Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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000 FXUS61 KBGM 270223 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Binghamton NY 1023 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2019 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will build into the area with drier air for tonight and Thursday. Another frontal boundary and area of low pressure will give us another chance of showers and thunderstorms late Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... 1020 PM UPDATE...Showers have finally moved out of the area this evening and drier air is streaming in behind them. Updated the grids this evening to reflect the current trends in weather and temps. Previous discussion below. Rest of this afternoon into this evening: A band of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure will move through the region late this afternoon into the evening. These storms are currently producing some gusty winds with a few reports of tree damage in the Homer area of Cortland County. The HRW NSSL appears to have the best handle of storm coverage and timing with the highest chances across the I-81 corridor in NY through the late afternoon shifting into the Southern Catskills and far NE PA briefly early this evening. A few locations could see a quick 1/4 to 1/2 inch of rain but these storms are moving eastward at a decent clip. A look at modeled soundings still shows some hail growth throughout the CAPE profile, so a few of these storms could contain some hail. Shear however is still limited for widespread strong to severe storms. Tonight: Skies should clear with light winds behind the band of storms. Dewpoint depressions look to stay wide enough to prevent fog formation for most locations overnight though. However, it can not be ruled out in locations that see some heavy downpours late this afternoon. Lows tonight look to fall to around 60. Thursday and Thursday night: High pressure to our south will likely have enough influence on our weather pattern for a precipitation free period However, clouds will likely some Thursday night given the approach of a cold front heading southeast toward the region from Canada. Southwesterly flow on the backside of the high will result in another warm day. With 925 mb temperatures modeled around 20C, most locations should get into the low 80`s. Lows Thursday night look a couple of degrees warmer than tonight given more clouds and weak southerly flow. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... 3 PM Update... A wave of low pressure is dropping southeast through the Great Lakes on Friday. A warm front will move through during the day but with the lack of moisture it will remain mainly dry until late in the day. At that time a weak front drops southeast followed by a much stronger front Saturday. Air mass will be unstable with dewpoints in the low 60s and temperatures in the 80s starting Friday afternoon. The best chance will be closer to the surface low over southeast Ontario. Cape may exceed 1k with 40 kts of deep shear. In NEPA conditions are more stable with less wind. SPC has the area in a marginal threat again. Threat will be damaging winds mostly late afternoon to evening. This low moves into northern New England Saturday. Meanwhile the low starts to become stacked as the upper level low drops into southeast Canada from Hudson Bay. Saturday, more showers and thunderstorms will be possible with the cold front. Models disagree on the timing. Highs cooler and only around 80 with more clouds and showers. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... 3 pm update... Not much change in the long term period. Mostly unsettled weather continues. Sunday on the west side of an upper level trough and northwest flow. Still some showers and thunderstorms possible. Sunday night and Monday may be the only dry period as high pressure builds in at the surface and aloft. After that back into a zonal flow with a cold front dropping southeast through the area. Model disagreement on timing. Some models are slowly keeping it dry into Monday night and others are faster so Wednesday could be dry behind the front. Temperatures slowly warm this period. Highs start in the 70s Sunday then slowly rise to around 80 Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows in the mid and upper 50s Sunday night rise to the low 60s Tuesday night. && .AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Conditions will be mainly VFR throughout the TAF period with the exception of valley fog impacting the KELM terminal between 08-12Z. Winds will be light from the W/NW tonight and increase to 10 to 15 kt with FEW-SCT fair weather cumulus developing in the afternoon under a building surface high pressure. Winds become light and variable or calm after 22Z. Outlook... Thursday evening through midday Friday...Mainly VFR. Friday afternoon through Sunday...Occasional chances for scattered showers-thunderstorms and associated restrictions. Sunday night and Monday... VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...DGM/MWG NEAR TERM...DGM/MWG SHORT TERM...TAC LONG TERM...TAC AVIATION...BJT/MWG

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