One more nice day before unsettled weather returns to end the week. High pressure should hold through the day on Thursday with the upper ridge axis moving east of the area through the day Thursday. Although clouds will increase from the south through the day on Thursday, any showers with an approaching upper level low/trough should hold off until late Thursday night/Friday morning. High temperatures will be warmest along the Finger Lakes Region, where sunshine should hold on the longest Thursday afternoon, with mid to upper 70s and further south highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 315 PM Update... Models continue to show a lack of consistency for how the pattern will shape up this weekend. After several runs showing an upper level low lingering over the region through the weekend, the 12Z guidance does a complete flip flop, with now the low being progressive and high pressure building back in by Saturday afternoon. Ensembles are also showing this drier scenario now for the weekend, with Friday being the washout day. Due to the lack of model consistency, stayed with mostly an ensemble approach for the forecast this weekend, which still gives a chance of rain on Saturday, but turns the bulk of the region to only slight chance PoPs Saturday night through Sunday. Although the timing of how long the rain will persist this weekend is still in question, confidence is increasing that strong high pressure with warm and dry conditions will build in behind this system by next week and possibly as early as Sunday. && .AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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VFR conditions will persist through the period with light southerly winds. Northerly lake breeze at SYR will become variable after sunset. Outlook... Wednesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Thursday night through Friday...Low pressure system brings likely showers-isolated thunder and associated restrictions. Friday night through Sunday...A lowering chance of rain showers this weekend with mostly VFR conditions expected.
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&& .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/MDP SHORT TERM...MPK LONG TERM...JTC/MPK AVIATION...MPH/MPK

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