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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
894
FXUS61 KBGM 141101
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
701 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will blow through today, with some extra passing
clouds and perhaps even a few brief sprinkles in parts of
Central New York. Fairly quiet weather will continue through
Tuesday night. However, a low pressure system will bring rain
area wide on Wednesday, followed by chilly and blustery
conditions later this week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
420 AM Update...
Fairly quiet weather is anticipated today through Tuesday,
though not without some features of influence.

High pressure has already bypassed the area and is pushing
offshore, making room for the weak cold front now edging into
the Finger Lakes. That said, the legacy of the high pressure is
an abundance of dry air still resident over our region. This
will make showers difficult to muster for the front as it moves
west to east through the region today. A fair amount of clouds
will at least get into Central New York, and perhaps even a few
light showers especially in western Steuben-Yates. Northeast PA
meanwhile will end up with more sunshine other than a brief
deck of early morning clouds along/east of I-81, and probably
not a single raindrop. Winds will veer westerly and pick up
somewhat behind the front, with cool air advection stopping
temperatures from rising above the 50s in the Central Southern
Tier through Finger Lakes and the NY Thruway corridor including
Syracuse- Utica. Further south, enough initial warming will
occur for lower 60s at least in the valleys, and perhaps even
some mid 60s in the Delaware Valley of Sullivan-Pike Counties.

Much of the area will fall into the 30s for lows tonight, though
there will also still be a bit of pressure gradient wind at least
in the evening, as well as lake clouds extending through parts
of the area and even lake effect sprinkles north of the NY
Thruway. High pressure will nose into Northeast PA-Southern Tier
NY near dawn. There may be some patchy frost, but details of
locations will depend on especially on where lake clouds turn
out to be absent.

Quiet and dry Tuesday, as high pressure skims by the area, with
plenty of sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
400 AM UPDATE...

High pressure pushes out into the Gulf of Maine by Wednesday
morning as a vertically stacked low moves across the Great
Lakes with a strong surface cold front extending across Western
NY and south into the Ohio Valley. The front should plow through
the region Wednesday afternoon with showers and possibly even
some thunderstorms. By Wednesday evening, a Coastal Low develops
and rapidly deepens, however models currently disagree on the
placement and track of this feature at this time.

The intensity and exact track of this coastal low will have huge
implications on the forecast for Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. The GFS, keeps the low further out to sea and tracks
the low right over the 70/40 benchmark with the bulk of any
heavy rain falling to our east across Southern New England.

However, the Euro has a much more intense low developing and
tracking over Long Island and then northeast into New England.
This scenario would likely bring some impactful weather to our
area, with heavy rainfall to the Catskills, especially the
eastern Catskills and also winds gusts would be much stronger.
Flooding would be the main concern, even with the fairly dry
antecedent conditions and WPC has introduced a large Marginal
Excessive Rainfall risk for Day 3. However, due to the
uncertainty/spread in the models at this time, will hold off
mentioning in the HWO for now and would like to see better
agreement with the 12Z runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
415 AM UPDATE...

As mentioned in the short term discussion, the track of the
coastal low will determine how the forecast turns out for
Thursday morning. As Euro would keep the possibility for heavy
rain across the Catskills through Thursday morning and possibly
into Thursday afternoon. For now, a blend of model guidance
brings in strong NW flow with low clouds and moisture pushing
southeastward off Lake Ontario. At the very least, we can expect
some showers Thursday outside of NE PA.

Cold air advection will pick up through the day, and with a
tight pressure gradient, wind gusts will be quite strong,
especially across the higher terrain.

High pressure builds back into the area on Friday as ridge
starts to build across the Eastern U.S. This should help
temperatures warm back up, after the cool and blustery day on
Thursday. A warming trend may continue right through next
weekend as ridge overtakes the Eastern U.S.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
With a fuel alternate deck letting go of KAVP right around 12Z,
VFR conditions are generally expected through this TAF period
for all terminals with the following slight caveats. For the NY
terminals, a VFR ceiling around 4-6 kft will exist along and
behind a passing weak cold front for a time midday through
afternoon, and perhaps even a sprinkle or two. There is a small
chance that KSYR-KRME-KITH-KBGM could briefly dip into MVFR. As
the front moves through the area, winds will veer from light
southeast/south, to west/eventually northwest 8-12 knots midday
through afternoon before slackening tonight. Late tonight, KELM
could potentially get valley fog but there will also be lake
effect clouds in the vicinity which may prevent it from forming.
Confidence is pretty low and so that fog has not been included
in the KELM TAF for now.

Outlook...

Tuesday through Tuesday night...Mainly VFR.

Wednesday into Wednesday night...Restrictions expected as low
pressure system moves through the region with rain showers.

Thursday through Thursday night...Scattered showers and minor
restrictions, especially for the NY terminals.

Friday...Mainly VFR.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MDP
NEAR TERM...MDP
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...MDP