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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
000
FXUS61 KBGM 242347
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
747 PM EDT Tue May 24 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep conditions dry with near normal
temperatures through Wednesday. The weather then turns unsettled
late Thursday through Friday with showers and thunderstorms
expected across the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
625 PM Update:

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover for tonight (slightly
increased it), but otherwise the forecast remains largely on
track. Also removed any PoPs from the forecast for early this
evening as any isolated sprinkles will not be measurable.

130 PM Update...
Clouds have stuck around for most of the day in the Southern
Tier into NEPA today with fair weather cumulus filtering the sun
across the Finger Lakes into CNY. With turbulent flow below the
subsidence inversion and deep enough cloud depths this
afternoon, there is a non zero chance of some sprinkles in the
Finger Lakes region.

With mid and upper level ridging building in tonight, overnight
lows will be a little bit warmer than they were last night. With
higher heights tomorrow and similar amounts of sun as today,
highs will be about 5 degrees warmer tomorrow with dry weather
expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
3 PM Update...

One more nice day before unsettled weather returns to end the
week. High pressure should hold through the day on Thursday with
the upper ridge axis moving east of the area through the day
Thursday. Although clouds will increase from the south through
the day on Thursday, any showers with an approaching upper
level low/trough should hold off until late Thursday
night/Friday morning. High temperatures will be warmest along
the Finger Lakes Region, where sunshine should hold on the
longest Thursday afternoon, with mid to upper 70s and further
south highs will be in the upper 60s to low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
315 PM Update...

Models continue to show a lack of consistency for how the
pattern will shape up this weekend. After several runs showing
an upper level low lingering over the region through the
weekend, the 12Z guidance does a complete flip flop, with now
the low being progressive and high pressure building back in by
Saturday afternoon. Ensembles are also showing this drier
scenario now for the weekend, with Friday being the washout day.
Due to the lack of model consistency, stayed with mostly an
ensemble approach for the forecast this weekend, which still
gives a chance of rain on Saturday, but turns the bulk of the
region to only slight chance PoPs Saturday night through Sunday.
Although the timing of how long the rain will persist this
weekend is still in question, confidence is increasing that
strong high pressure with warm and dry conditions will build in
behind this system by next week and possibly as early as Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
VFR conditions will persist through the period with light
southerly winds. Northerly lake breeze at SYR will become
variable after sunset.

Outlook...

Wednesday Night through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

Thursday night through Friday...Low pressure system brings
likely showers-isolated thunder and associated restrictions.

Friday night through Sunday...A lowering chance of rain showers
this weekend with mostly VFR conditions expected.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AJG/BJG
NEAR TERM...AJG/BJG/MDP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...JTC/MPK
AVIATION...MPH/MPK