Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 180554 AFDBGM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Binghamton NY 154 AM EDT Sun Mar 18 2018 .SYNOPSIS... Temperatures will remain below normal through the coming week. However, our weather will also be fairly quiet, with high pressure mostly in control. There is a small chance for a system to skim by the Poconos and Catskills Tuesday into Wednesday, but at this time it appears more likely that it will miss our region by staying southeast. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... The forecast challenge heading into the overnight continues to be how fast the temperatures will fall. Winds have been slow to come down early this evening which has prevented a steep dropoff. The latest data still shows the winds going light overnight. So this looks like a case of delayed but not denied in terms of a very cold tonight. Lows were raised slightly from the previous update but the overall expectation is for a very cold night with temperatures in the teens and single digits. Another potential wild card overnight is whether or not some cloud debris, currently up over Lake Superior, ends up making it to NY and PA. There are conflicting model signals in this regard, but given the dry nature of the resident air mass, we`ll side towards the less cloud cover scenario. This would also produce a longer period of radiational cooling, likely leading to some very cold readings prior to daybreak. For this reason, we undercut a consensus of higher resolution temperature guidance. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/... 250 pm update... Expansive surface high pressure, nosing down out of central/eastern Canada, will keep us dry and fairly cold during this period. The passage of another weak short-wave and surface trough in the prevailing NW flow pattern aloft on Sunday, could produce some patchy cloudiness, especially across our northern zones. However, that is about all that would alter a clear-partly cloudy stretch, with persistent below normal temperatures for mid to late March. Daytime highs both days should range from the upper 20s-upper 30s, with a few lower 40s possible in the normal milder valleys of the Finger Lakes region and NEPA. Overnight lows Sunday will be cold again, generally dropping into the single digits and teens. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... 315 PM update... Not much change to the extended forecast. Latest model guidance continues to suppress a coastal system just to the south of the area in the Monday night through Tuesday time period. This trend continues to decrease the potential for a significant accumulating snowfall in most, if not all of our forecast area. Models seem to be coming into better agreement that the steady precipitation (likely in the form of snow) would be mainly along and south of I-78/I-80 corridor. There is still some potential the system could edge north slightly in the coming days, possibly bringing light snow to most of our NE PA zones and Sullivan county NY (much like the latest 12z Canadian model indicates). There will be a very sharp cutoff of the precipitation on the north side of this system as cold/dry air feeds into it from a Canadian high pressure system to the north. We will have to keep a close eye on this storm system in the coming days, as a relatively small shift north (around 100-120 miles) would allow potentially significant snowfall to move into parts of our forecast area. Overall confidence remains low to moderate with this system still. The first wave moves off the east coast and away from the area Tuesday night, then another wave of low pressure develops along the North Carolina coast on Wednesday. All current indications are that this low pressure system and its associated moisture will move well off the East Coast and away from our area...with little to no impact mid-week. At this time, it seems a relatively dry, broad upper level trough will move into our area for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday. Skies should be partly to mostly cloudy during this period, with perhaps a few lake effect flurries around. Confidence does remain high that temperatures will stay well below average through the upcoming week. Highs will be mainly in the upper 20s to 30s, with overnight lows in the teens or lower 20s. This is a solid 10-15 degrees below the seasonal average. By next Saturday, an anomalous, cold upper level low will be located over Quebec/Ontario to our north. At the same time another system with additional moisture will begin approach the area from the west. This could certainly lead to a period of snow for next weekend. Temperatures look to remain rather steady, and below normal, with highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. Previous Discussion Below.... Latest medium range models are continuing to trend farther south with the potential mid week winter storm. The ECMWF is farther south than the GFS which would only give light amounts of snowfall to the far southeast forecast area. The ECMWF is a total miss. On Tuesday a mid level wave moves off the mid Atlantic coast with the surface reflection just brushing the far southeast forecast area. Another wave digging on the back side of the upper level trough Tuesday night initiates a secondary surface low off the southeast coast. This system moves off the southeast coast on Wednesday and remains well south and east of the local area. This is a very complex system due to the upper level waves, much uncertainty still exists. Will continue mention in the HWO but for only much of northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills. In general have backed off on the pops Tuesday through Wednesday with low chance pops northeast Pennsylvania and the western Catskills with slight chance elsewhere. Thursday through Saturday looks primarily dry with a persistent upper level trough over the northeast and high pressure over eastern Canadian. The extended period will remain cold with lows generally running in the teens to lower 20s and high in the 30s. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure and a dry atmosphere will mostly yield quiet conditions through the TAF period. However, the only exception is that a weak shallow cool front will slip over the area late today into this evening. This will allow an initially VFR deck of clouds to drop north to south over the area, in the 4-7 kft agl range. Eventually, around 04Z-06Z Monday, high end MVFR ceilings will be realized at KBGM-KITH-KELM but probably not dipping quite into MVFR for KSYR-KRME, and it will struggle to reach KAVP. Not long after, the ceilings will tend to scatter out as we head more into Monday. Light north or variable wind early this morning, becomes NW 5-10 knots late morning through afternoon before slacking in evening. Outlook... Monday through Monday night...VFR. Tuesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR. Small chance of snow and restrictions at KAVP on Tuesday; system probably staying south. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MDP NEAR TERM...MLJ/MWG SHORT TERM...MLJ LONG TERM...MJM/RRM AVIATION...MDP is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.